West Pacific And North Indian Ocean Invest Thread 2010

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

93W became TS Malou.

We have invest 90W now around 350 miles east of Guam. The disturbance has a little bit of work to do still before becoming a tropical depression, but JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system. Convection has slowly been increasing and the broad LLC is gradually tightening. Further development should occur as shear is low, waters beneath the disturbance are warm and outflow is impressive. This should tighten the LLC a little more for this system to become a tropical depression.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

90W became Typhoon Malakas.

Invest 95W has formed in the South China Sea, near 100 miles east-northeast of Hue City, Vietnam. Convection is exploding and is showing rotation around a developing area of low pressure. Shear is moderate, and sea temps warm. However, 95W may be hindered by proximity to land. If the system stays over water, then some slow development is possible. The most likely scenario IMO is that the system will move onshore before it has acquired enough organisation to become a tropical depression.

North Indian Ocean:

Invest 95B has formed in the northern Bay Of Bengal. Convection is increasing and showing signs of rotation about a developing LLC. Shear is moderate, and may slow development. Waters are warm beneath the system however, and I think 95B has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next day or two.

Invest 96A has formed in the eastern Arabian Sea, just off the west coast of India. Convection is flaring around the small disturbance, which has been hovering off the coast over the last day. Convectional coverage is limited, probably by dry air. 96A could soon move inland, and therefore chances are poor for further development.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

Invest 99W has formed in the southwestern South China Sea, 400 miles southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The system is near the equator, just 4 degrees north of it in fact. Despite this, the system is showing signs of rotation and a possible LLC. However, the convection is disorganised at present and therefore development may be slow. JTWC are giving a fair chance of TD formation in the next 24hrs, but another scenario just as likely is that 99W will move westwards, cross the Malay Peninsula into the Bay Of Bengal, and develop into a tropical cyclone there. Either way, this is where 99W is likely to end up.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests, but as mentioned above, there is a possibility invest 99W from the West Pacific could move into this basin early-mid next week and develop into a TC.

Edited October 30, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

99W has moved into the North Indian Ocean.

North Indian Ocean:

Invest 99W has moved from the South China Sea, over the Malay Peninsula and into the Bay Of Bengal. Land interaction has not significantly hindered what was already a weak circulation. Convection is very deep but disorganised. Very heavy rains are being unleashed on the Malay Peninsuala, including Singapore. As 99W continues westwards, it will encounter warm water and low shear. Therefore, further development is expected and JTWC assess the chances of TC formation in the next 24hrs as fair.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

Invest 90W has formed in the South China Sea, now about 200 miles east-northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The system is approaching land, and time is running out for the system to become a tropical depression. Besides, the environment is not all that favourable, with moderate shear and cold, dry air infiltrating the LLC. Therefore, the chance of TC formation is poor.

North Indian Ocean:

99W has become much better organised over the last couple days. Despite moderate shear, the LLC has strengthened and convection has slowly consolidated about this centre. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system as it tracks further into the Bay Of Bengal. Warm waters and good outflow should allow the system to become a tropical cyclone despite the shear. If the shear eases, some rapid development is possible.

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92A

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93A

[Somerset Squall]

Unfortunately, (fortunately for some) that image is 3 days old. At the time, JTWC assessed the chances of TC development as FAIR, but now only suggest poor as the LLC has become ill defined and the convection associated with the system has decreased significantly.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

Invest 95W has formed in the South China Sea, off the east coast of Vietnam. Convection is increasing over a developing LLC. Low shear and warm sea temps should promote further development, and JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system.

Invest 96W has formed just off the east coast of Luzon. Convection has increased in association with the disturbance which is showing good spin at the mid levels. Land interaction with Luzon may hinder development, but if current trends continue then 96W has a real shot at becoming a tropical depression over the next day or two.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

Edited December 11, 2010 by Cridders88