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Ross B

Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 12

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Still looking good for wintry weather this week :)

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I mentioned on the previous part to this thread, that the band comign down from the North has been going over us for the last hour or so, and is falling as rain, also according to www.raintoday.co.uk the band seems to be more readily turning to rain at higher levels as it moves down.

Is there supposed to be colder air following on behind ?

Must admit though, the rain on top of the 3 or 4 inches of pack ice we have, made for a very interesting walk there !

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Obviously at height, snow showers from the north (not NE) now falling over the Highlands/Cairngorms. I wonder if the mountains will take the majority of the ppn (more than likely) or maybe there so much moving south we all get a covering overnight? :cold:

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Ok, Tuesday is now shaping up to be potentially very snowy-

ecm500.096.png

The snow potential from this chart is pretty significant, particularly across eastern and northeastern parts, with winds gradually veering to more of a straight easterly over Tuesday night.

ecm500.120.png

Convection showers would be heavy, with uppers below -10, and very persistant, combined with the initial frontal precipitation on Tuesday. Could be quite an event - certainly one to watch.

LS

Obviously at height, snow showers from the north (not NE) now falling over the Highlands/Cairngorms. I wonder if the mountains will take the majority of the ppn (more than likely) or maybe there so much moving south we all get a covering overnight? cc_confused.gif

I don't think this band of snow was ever really progged to reach us. I believe that the main precipitation here will be from the low pressure centre moving south west, dragging precipitation across central and eastern Scotland from the northeast in the early morning. It would be a nice bonus to get some tonight though!

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Hmm, GFS thinks it will get to the central belt but quite pretty light. A more intense area moves into the SW of Scotland (rain?) and eastern areas later in the morning.

post-26-12623862575813_thumb.png

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As you say LS - it's the second band that's progged to work its way over the country. Here's the netweather mesoscale model (NMM) for 9am:

post-1217-12623862538813_thumb.png

post-1217-12623862918513_thumb.png

post-1217-12623863532313_thumb.png

Here's hoping this is a repeat of a week last Wednesday am which the NMM forecast so well :drinks:

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As you say LS - it's the second band that's progged to work its way over the country. Here's the netweather mesoscale model (NMM) for 9am:

post-1217-12623862538813_thumb.png

post-1217-12623862918513_thumb.png

post-1217-12623863532313_thumb.png

Here's hoping this is a repeat of a week last Wednesday am which the NMM forecast so well biggrin.gif

Indeed. Not only that, the potential after the main band passes is greater than last week, with a strong easterly flow for at least 12 hours, so even if the main band doesn't give that much, the showers may well compensate!

LS

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Hmm, GFS thinks it will get to the central belt but quite pretty light. A more intense area moves into the SW of Scotland (rain?) and eastern areas later in the morning.

post-26-12623862575813_thumb.png

I'd imagine it would be rain though on higher ground I'd imagine given the strength of the ground it probably would still be of snow despite somewhat marginal profiles.

Next week does look very good for you guys in the east, north sea still cooling as well which should slowly make things less marginal as the colder air continues to dig in.

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I'd imagine it would be rain though on higher ground I'd imagine given the strength of the ground it probably would still be of snow despite somewhat marginal profiles.

Next week does look very good for you guys in the east, north sea still cooling as well which should slowly make things less marginal as the colder air continues to dig in.

Most likely however 850 temps are -5c/-6c with 522Dam air. Dewpoints are just above freezing however so I'd imagine it will be rain/sleet with heavier bursts being snow. However, not to forget we have 14days worth of snowcover and its currently -6c with the band meant to move over us in around 5 hours. Maybe we will be lucky?

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Obviously at height, snow showers from the north (not NE) now falling over the Highlands/Cairngorms. I wonder if the mountains will take the majority of the ppn (more than likely) or maybe there so much moving south we all get a covering overnight? :drinks:

Don't hold your breath if it's more snow at low level you want tonight. It's cooling now but only after the ppn's gone. Sleet it was and sleet it stayed. Damned icy out (as you well know!!)

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As you say LS - it's the second band that's progged to work its way over the country. Here's the netweather mesoscale model (NMM) for 9am:

post-1217-12623862538813_thumb.png

post-1217-12623862918513_thumb.png

post-1217-12623863532313_thumb.png

Here's hoping this is a repeat of a week last Wednesday am which the NMM forecast so well :drinks:

For reference/comparison for those of us in the central belt - here's the 6 inch whopper from 10 days ago:

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Noticed the last bbc forcast had the band of snow/sleet vanish as it got to the central belt and then reappear again through the borders... does that mean they expect the mountains to draw most of the precipitation out of the band and then have it pick up again when it moves further south?

