General Model Output Discussion

[Tom D]

GEM still fancies building the high directly over us by end of next week. It's pretty much on its own for that set up at the moment.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?02-0

i would have thought unless we get a push from the ne then could possibly be the end of the cold spell,

and the alantic seems to be fired up on the last run of the ecm,

although i agree a very snowy end with strong se winds.

[kold weather]

The ECM is quite amazing at 240hrs as you say TEITS, undercutting LP which is slowly shearing of the east, pressure staying firm over the NE which keeps a cold SE flow coming in.

Also Badboy, the ECM is a stunner for the long term possiblity, notice the PV lobes that comes close to re-uniting at 168hrs once again splits well apart from each other yet again by 240hrs and therefore I'd imagine the long term evolution would be for a pressure rise over Greenland again.

Edited January 2, 2010 by kold weather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Evening Tamara.

I will add to SE members not to take too much notice of what I say (I never do!). I bet the flow i.e ENE,E,ly and the strength will change many times even right up until +48.

Very nice the ECM ends with a blizzard.

Indeed blizzard conditions for southern areas, a bit soon IMO by a couple of days HOWEVER I think folk should take not of this chart.

http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100102/12/ecmslp.240.png

This is the first sign of what the attempted breakdown may look like, but I believbe will result in atrocious conditions for the south and a very snowy scenario and will take two or three of these to eventually bring less cold air for most after a 5-7 day period [14-20 peak energy period] . For me this is a pickup on a trend that we will see.

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Another stunningly cold ECM run, similar to the 00z by giving an E'ly to all the BI rather than just the south, meaning that snow flurries and showers would stream into eastern scotland and england during week 2 with max temps sub zero in most areas, that goes for next week once the initial cold front spreads south during tuesday closely followed by a trough with even colder arctic air behind that. We really are lucky and should enjoy every minute of it as normally we are searching desperately in deep FI for cold set-ups in a typical british winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

thanks kold and thank bftp excellent explaining i understand a little more now.

my word im thinking maybe this will be a spell not seen in decades if models are right.

but ofcoarse there be right in the mid term absolutely the most amazing model outputs ive seen in my life starting to get the 80s feeling.

me is thinking bit of tainted love by softcell

Edited January 2, 2010 by badboy657

[Frosty.]

Come on then Atlantic, give it your best shot

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

That looks very February 1985 to me, feb 9th I think. This is beginning to look as though it will continue beyond mid month with such an enormous deep cold block forming over the uk and much of northern and western europe.

[J10]

The ECM is quite amazing at 240hrs as you say TEITS, undercutting LP which is slowly shearing of the east, pressure staying firm over the NE which keeps a cold SE flow coming in.

Also Badboy, the ECM is a stunner for the long term possiblity, notice the PV lobes that comes close to re-uniting at 168hrs once again splits well apart from each other yet again by 240hrs and therefore I'd imagine the long term evolution would be for a pressure rise over Greenland again.

There has been a consistent trend for the Greeny High to re establish itself over the longer time period, if this were indeed to happen, people could be talking about Jan 2010 for years to come.

[Rock Squad]

Still looking cold or very cold and dry.

The snow potential for most of us is always 4 days away....

[Michael Winston]

Looking at the next few days, the UKMO seem pretty certain that most of the U.K. will see some difficult conditions.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

The 60 / 72 hour charts seem particularly portentous!:lol:

Happy New Year to you all,

Regards,

Mike.

[VillagePlank]

The Met Office said it expected to see prolonged periods of snow across southern and central England ,

Weather expert's are saying these weather patern's and setup's are like the late 70's

sorry wrong thread

1979, mate.

It seems like this run is to be trusted for the near future, too! :lol:

There has been a consistent trend for the Greeny High to re establish itself over the longer time period, if this were indeed to happen, people could be talking about Jan 2010 for years to come.

The PFJ forecast is complex and is self-conflictary, unfortunately. Low pressure should dominate whilst high pressure builds over the UK and Scandinavia. I was absolutely convinced of that three days ago.

Now? It's up in th air. Pressure patterns look complex, not consistent with 300hPa, nor 500hPa, so, I would say - stuck in a rut. Which, of course, is a good thing for cold lovers.

There's no way out, until the PFJ moves north or dissipates. Some models are playing with a very weak jet much later on in the forecast, but, again, very unconvincing given troposhere heights, and some members are even playing with PFJ strength to our NW (which will happen, but only for a very short time)

I guess something will be nailed later on this week, but until then - very very cold, and, potentially, quite dry with it. Sucks the fun out of it, I reckon.

Looking at the next few days, the UKMO seem pretty certain that most of the U.K. will see some difficult conditions.

The 60 / 72 hour charts seem particularly portentous!

Cold and, crucially, dry. Unless the winds turn direct Northerly (arctic maritime) I don't see any potential for excessive snowfall. Cold, yes.

Edited January 2, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Michael Winston]

Still looking cold or very cold and dry.

The snow potential for most of us is always 4 days away....

Hi, Rock Squad and welcome to Netweather..

Have a squint at the fax charts - Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday seem particularly promising.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

Regards,

Mike.

