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East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

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This is thread number 21 for the cold spell, make sure you stay on topic...and enjoy the ride...again!

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BBC predict light snow for Wednesday for me and I suspect for most if not all of the region

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BBC predict light snow for Wednesday for me and I suspect for most if not all of the region

They're only showing sunny spells for me.:) I prefer net weather 7 day forecast that shows very light snow showers from midday onward.:)

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I was up in Coventry last night celebrating my birthday and seeing the new year in. Drove back this afternoon down the M6/A14. A very light dusting around Huntingdon/Cambridge, then maybe a cm when I got to Bury St Edmunds, then when I got onto my local roads it was lethal with loads of ice, 2cms of snow and freezing fog.

It's now -4.1C, but the fog has cleared. I'm not looking forward to mucking out 8 stables at 7am tomorrow! :)

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Current data for Linslade ,Leighton buzzard

01 January 2010 20:30:16

Temperature (┬░C):

Current -2.4

Trend (per hour) -0.3

Average today -0.4

Wind chill -2.4

Heat Index -2.4

Dew Point -3.8

Rel Humidity 90%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 4.5 W

Average Speed 0.0 W

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.0

Total yesterday 0.6

Total this month 0.0

Total this year 0.0

Pressure (mb):

Current 1008.8

Trend (per hour) +0.3

and i still think theres chance of snow in the home counties ,well possibly ,maybe

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It's now -4.1C, but the fog has cleared. I'm not looking forward to mucking out 8 stables at 7am tomorrow! :)

Aren't stables fairly warm though? Better than it will be outside anyway.

If January is showing up this cold does anyone think February could be even colder? To me it always seems to be the coldest month down here and usually our best chance of snow down here.

Does anyone know how I can work out the wind chill factor when I have the temp and windspeed?

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Just thought i'd quote a post by TEITS from the general model thread based on the latest ECM charts.

Here is the general trend for next week based on the ECM.

Monday

During the day an band of snow moves S due to the occluded front as posted earlier.

Tues

Heavy snow showers moving into Scotland/NE England via NE,lys with these spreading further S during the day. During Tuesday night we would see extensive heavy snowfalls especially across E areas.

Wed.

Heavy prolonged snow showers giving prolonged snowfalls across many E areas with locations further W seeing occasional snow showers.

Thurs.

Heavy snowfalls across E Anglia/SE/Humber with these spreading further W. Becoming drier to the N though.

Friday.

Heavy snowfalls continuing in the SE but becoming drier elsewhere.

Saturday.

Heavy snowfalls start to spread further N once again

Sunday.

Kent, E Anglia cut off from the rest of the UK. Steve Murr and Tamara have passed out with excitement and miss the further snowfalls.

Of course this is just one way things coulod go but the wise and learned are suggesting things are loking more and more likely to go this way.

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Aren't stables fairly warm though? Better than it will be outside anyway.

If only! These are large open front stables for large working horses (Suffolk Punches). I would rather be infront of the fire anytime! Haha!

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Those showers approaching from the NE are a bit further inland than progged by the NAE this evening. Theyre weakening all the time but theres plenty of them. If we can see even a little intensification as they head through lincolnshire then I could see a few flurries making it down to London

Of course tomorrow evening is the one to watch, but just say for a moment that these showers do make it as far south as London tonight (and given the lack of warnings regarding icy patches here i'd suggest the Met Office do not expect such an occurrence) then it would start to make the potential for upgrades to the event tomorrow evening far higher, given a bit of underplaying of precip intensity by the models...

SK

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Just thought i'd quote a post by TEITS from the general model thread based on the latest ECM charts.

Of course this is just one way things coulod go but the wise and learned are suggesting things are loking more and more likely to go this way.

now you see why people are geting all worked up in the main model as next week could be 1963 and 1976 coming fingers crossed!!!

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If only! These are large open front stables for large working horses (Suffolk Punches). I would rather be infront of the fire anytime! Haha!

AH!!!! I thought you were maybe talking about pampered racehorses :lol: Just a little bit of a difference!! And I intend to stay in bed until 10:00am!! Ah how I love retirement. All evening and late into the night snow watching then a late breakfast in the warm.:p Sorry to rub it in!:p

Back to topic now I am thinking perhaps things are heading toward a very cold winter at last. I can't wait for the local Rife to freeze over. That hasn't happened for over 15 year at least.

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I am still waiting for the next two runs to fully nail the Saturday/Sunday event and hopefully that will clarify the upcoming days. But looking stunning right now...If only London was 20miles SE of where it is!

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now you see why people are geting all worked up in the main model as next week could be 1963 and 1976 coming fingers crossed!!!

I say a big hear hear to that.

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Already many places are well below 0C here in this region, quite a few reports from the stations of temps down -2/3C, with the cold Stansted down to -4C, depending on cloud cover of course we should see another 1-2C shaved off as the night continues.

Tomorrow eveing is a perfect example of how snow events can crop up at short notice and indeed the longer this set-up occurs the more we will see this...

