North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[Liam J]

very cold outsidew now, temp down to -0.8c with black ice on the roads after sun thawed some thin snow cover, biting wind from the NE now this is the colder air moving south now just into the north of northern england now with -10 850's over here later deep cold...

[cheshire snow]

NW radar seems to show the 2nd trough quite nicely looks like cumbria may see something soon

C.S

[Liam J]

NW radar seems to show the 2nd trough quite nicely looks like cumbria may see something soon

C.S

its to far east maybe will affect the eastern cumbria border, unfortunately...

[cheshire snow]

its to far east maybe will affect the eastern cumbria border, unfortunately...

James

Have a look at the 1600 image seems to stretch East to west

What do you think

C.S

[Liam J]

it may just catch the far se of cumbria, if you look at the radar you can see the nw england is protected by the southern uplands for ppn from the north and the pennines to our east....unless of course a streamer sets up with a nw'ly

Edited January 2, 2010 by james12

[AderynCoch]

Strange how the Pennines turn into the Himalayas during easterly snow events like these.

If the Cambrian Mountains did the same thing during prevailing southwesterlies, it would be a desert round here.

[cheshire snow]

If nothing else after the rain tomorrow morning there will be widespread ice

Hopefully a good base for the Snow Tues/Wed

C.S

[Backtrack]

Well another let down today due to the warming influence of the Irish Sea. Got up to 4.2c - Even during the showers the temperature got down to 1.3c - Not even that was enough!

I miss out again whilst the rest of the country get another pasting.

What's this I hear about snow on Wednesday - I know the BBC has it forecast but im not going to go off them, they even say -7c here tomorrow.

Those who are expecting snow on Wednesday, DON'T because as per usuall, it will probably rain due to a warm sector.

[Liam J]

Well another let down today due to the warming influence of the Irish Sea. Got up to 4.2c - Even during the showers the temperature got down to 1.3c - Not even that was enough!

I miss out again whilst the rest of the country get another pasting.

What's this I hear about snow on Wednesday - I know the BBC has it forecast but im not going to go off them, they even say -7c here tomorrow.

Those who are expecting snow on Wednesday, DON'T because as per usuall, it will probably rain due to a warm sector.

should be no such unluckiness, with 850's -8 to -12 most of the period which would mean lying snow on the coast, no such marginality next week all we need is the ppn to be in the right place!!!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

temps dropping off now and another band just to the NE,might clip us in the east in an hour or so.

[Liam J]

temp -0.9c DP -2c

gfs 12z run for tuesday looking very good for snowfall for our area.

Edited January 2, 2010 by james12

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

temp -0.9c DP -2c

gfs 12z run for tuesday looking very good for snowfall for our area.

omg have you seen that gfs run?

we'd have more than a foot of snow if that happens!

[Backtrack]

should be no such unluckiness, with 850's -8 to -12 most of the period which would mean lying snow on the coast, no such marginality next week all we need is the ppn to be in the right place!!!

'Luck' has lost all meaning for the weather around here.

It will rain no matter what.

[AderynCoch]

should be no such unluckiness, with 850's -8 to -12 most of the period which would mean lying snow on the coast, no such marginality next week all we need is the ppn to be in the right place!!!

So a dry week ahead for me then.

[HotCuppa]

should be no such unluckiness, with 850's -8 to -12 most of the period which would mean lying snow on the coast, no such marginality next week all we need is the ppn to be in the right place!!!

I think we need to be careful with these charts at the moment, the same thing has been showing and not delivered now on a number of dead cert days.

What usually seems to be too good to be true usually is.

The usual suspect areas, such as the pennines and higher elevations will see some of this snow over the coming days. Don't underestimate the the warmth coming of the Irish sea, as its been said on numerous occassions now its a real snow killer. (What are the ISST temps over the last week for the irish sea?)

AderynCoch

The only real cold source is from the NE (Norway), and as the winds have swung this way the temps have come down and will continue to do so, until they swing to the nw (warming again by the irish sea) so right now for us in the south of the region including coasts its not a good prognosis. Just have to be careful not to let your emotions runaway by the dodgy GFS (other people).

From what I can see, the higher elevations and those closer to the pennines and the higher areas of cumbria where hit with snow, while the majority of places was nothing more than sleet and wet snow. Overall not an impressive day...still tonight to go and as temps plummet we are looking for moisture to arrive while keeping the ne airflow, thats to me is a lot of ifs and buts..but you never know!

My Current Temp: 1.3C

Dewpoint 0.3C

Wind Dir: NE

Wind Speed: 0mph

Wind Gust: 0mph

Wind Chill 1.3C

Barometer 1014.4 rising slowly

Precip: 5.6mm (Sleety/wet snow mix)

Humidity: 87%

Edited January 2, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Spurry]

temp -0.9c DP -2c

gfs 12z run for tuesday looking very good for snowfall for our area.

iT'LL NO DOUBT P*** DOWN AGAIN HERE!!!!!!!!

