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Mondy

It Has A Gigantic Supercomputer, 1,500 Staff And A £170M-A-Year Budget

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Not my words! The article can be found here - some of the comments are eye-opening too!

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Typical Daily Mail guff.

I wonder if it mentions that Joe B, issues the same forecast every year. :lol:

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Click on the '5 day forecast' blue writing at the top right of that page.

Apparently it's going to be the mid-teens celsius this afternoon across the UK. Brilliant -you couldn't make it up!

Mind you this is the newspaper that is always holier than though on all matters, but is owned by some of the biggest tax avoidance merchants on this planet.

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Typical Daily Mail guff.

I wonder if it mentions that Joe B, issues the same forecast every year. 8)

Or have a headline: Joe B gets one right - It had to happen sooner-or-later!!! 8)

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Thanks for the link M-love that quote Shuggee

I've given up trying to make anyone be rational about things but just one point.

Robert Napier is NOT head of the Met Office-he is Chairman of the Met O Committee and as such is certainly not chosen by the Chief Executive of the Met Office.

I do love the Mail-I wonder how many people still believe its many many sensationalist stories-but a good read for FREE with a cuppa.

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It Has A Gigantic Supercomputer, 1,500 Staff And A £170M-A-Year Budget So why does the Met Office get it so wrong?

Minus the Supercomputer, much more staff and a much larger budget, i'm sure i've seen a similar 'Mail' article about The Royal Mail?

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The met have and always will be a complete joke , what's worse they now pander to the global warming crowd and constantly get themselves in a hole.... When they get it so badly wrong , they come out with rubbish to back up their forecasts as to make it seem that it was correct in the first place!

EDIT : I personally think we should have a national vote on if the met office is doing a good job ! , the met office needs a complete overhaul and soon!

I think your post is harsh to say "a complete joke". I don't for one see you issueing forecasts nevermind accurate ones at that. Weather is and always will be unpredictable, but we can always do our best and get conditions mostly right. If one thing is true, I would like to see that 170m budget lowered...I would personally deliver a UK wide forecast for £250 a week and although I'm not a professional I'd say I'd give any forecaster a run for their money....It's easy to predict with a lack of detail, its pinning down detail is the problem, and thats were all forecasters fail. Although some just fail miserably when they have a GW bias, you need to be open minded to make a clear decision.

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Maybe, everyone should 'adopt a Metman'? That way, there could be a Metman in everyone's livingroom. Just imagine??? A Metman in every home, everywhere - sending live information to MetO HQ 24/7!

Problem solved! :drunk:

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Not my words! The article can be found here - some of the comments are eye-opening too!

Bit like asking why if the Navy has 100,000 men, 100 warships and 1,000 aircraft, how can a group of sailors on an inflatbale be captured by the Iranians?

But the media do so like playing with straw men :good:

btw Booker writes virtually word for word the same nonsense in the Telegraph today, as well.

They really should start teaching kids the difference between weather and climate at school again. And maybe also that before criticising something it's usually best to read it and understand what it actually is ..... :unsure: )

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Minus the Supercomputer, much more staff and a much larger budget, i'm sure i've seen a similar 'Mail' article about The Royal Mail?

Oh, you mean Royal Fail? :unsure:

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Maybe, everyone should 'adopt a Metman'? That way, there could be a Metman in everyone's livingroom. Just imagine??? A Metman in every home, everywhere - sending live information to MetO HQ 24/7!

Problem solved! good.gif

ooh what a lovely idea

can I be one please?

I'm not much trouble (oh shut up admin and mods), house trained, the odd bottle of red and some reasonable food, and I'll churn out forecasts for you quite happily-well I'd want some dosh as well!

Adoption papers can be obtained by writing to

Mr J Holmes

ah

catch

you need my address-

oh well

nice thought!

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ooh what a lovely idea

can I be one please?

I'm not much trouble (oh shut up admin and mods), house trained, the odd bottle of red and some reasonable food, and I'll churn out forecasts for you quite happily-well I'd want some dosh as well!

Adoption papers can be obtained by writing to

Mr J Holmes

ah

catch

you need my address-

oh well

nice thought!

I want one! * jumps up and down*

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I'm sure this will interest some here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm

I think Andrew Neil is being harsh in parts - yes, the Met Office LRFs haven't been the best lately, but then it's nothing than educated guesses in most parts. Saying they shouldn't get a performance related bonus for getting these wrong is petty, when the short term forecasting is generally very good.

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If the UK's Councils had used Joe B's winter forecasts (instead of those provided by the MetO) over the past 10 years, the whole country would be buried under a mountain of grit! Maybe, that was what he was hoping: to raise our Sea Level by a couple of thousand feet!! :whistling:

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I see from the Telegraph that they are paying some nice "performance related bonuses" this year to. The Chief Exec now gets more than the PM. Is there a comparison to be made? :D

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I've just watched it and believe it or not found myself smiling most of the way through it.

Valid points which Andrew Neil raised but why oh why won't interviewers allow non politicians to answer each question. Stop them if they get long winded and appear to be making excuses but lest have some objective reporting. Give the Met O boss time to answer then all of us might actually learn something. There are obvious problems with their seasonal forecasts, they admit that and, as their boss tried to explain, with little success, they are experimental-for how long I've no idea. As to their 6-15 day forecasts then I'll go and have a look at the first class thread Stu runs in which almost all their daily outputs are kept. It will be interesting to find out if they made no mention of the current cold spell on the 26, 27 and 28 December as Andrew Marr stated. A bit damning if they did no.