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I have been updating on the forum with intense interest during the past 3 days, if you guys are right it will be a very interesting week ahead. The coldest and deepest Snow winter in my lifetime was back in 1978 when I lived in the North East, just thinking if 5 cm of Snow brings chaos down here in the SE I can't begin to imagine what will happen with even heavier snowfall and a long cold spell. I remember back in 78 when the Newcastle area was cut off from the rest of the country for 12 hours it may happen again up in the NE soon according to the amount of snow there. I just hope that if it happens here in the SE people are warned by the Met. Office in plenty of time, or will it be nowcasting again on here :D.

I don't take much notice of the TV forecast now I log into this forum if I want to know the weather, thanks to you more experienced guys you have been right so far along with Rob from the B.B.C. of course.:lol:

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Haven't looked at the ECM yet, but I gather it's rather good smile.gif Any ideas if it came off how it would compare to Feb this year? that was by far the most snowfall I have ever seen in my relatively short lifetime, and I would be so happy to see it again next week, especially as I go back to school and with the bitter cold I'm guessing it's not going to shift for a while when it settles, so I could be out of school for a while!

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I have been updating on the forum with intense interest during the past 3 days, if you guys are right it will be a very interesting week ahead. The coldest and deepest Snow winter in my lifetime was back in 1978 when I lived in the North East, just thinking if 5 cm of Snow brings chaos down here in the SE I can't begin to imagine what will happen with even heavier snowfall and a long cold spell. I remember back in 78 when the Newcastle area was cut off from the rest of the country for 12 hours it may happen again up in the NE soon according to the amount of snow there. I just hope that if it happens here in the SE people are warned by the Met. Office in plenty of time, or will it be nowcasting again on here biggrin.gif.

I don't take much notice of the TV forecast now I log into this forum if I want to know the weather, thanks to you more experienced guys you have been right so far along with Rob from the B.B.C. of course.clap.gif

To be honest, I highly doubt it'll be that bad down here. I'd imagine Essex/Kent way would get decent falls but even then not major amounts. Maybe something like 20cm overall. I doubt we and London would total 10cm. Maybe we will get more but I can't see anything too drastic.

However, yes, imagine a foot of snow fell knowing what just a few cm's can do! unsure.gif

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Haven't looked at the ECM yet, but I gather it's rather good smile.gif Any ideas if it came off how it would compare to Feb this year? that was by far the most snowfall I have ever seen in my relatively short lifetime, and I would be so happy to see it again next week, especially as I go back to school and with the bitter cold I'm guessing it's not going to shift for a while when it settles, so I could be out of school for a while!

Hello Rob - going from what the others are sayiing you ought to see more snow than last February. Its quite interesting that things have changed so much. I have fond memories (albeit in the Pennines) of school in the 1980's being closed fairly often in Jan/Feb. In those days of no internet, we all listened into local radio once out of bed to hear if school was on or not that day. Of course, on the days when 30cm or more had come down overnight, it was a no brainer. At least a couple of times the question was how were we going to manage to get home from school. Often finished at lunchtime.

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Haven't looked at the ECM yet, but I gather it's rather good smile.gif Any ideas if it came off how it would compare to Feb this year? that was by far the most snowfall I have ever seen in my relatively short lifetime, and I would be so happy to see it again next week, especially as I go back to school and with the bitter cold I'm guessing it's not going to shift for a while when it settles, so I could be out of school for a while!

Yeah that was probably the best for me. I remember the morning well - absolute chaos! Although, I have memories of my time back in primary school and one very snowy day. Must have been about 12 years ago maybe more. I can't remember the depths but it was a fair good amount. School carried on though!

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Yeah that was probably the best for me. I remember the morning well - absolute chaos! Although, I have memories of my time back in primary school and one very snowy day. Must have been about 12 years ago maybe more. I can't remember the depths but it was a fair good amount. School carried on though!

Yeah I have that memory as well, big snowfall and the first I can remember in this area, I'd guess its either from 95/96 or 96/97 but I'm not quite sure at the moment...

Anyway snowfall amounts are something I'm not too sure about because its the of set-up that favours constant top up set-ups rather then big snow events, however as others have said its well worth watching small disturbances get upgraded as we come closer in, just like we are seeing with the trough coming down tomorrow night, though personally I think it'll be somewhat patchy down here but you never can tell with these features...

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GFS 18z starting to come out now. Lets see what it brings

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just looked outside and there is cloud cover frmo north and coming over ,so yes i suppose the cloud will travel down from north ,im still thinking snow tonight over this way

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Norwich had a nice dusting of snow overnight and a few top-ups during the day - nice to see. Temps down to about -2c tonight.

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GFS for Sunday showing cold cold cold, max temps widely 1C maybe 2C on the coast

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They're only showing sunny spells for me.mad.gif I prefer net weather 7 day forecast that shows very light snow showers from midday onward.clap.gif

Well BBC have me down for light snow Wednesday (day & night) just across the border in Hampshire smile.gif So if it looks likely making it here you will surely get some being further east than me... (fingers crossed).

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