General Model Output Discussion

[kold weather]

Ah very interesting runs indeed!!!

The fax charts confirm my thinking earlier on that the trough starts to acquire more frontal like properties and looking at the 60-72hrs chart that seems to be the case, as the LP starts to slow its southward motion I'd imagine the whole lot will become much slower moving overnight...

Also thanks Ian, the UKMO about 6hrs more progressive then the GFS, very interesting though to see thanks!

Finally, the 72hrs chart is amazing because for the first time we can see the front that will give more widespread snowfall Thursday-Friday over Denmark, the whole lot will come WSW as the main low (by this time over France) slowly pivots out of the way and decays.

ps, the 12z ECM shunts the snow risk after that system a little bit more to the SE again...

[MR EXTREMES]

so is saturday sunday nextweek the date when milder air takes over after a period of heavy snow?

and as kold suggested on tuesdays cold front is this likely to be a light dusting by the time it gets to the southcoast?

but overall the models do look absolutely fantastic.

[Neilsouth]

I could be wrong here but the high pressure is further south on the ecm than any other model , why?... This is the second run so far from ecm that doesn't follow the ukmo or gfs

[NorthantsSnow]

+60 dax chart shows a trough from Lincs to Mid wales.

So in summary for Tues a cold front moves S bringing possibly some snow. We then see snow showers becoming heavier and more frequent during Tues night into Wed morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif

Also highly recommend you read the forecast on BBC teletext pg 403 for Wed!

Bit off topic sorry mods but I just tried this and it says page not found! How do you get to it on Freeview?

Back to the models and I can only echo what others have said, fantastic output tonight which clearly shows widespread and at times significant snowfall for a good portion of the country. Excellent!

Detail will change on the Fri/Sat event. Personally I'd like to see it edge a bit further NW for obvious reasons. Hopefully we should get a clearer idea on that soon.

[Ian Fergusson]

thanks Ian

that does explain what Pyro was asking about.

Sea temps in the far SW seem as being suggested to be high enough to give a wintry mix for the SW other than on the Moors. A similar thing being shown on the last chart for adjacent to the east coast.

Hi John,

Yes, the SST into Bristol Channel (and elsewhere around SW Peninsula) remains fairly close to the 10C isotherm (+/- 1.5C or so) and so it's got sufficient potency to affect the way of things weatherwise in these parts (albeit also makes the continuing anecdotal but reliable reports of many cod / codling being taken by anglers in such climes all the more bizarre, but I'll save that discussion for my ichthyological kindred spirits on another forum!)

Edited January 3, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[J10]

thanks Ian

that does explain what Pyro was asking about.

Sea temps in the far SW seem as being suggested to be high enough to give a wintry mix for the SW other than on the Moors. A similar thing being shown on the last chart for adjacent to the east coast.

Pyro was discussing the situation for Wales and apart from perhaps the far west coast, with the parameters at that time, I would imagine snow would be more likely.

[KTtom]

Seems a little better out to 144 for both UKMO and ECM, one question though, what happened to the trough on the GFS 06z in the SE friday which was also mentioned as a possability on countryfile lunchtime....its gone

[kold weather]

Gets there in the end though, 144hrs is a utter beast!

probably sub 510 damn in the far SE by that point, -10/11Cs at 850hpa, probably ice days across a good chunk of the country and hefty snow showers really pushing westward quite hard on a ENE that then turns NE inland to shunt those showers to places that would otherwise have a hard time...its stunning!

Of course the great thing is we havre many other topics of discussion to talk about...the more I see the set-up evolve into closer timeframe the more I think it could be a legendary one...

[Neilsouth]

ECM 144 on WZ http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

v GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

v UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

From Two ^ , someone agrees with me... The ECM is out on it's own in terms of intensity and fetch , hopefully the ukmo is the more likely outcome.

[PB22]

ECM 144 on WZ http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

v GFS http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

v UKMO http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

From Two ^ , someone agrees with me... The ECM is out on it's own in terms of intensity and fetch , hopefully the ukmo is the more likely outcome.