[MR EXTREMES]

VP i dont see that.

the models are suggesting some exciting stuff and its already snowing around the country,

so i dont see a trend of total dry cold,

unless high pressure sits on top of us and although some runs have suggested this,

none of the big guns have yet:whistling:

Edited January 2, 2010 by badboy657

[Michael Winston]

Cold and, crucially, dry. Unless the winds turn direct Northerly (arctic maritime) I don't see any potential for excessive snowfall. Cold, yes.

Hi, VP.

Do you really think those fronts will be unproductive? I tend to agree with you, but I'm a hopeless optimist and am thus almost always disappointed.

Regards,

Mike.

[yamkin]

Come on then Atlantic, give it your best shot :lol:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Looks like the Atlantic may give you a shot, but the beautiful cold comes back in flying colours I'll show you a few charts in FI

[VillagePlank]

Make no bones about it - it is going to snow!

But the distribution, on the 12z, looks weak, even in favoured areas. However, if it precipitates, it will fall as snow almost everywhere.

Another corroberating factor is that pressure seems a little too high, and the temperatures look a little too low for 'normal' troughs and fronts to really make any inroads.

I know it's pessimistic, and probably, I am very wrong, but in my neck of the woods (Medway Towns) it looks very cold and dry. Anywhere North and East of say, the Watford Gap, looks good for at least a shower or two.

Down to nowcasting, I guess ... but remember it can be cold, and not snow - the breakdown will herald the biggest falls, I think.

Edited January 2, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Iceberg]

It really won't be dry, I think by the end of Wednesday 95% of the country will have a covering of snow. The front that moves down on Tuesday has a period of 2 hrs of medium snow, whilst there are clear signs of an LP forming in the SW of the front, providing maybe considerable snow for the SW and central england, maybe as far as the Midlands if the LP forms soon enough.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Whats amazing is +384 only takes us to mid Jan with 6 weeks still left of winter. In recent years we have had to wait until Feb before winter even begins.

I must admit if the 12Z verified I would probably welcome a milder spell from mid Jan onwards. Im going to dread my gas/elect bills if this continues! My own fault for paying quarterly.

A mean of -11C is quiet amazing for Cambs.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100102/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

The mean of -11 is pretty good, but the way there is so little variability until after the 7th in the ensembles is even more impressive

[VillagePlank]

It really won't be dry, I think by the end of Wednesday 95% of the country will have a covering of snow. The front that moves down on Tuesday has a period of 2 hrs of medium snow, whilst there are clear signs of an LP forming in the SW of the front, providing maybe considerable snow for the SW and central england, maybe as far as the Midlands if the LP forms soon enough.

oohh Mr Ice-ice-baby - that's a bit of speculation written up as fact. That front is reasonably weak given that it is coming in from a direction that already has the same atmospheric profile that is already over the UK - so what air-mass differential does it represent?

Convection is probabaly the key - and the skew-t charts aren't showing much of it, to be honest.

[tinybill]

this the best one so far for wednesday i can find

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/precipitations/102h.htm

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm amazed people think it will be dry. Which models show that? The latest BBC forecasts presumably based on UKMO data have an extensive area of snow sitting over central and eastern England on Tuesday.

Edited January 2, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[VillagePlank]

this the best one so far for wednesday i can find

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/precipitations/102h.htm

Yep - Northern East Anglia, and Far East Kent.

[Liam J]

excellent model outputs, somebody wake me up!!!!

i cannot remember seeing anything like this in my time on the net

ecm breakdown? looks like a blizzard to me and alot of interesting times to get through before we even think about a break down, the cold air will become entrenched and extremely difficult to shift.

-27c is the record low, and i wouldnt like to put any money on it not being broken!!!

this forecast suits this spell-

Edited January 2, 2010 by james12

[kold weather]

oohh Mr Ice-ice-baby - that's a bit of speculation written up as fact. That front is reasonably weak given that it is coming in from a direction that already has the same atmospheric profile that is already over the UK - so what air-mass differential does it represent?

Convection is probabaly the key - and the skew-t charts aren't showing much of it, to be honest.

Thats quite easy to answer, the front represents the difference between -6/7C at 850hpa over the UK on Tuesdays and the -10/11C temps we see coming down on Wednesday. The set-up doesn't really favour our location VP but places in the Midlands look good for snowfall...I'd suspect our fun would come once that low has cleared to our south.

Also lets not forget the easterly last December was at this stage progged to be fairly dry, ended up giving a heck of a lot more precip then the models out at 144hrs could have dreamed off!

[Alex95]

oohh Mr Ice-ice-baby - that's a bit of speculation written up as fact. That front is reasonably weak given that it is coming in from a direction that already has the same atmospheric profile that is already over the UK - so what air-mass differential does it represent?

Convection is probabaly the key - and the skew-t charts aren't showing much of it, to be honest.

No that cold front will at least bring a spell of light-moderate snow for a large part of the country, and the snow showers could come inland, they did in the NE yesterday bringing 10cm or more to some inland locations, so it could happen later on in the week elsewhere.