[Snow free zone]

So what's the difference between today and 2 weeks ago ? we had 7 inches of snow in 3 days before Christmas out of a W/NW airflow off the Irish Sea. There must have more warm air in the mix today, but for Tuesday and possibly Wed the warm air isn't showing, and surely won't the sea be cooling down too.

[Liam J]

some people need to realise the synoptics on offer from the models, i cant remember seeing them since i got the internet at least anyway!!

the last few week or so we all know it was a marginal set up and there were surprise snowfalls for places the right side of marginality, like having -4 to -6 uppers and DP around freezing and air temps low at the surface, but not exceptionally so.

we are now looking at many days over the next week or so with -8 to -12 850's or a risk of even lower than that briefly at times, a NE to E flow and miles away from marginal in mine any many others eyes, daytime highs at best -2c to +1c at best with widespread sub zero ice days on offer potentailly. night time lows... -15c could be achieved

i know people on here myself included get a bit p****d off when we are forecast snow and it rain/sleets, but the synoptics are better than we could wish for in the so called modern winters.

this spell will probably be the coldest/snowiest in my lifetime so far - and im 27!!

Edited January 2, 2010 by james12

[V for Very Cold]

all gone quiet here and the temp's dropping again - what odds for more snow tonight :?

[HotCuppa]

So what's the difference between today and 2 weeks ago ? we had 7 inches of snow in 3 days before Christmas out of a W/NW airflow off the Irish Sea. There must have more warm air in the mix today, but for Tuesday and possibly Wed the warm air isn't showing, and surely won't the sea be cooling down too.

First off, remember we had a number of days of freezing (due to a NE airflow) those temperatures where conducive to any sort of moisture. We then had an lp tracking to our sw, which with the swing of the airflow to wnw, warmed temps up somewhat and produced that snow. The problem is this time, we haven't had any freezing days..so the air was always warmer..we then had another crack at a s tracking lp which because of already warmer air off the irish produced nothing but rain/sleet/wet snow...basically we where the wrong side of mild.

That lp took an age to move off, so with yet another cold ne airflow, and with no cold entrenched air (thanks lp) by the time the moisture came to us, it was arriving in slightly warmer air..thus rain.

However looking at the the upcoming charts. The isotherm, the heights and colder air will entrench itself, and we will see a couple of freezing days (so long as we maintain a cold source of airflow, currently that is only from the NE). maybe 4 or 5 freezing days, all will need is for moisture to arrive, which it looks like doing from the nw later in the week.

I am more interested in this evening, as that colder air arrives and temps drop and with moisture still around we could get an another hour or two of snow, even to lower elevations and the coasts..could be interesting.

Edited January 2, 2010 by HotCuppa

[dodge]

all gone quiet here and the temp's dropping again - what odds for more snow tonight :?

I'm only expecting the odd flurry from the snowband just fringing into parts of your area now. The main band is probably sliding over to the East of the Pennines, and seems to be rapidly fizzling out as it trecks over the higher ground.

[HotCuppa]

some people need to realise the synoptics on offer from the models, i cant remember seeing them since i got the internet at least anyway!!

the last few week or so we all know it was a marginal set up and there were surprise snowfalls for places the right side of marginality, like having -4 to -6 uppers and DP around freezing and air temps low at the surface, but not exceptionally so.

we are now looking at many days over the next week or so with -8 to -12 850's or a risk of even lower than that briefly at times, a NE to E flow and miles away from marginal in mine any many others eyes, daytime highs at best -2c to +1c at best with widespread sub zero ice days on offer potentailly.

i know people on here myself included get a bit p****d off when we are forecast snow and it rain/sleets, but the synoptics are better than we could wish for in the so called modern winters.

and the models have also been incredibly wrong too, the secret is to try and find a medium between what they are showing and what they are not..try to find the middle ground and you can usually get a better idea of whats going to happen then just using the current output from the models which haven't dealt too well with the cold this winter. ECM has been pretty reliable, though it cocked up the start of the cold spell and it did it again the other day..but generally its very reliable.

Edited January 2, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Storm Animal]

Well its been a good snowy day up here, just been a 2 hour walk and taken a few snaps. Hope everybody had fun playing around in it & not too many broken bones, I slipped on my backside 6 times in dramatic fashion!

[Spurry]

Well its been a good snowy day up here, just been a 2 hour walk and taken a few snaps. Hope everybody had fun playing around in it & not too many broken bones, I slipped on my backside 6 times in dramatic fashion!

I enjoyed splashing around in the puddles here so much i've now developed Trench Foot

[V for Very Cold]

Well its been a good snowy day up here, just been a 2 hour walk and taken a few snaps. Hope everybody had fun playing around in it & not too many broken bones, I slipped on my backside 6 times in dramatic fashion!

thanks for the pics Storm - looks great up on the tops - haven;t been able to see them from down here most of the day, i just cleared for the last hour and could see the moors looking stunning - bet you are having a great time up there