ECM, fetch from western Russia. Yes, thats poor. ECM T+144 would deliver heavy snow showers to eastern and southeastern England with that intense cold coming across the warmer North Sea. And remember those isobars are at 5mb intervals, rather than the usual 4mb we are used to, so it would be a little windier than it may seem. Not as windy as GFS though!

Gosh we have been spoilt for charts if people can moan about any model output tonight!

Edited January 3, 2010 by Paul B

[Neilsouth]

ECM, fetch from western Russia. Yes, thats poor. :whistling:ECM T+144 would deliver heavy snow showers to eastern and southeastern England with that intense cold coming across the warmer North Sea.

Gosh we have been spoilt for charts if people can moan about any model output tonight!

I believe me i never said it was poor or moaning about model outputs , i just want the best of the best.... I've grown fussy since the last spell

[Weather-history]

Gosh we have been spoilt for charts if people can moan about any model output tonight!

Yes but you are looking through IMBY glasses, ECM is nothing special for a pretty large part of the country if you want snow.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Mr_Data

[TEITS]

ECM, fetch from western Russia. Yes, thats poor. ECM T+144 would deliver heavy snow showers to eastern and southeastern England with that intense cold coming across the warmer North Sea.

Gosh we have been spoilt for charts if people can moan about any model output tonight!

Spot on Paul as usual.

I think Neil should have a look at the -12C upper temps screaming across the N Sea.

However like i've been saying all week the exact flow, strength is going to continue changing. Personally im only interested in Tues, Wed because I don't have the stamina to look beyond.

[kold weather]

The ECM probably has the coldest profile of the lot of the models, certainly a good deal colder then the GFS by 144hrs thats for sure, probably a smal lbit colder then the 12z UKMO...

Anyway the ECM blows up a powerful Atlantic low by 192hrs however the block is in place and thus the low shears off a new one as it weakens and threatens the SW by 216hrs....waiting to see what the 240hrs chart does...

[Nick L]

Yes but you are looking through IMBY glasses, ECM is nothing special for a pretty large part of the country if you want snow.

Agreed. Far too much IMBYism in here again tonight.

For the vast majority of the country the ECM isn't that great. Would be mostly dry with the occasional snow shower.

[Geordiesnow]

Gets there in the end though, 144hrs is a utter beast!

probably sub 510 damn in the far SE by that point, -10/11Cs at 850hpa, probably ice days across a good chunk of the country and hefty snow showers really pushing westward quite hard on a ENE that then turns NE inland to shunt those showers to places that would otherwise have a hard time...its stunning!

Of course the great thing is we havre many other topics of discussion to talk about...the more I see the set-up evolve into closer timeframe the more I think it could be a legendary one...

The ecm 144 hours is certainly a cold chart but certainly not a snowy one, i feel as you say heavy snow showers for Kent whilst for others on eastern coasts much lighter showers and won't reach that far inland 90% of the population its not really a good chart if you are after snow only.

Must be noted though, the ecm is on its own at 120 hours with GFS/UKMO having the high slightly further North. I still feel some changes could still occur regarding this and as the weather presenter on the countryfile said, the snow risk could be further South or stay where it is.

Anyways nonetheless, a 2-3 day snowy spell looks likely but whilst this snowy event will probably be good, i still feel the Feb 2005 event(for my location at least) would probably be better as days with significant snow falling will be greater.

[PB22]

Yes but you are looking through IMBY glasses, ECM is nothing special for a pretty large part of the country if you want snow.

Not at all, these are cracking charts with snow potential for many areas:

[londonsnow]

great output from the gfs 12z in the reality frame. it's just a waiting game for the majority of the southeast

[Methuselah]

New thread time:

[TEITS]

Agreed. Far too much IMBYism in here again tonight.

For the vast majority of the country the ECM isn't that great. Would be mostly dry with the occasional snow shower.

Lets not start this nonsense again.

Note Paul was replying to Neil who lives in Kent. So based on his location Pauls response was fair.

I will say to other members away from E Anglia/SE that what you ideally need to look for is the HP at +144 being further N. If this happens then N areas are also at risk from the E,ly.

[Eugene]

ECM 12Z has got to be the best pants run ever.

Unbelievable anybody can call that poor, its no wonder even WIB is getting irritated too by the moaners, they just will not ever be happy whatever the runs show.