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Posted
  • Location: West Wick, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Heat, Snow, Gales
  • Location: West Wick, North Somerset

looking like tuesday will be another marginal event for here us in the Bristol area :yahoo: - lampost and window watching any1? :yahoo:

I Have a good feeling for our neck of the woods, i think it could fall as snow, giving us a covering. the update shows the so called "warm sector" out further west over Ireland and the chance of the front stalling, its just where and if at all it does stall raises the question. but like i say i have no doubt we will get some snow from this! we will just have to wait and see (Y)

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Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

This is good..right? What does it mean? Sorry - havent a clue! pardon.gif

Hi Khodds,

In the most basic sense, imagine a trough (it's those black lines, without any triangular additions etc., on the chart) as having characteristics rather akin to a mini cold front (purists: yes, I know, it's far more complex so keep the critique on this for a science book!!)

Effectively, they signal that - after passage of the main front you can see to the south - further spells of lively weather are likely to follow in it's wake, due to various disturbances in the flow, both up aloft and at other layers in the atmosphere.

If it was a summer chart (and, say, reversed so those black lines were advancing from the SSW off Bay of Biscay), we'd tend to imagine a thunderstorm risk associated with them - or at least, some towering clouds bringing rain at times.

In this case, it suggests the very cold flow sinking from the north could yield some additional 'oomph' at times as those troughs pass downwards, perhaps quite widely across England and sinking south, albeit the degree of east-versus-west forcing along those lines (in simple terms, intensification from various atmospheric processes and the resultant precipitation we see, be it snow, rain or whatever) is the key to any local/regional forecast.

For this reason, it's a tricky forecast to give locally, at a timeframe that is so far ahead..... but it clearly suggests the risk of localised snow showers into a fairly wide swathe of England, with some areas seeing much more snowfall than others (mostly to the east).

Best

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester

-3.7C here now - looks as if the cold weather has finally arrived here!

R

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset

looking like tuesday will be another marginal event for here us in the Bristol area smile.gif - lampost and window watching any1? whistling.gif

why do you say that?

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Hi Khodds,

In the most basic sense, imagine a trough (it's those black lines, without any triangular additions etc., on the chart) as having characteristics rather akin to a mini cold front (purists: yes, I know, it's far more complex so keep the critique on this for a science book!!)

Effectively, they signal that - after passage of the main front you can see to the south - further spells of lively weather are likely to follow in it's wake, due to various disturbances in the flow, both up aloft and at other layers in the atmosphere.

If it was a summer chart (and, say, reversed so those black lines were advancing from the SSW off Bay of Biscay), we'd tend to imagine a thunderstorm risk associated with them - or at least, some towering clouds bringing rain at times.

In this case, it suggests the very cold flow sinking from the north could yield some additional 'oomph' at times as those troughs pass downwards, perhaps quite widely across England and sinking south, albeit the degree of east-versus-west forcing along those lines (in simple terms, intensification from various atmospheric processes and the resultant precipitation we see, be it snow, rain or whatever) is the key to any local/regional forecast.

For this reason, it's a tricky forecast to give locally, at a timeframe that is so far ahead..... but it clearly suggests the risk of localised snow showers into a fairly wide swathe of England, with some areas seeing much more snowfall than others (mostly to the east).

Best

Ian

Hi Ian,

Im just wondering which models the guys down at exeter are using for dew points at the moment. Just seems that in my humble and unexperienced opinion the dew points are the key to the marginality suggested by the Met Office and yourselves, however the only model we really get to see with dew point output is the GFS - which suggests that away from the west coast of wales inland certainly no problems with dew points sub zero

Also thankyou for answering the above and my appologies to the poster of the question - I get a little carried away and don't explain myself properly :D

Kind Regards

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Hi Khodds,

In the most basic sense, imagine a trough (it's those black lines, without any triangular additions etc., on the chart) as having characteristics rather akin to a mini cold front (purists: yes, I know, it's far more complex so keep the critique on this for a science book!!)

Effectively, they signal that - after passage of the main front you can see to the south - further spells of lively weather are likely to follow in it's wake, due to various disturbances in the flow, both up aloft and at other layers in the atmosphere.

If it was a summer chart (and, say, reversed so those black lines were advancing from the SSW off Bay of Biscay), we'd tend to imagine a thunderstorm risk associated with them - or at least, some towering clouds bringing rain at times.

In this case, it suggests the very cold flow sinking from the north could yield some additional 'oomph' at times as those troughs pass downwards, perhaps quite widely across England and sinking south, albeit the degree of east-versus-west forcing along those lines (in simple terms, intensification from various atmospheric processes and the resultant precipitation we see, be it snow, rain or whatever) is the key to any local/regional forecast.