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For reference/comparison for those of us in the central belt - here's the 6 inch whopper from 10 days ago:

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__1667635

This is exactly why I think the precipitation will be predominantly snow - uppers in that event were between -5 and -3, no lower, yet all of the precipitation inland and even close to the coast stayed as snow. The uppers here are better, the cold air is still, perhaps even more, entrenched, and the thicknesses look better if anything. I'm sure areas as far south as Aberdeen had this precipitation as sleet and rain, but as the front moved south the warm sector became less and less notable. Regardless of whether the snow depths are the same, I still believe that for most people in the central belt, the precipitation will fall as snow.

LS

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Most likely however 850 temps are -5c/-6c with 522Dam air. Dewpoints are just above freezing however so I'd imagine it will be rain/sleet with heavier bursts being snow. However, not to forget we have 14days worth of snowcover and its currently -6c with the band meant to move over us in around 5 hours. Maybe we will be lucky?

so that band that is headed for here is rain !!! ugh.. -4c but going by reports its going to rise did it start off -4c then rise or was it just 2c before the band very worried! :drunk:

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Noticed the last bbc forcast had the band of snow/sleet vanish as it got to the central belt and then reappear again through the borders... does that mean they expect the mountains to draw most of the precipitation out of the band and then have it pick up again when it moves further south?

Perhaps, but what I noticed (what with being an east coastie) was the band pivoting across the eastern central belt, though moving more quickly on the less intense western edge. We shall see tomorrow.

LS

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From a central-belt/central-east perspective I'd have a concern that theres "too much North" in the Tuesday flow to begin with. Already seen over the last 24 hours or so how Dundee southwards can find themselves effectively sheltered whilst it all streams to the nearest landfall (Berwickshire/NE England).

If that northerly kink veers to the general direction of ENE, then that late Tuesday chart is bang on the money for a classic and non-marginal easterly event. It was a January 1972 easterly that first gave me the bug for weather-watching, sufficiently so to keep records for the next 6 years or so (till I discovered drink and women)... and most of my memorable Embra snowfalls have come from the east ... so heres to another one. :drunk:

Bet I've jinxed it now !:)

Ok, Tuesday is now shaping up to be potentially very snowy-

The snow potential from this chart is pretty significant, particularly across eastern and northeastern parts, with winds gradually veering to more of a straight easterly over Tuesday night.

ecm500.120.png

Convection showers would be heavy, with uppers below -10, and very persistant, combined with the initial frontal precipitation on Tuesday. Could be quite an event - certainly one to watch.

LS

I don't think this band of snow was ever really progged to reach us. I believe that the main precipitation here will be from the low pressure centre moving south west, dragging precipitation across central and eastern Scotland from the northeast in the early morning. It would be a nice bonus to get some tonight though!

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That precip forecast is spookily similar to the one that the NMM called so well last week :diablo:

If this comes off then I'm going to start doing a Piers Corbyn and placing snow-bets with Leith bookies for the next event !

As you say LS - it's the second band that's progged to work its way over the country. Here's the netweather mesoscale model (NMM) for 9am:

post-1217-12623862538813_thumb.png

post-1217-12623862918513_thumb.png

post-1217-12623863532313_thumb.png

Here's hoping this is a repeat of a week last Wednesday am which the NMM forecast so well :)

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Well with the BBC on board this time, it's probably completely jinxed now, or it'll be sleet :diablo:

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The model discussion thread has lightened up now that the prospect of whiteouts moves further south - happy for them :whistling:.

With my limited weather interpretation knowledge its easy to see that this Winter is a belter, reminds me of early 80's whiteouts as a kid in Aberdeenshire - I have one very vague memory of a storm which blacked out the sky, looked tornadic must have been a monster low before dropping mountains of snow.. 80 - 82 I think.. We have had nothing like that snowfall yet, but its the temperatures that are the exciting part.

How many days now is it we have had solid white stuff either falling or still on the ground with temperatures around freezing ?

I think last Monday was the only time I have witnessed any mild melting of icy branches on trees.

The models for 72 hrs out make you reach for another layer of clothing just looking at them - its just so many features at once. Arctic air - Easterlies - whole atlantic blocking from Greenland High - that sat pic is ridiculous ! Polar Lows. What a time to be on here - its great fun..

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Well with the BBC on board this time, it's probably completely jinxed now, or it'll be sleet wink.gif

Still no warning though - I believe that came around 1am for Dundee and East Lothian last week and about 4am here!

LS

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