I wonder who 'ALL' the American sites where that were predicting this spell are that he referred to?

Yes I smiled through it all-one can almost never get a proper question and answer with such people. One has to watch his interviewing of some politicians to realise that he, and other media interviewers, do have a different style when interviewing politicians from non politicians. Unfair some might say but then if you can't stand the heat in the kitchen as the saying goes, get out!

Probably not the response, some on the forum, might expect from me, but as I try to say I do like truth and balance even if it hurts.

I'll go and see if I can find the 6-15 day forecasts for 26, 27 and 28 December and drop them in here whatever they said.

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nothing found for 26th

nor 28th

if anyone has a copy please post it in here

Can’t find the 26th although a comment from Pete T on probably 25/26th said they were’ fence sitting on 25th’

27th is this

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Jan 2010 to Sunday 10 Jan 2010:

On Friday, and over next weekend it is expected to be generally cold with overnight frosts across most areas and occasional wintry showers affecting northern and eastern areas. There is also a risk of some rain or sleet, which may be persistent at times, affecting parts of the south over the weekend. Drier across central and western areas with overnight freezing fog which may persist locally. The following week looks likely to remain cold or even very cold in places, although perhaps closer to normal in the far south at times. Wintry showers look set to continue to affect northern and eastern areas for the rest of the period. There will be a further risk of bands of rain or sleet affecting southern parts at times.

Updated: 1203 on Sun 27 Dec 2009

28th = there was no post

29th=

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2010:

There will be a good deal of fine, dry and bright but cold weather across the UK from Sunday and through next week. Sleet and snow showers will affect many northern and eastern parts at times, perhaps becoming more persistent and spreading into some other regions from the middle of next week. Nights will be frosty, with frost locally severe in some areas, and overnight freezing fog will be slow to clear from some inland parts. There is uncertainty from next weekend onwards through the rest of the period with the strongest signal for the weather to remain generally cold with occasional wintry showers, though some western and southwestern parts may become less cold for a time.

Updated: 1154 on Tue 29 Dec 2009

It seems odd that by 27th they made fairly clear mention so it would have been interesting to see what they printed on 26th and on the 28th, as, to me, trying to be objective, I would say the prediction was a fair idea of what actually happened 7 days or so down the line.

Never ever believe a politician nor a media interviewer seems appropriate as well.

I doubt if I sent these two transcripts to Andrew Marr he would admit to being 'economical with the truth' though.

Mind you some of you may agree with what his overview was-to me it smacks, having read 2 of the judged forecast to have been somewhat unfair?

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Irrespective of some wrongs or exaggerations, their seasonal forecasts have been well below par and it is not unreasonable to expect a much better performance from them generally, but some aspects they are still excellent at...it does seem [though memory may be wrong] that they performed much better as an organisation 20-30 years ago.

BFTP

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:lol: Sir John...You'd be wasting your time sending transcripts to Andrew Marr. The interviewer was Andrew Neil... :D:oops:

That said. I agree with what you're saying...But, will 'seasonal' LRFs ever be reliable?

Irrespective of some wrongs or exaggerations, their seasonal forecasts have been well below par and it is not unreasonable to expect a much better performance from them generally, but some aspects they are still excellent at...it does seem [though memory may be wrong] that they performed much better as an organisation 20-30 years ago.

BFTP

Compared to whom, Fred - Piers Corbyn?? :rofl:

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bloody tripewriter Pete-said right name typed wrong one!

Irrespective of some wrongs or exaggerations, their seasonal forecasts have been well below par and it is not unreasonable to expect a much better performance from them generally, but some aspects they are still excellent at...it does seem [though memory may be wrong] that they performed much better as an organisation 20-30 years ago.

BFTP

best you trawl through their web site Fred, those stats are just the ones they HAVE to produce in their Annual Report, first to the Met O Committee and thence to Parliament, so if you search hard enough the actual figures they show Parliament will be there if you look long enough, whic will then either prove or disprove your theory.

Again, ever one for accuracy, I'd be very interested to see them if you do get them?

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bloody tripewriter Pete-said right name typed wrong one!

That's happening to me, too. Och well??? :oops:

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If the UK's Councils had used Joe B's winter forecasts (instead of those provided by the MetO) over the past 10 years, the whole country would be buried under a mountain of grit! Maybe, that was what he was hoping: to raise our Sea Level by a couple of thousand feet!! :pardon:

Yeh but then they wouldn't be a risk at running out.

Does grit go off???

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:lol: Sir John...You'd be wasting your time sending transcripts to Andrew Marr. The interviewer was Andrew Neil... :D;)

That said. I agree with what you're saying...But, will 'seasonal' LRFs ever be reliable?

Compared to whom, Fred - Piers Corbyn?? ;)

Tell you what Pete, he has been seriously better than Meto this year for sure....by a 'country mile'...very very good. John, what are your real thoughts on the forecasts we get..and I mean medium to long range. You seriously can't justify that they are good. 6-10 days pattern wise is pretty well picked up by many folk on here. Their winter LRFs have been basically way off the mark...summer not too good either. Remember we are trying to justify the money invested here...they should be far better than they are. Tell me, how are you so much better?...which you are...and Stewart.

Fred

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