For this reason, it's a tricky forecast to give locally, at a timeframe that is so far ahead..... but it clearly suggests the risk of localised snow showers into a fairly wide swathe of England, with some areas seeing much more snowfall than others (mostly to the east).

Best

Ian

Thanks Ian - I understand now! Bet you are going to have a fun week this week.. I imagine there might be one or two headaches before the week is out..

Kate

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Just seen Dan Corbett's national forecast on the BBC.

And to me it seemed like a upgrade with the front giving from 5cm-10cm of snow in some places.

This was across the South Wales across diagonally to the North East UK for Tuesday.

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Touch & go again for us in the south west it's never straight forward though is it.

Some will do well out of this front on Tuesday, but I feel Weston being near the coast will be marginal?

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Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

Just saw Dan Corbett's national forecast on the BBC.

And to me it seemed like a upgrade with the front giving from 5cm-10cm of snow in some places.

This was across the South Wales across diagonally to the North East UK for Tuesday.

We've literally just received the very latest expert guidance from UKMO for next week off the modified GM and it's a raft of regional forecast headaches developing, me thinks. I have run out of time to embellish here, but the new run offers a risk into the SW/W towards Thurs/Fri due to some key variance in positioning the low off SE England and key change from last GM runs. I can't offer the modified graphics right now as they're very fresh from our UKMO colleagues, but this needs to be watched, I assure you. I'm unexpectedly back on early shifts this week from tomorrow due to sickness, so have to go and ready myself for an early night and 0300 alarm..... meantime take care, y'all, it's going to be an interesting week (and more).

Best

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

its just hit -3.0c here and its only 1920, its going to be a cold onecold.gifcold.gif

fromeyblum.gif

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Posted
  • Location: West Wick, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Heat, Snow, Gales
  • Location: West Wick, North Somerset

Touch & go again for us in the south west it's never straight forward though is it.

Some will do well out of this front on Tuesday, but I feel Weston being near the coast will be marginal?

I Wouldnt Be so Sure, you dont really have to go that far inland for it to turn from sleet to snow and start to accumulate. i have hope for you down in weston, i think you may get snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Cheers Ian, sounds interesting. Hope Tuesday/Wednesday event is still on?

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

cheers Ian,

see you on the local TV..lol..around 6.30am -ish..

We all look forward to your forecasts this week good.gif

Ian's fast becoming a weather legend in these parts, don't you all agree?

That seemed to be a nice little tease in his sign-off post this evening, me thinks!whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

I dont think i can handle the wait and see anymore.

One second its all go then the next its nothing.

The ITV weather was showing snow for glos and snow showers for the SW ( btol etc )

How accurate this is is anybodys guess and im sure it will change

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Ian's fast becoming a weather legend in these parts, don't you all agree?

That seemed to be a nice little tease in his sign-off post this evening, me thinks!whistling.gif

yes good forecaster!!

Many thing's are changing like he said a forecaster's headache

edit...pic earlier had me in tear's...truly hilarious.

wonted to post on the S/E thread but couldn't down load..lol

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Good luck Ian! Sounds as though you might need it

One thing thats just occurred to me rather stupidly not to investigate why we see such strong vortical lift on wednesday morning

And the answer...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs635.gif

Convergence zone from the looks of things?

SK

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We've literally just received the very latest expert guidance from UKMO for next week off the modified GM and it's a raft of regional forecast headaches developing, me thinks. I have run out of time to embellish here, but the new run offers a risk into the SW/W towards Thurs/Fri due to some key variance in positioning the low off SE England and key change from last GM runs. I can't offer the modified graphics right now as they're very fresh from our UKMO colleagues, but this needs to be watched, I assure you. I'm unexpectedly back on early shifts this week from tomorrow due to sickness, so have to go and ready myself for an early night and 0300 alarm..... meantime take care, y'all, it's going to be an interesting week (and more).

Best

Ian

Cheers for your superb contributions.

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

I dont think i can handle the wait and see anymore.

One second its all go then the next its nothing.

The ITV weather was showing snow for glos and snow showers for the SW ( btol etc )

How accurate this is is anybodys guess and im sure it will change

BBC24 female forecaster just said significant snow fall for some Tuesday..

BUT didn't say where,dont know who she is as she is fairly new.

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

We've literally just received the very latest expert guidance from UKMO for next week off the modified GM and it's a raft of regional forecast headaches developing, me thinks. I have run out of time to embellish here, but the new run offers a risk into the SW/W towards Thurs/Fri due to some key variance in positioning the low off SE England and key change from last GM runs. I can't offer the modified graphics right now as they're very fresh from our UKMO colleagues, but this needs to be watched, I assure you. I'm unexpectedly back on early shifts this week from tomorrow due to sickness, so have to go and ready myself for an early night and 0300 alarm..... meantime take care, y'all, it's going to be an interesting week (and more).

Best

Ian

thanks ian :drinks: sounds intresting week ahead.

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