West Pacific And North Indian Ocean Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

94W

[Cookie]

very slow start to the west pacific

[Somerset Squall]

Agreed, not much going on in this basin as yet, especially compared to the last two years which have seen fairly active May/Junes. This lack of activity is not too unusual though looking back at 2007 and previous- activity commonly picks up in July for the West Pacific.

[Cookie]

in the past decade:

2009: 2 named storms, both typhoons

2008: 5 named storms, 3 typhoons

2007: 2 named storms, both typhoons

2006: 1 named storm, Typhoon Chanchu

2005: 4 named storms, 2 typhoons

2004: 3 named storms, 2 typhoons

2003: 5 named storms, 2 typhoons

2002: 3 named storms, 2 typhoons

2001: 1 named storm, Severe Tropical Storm Cimaron

2000: 2 named storms, 1 typhoon

[Somerset Squall]

That'll teach me for only looking at 2007 and 2006 to base that statement on . So yes, a slow start in comparison to normal with just 1 named storm so far. Quietest since 2001 going by your list.

The forecast according to Wiki is for a slightly below average season.

Edited June 3, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

That'll teach me for only looking at 2007 and 2006 to base that statement on . So yes, a slow start in comparison to normal with just 1 named storm so far. Quietest since 2001 going by your list.

The forecast according to Wiki is for a slightly below average season.

this hurricane obsession of mine is getting worse btw, counselling will soon be needed.

after last year it was always going to be quieter. but again like any basin anywhere in the world it only takes one system to be a killer.

[Somerset Squall]

I needed councelling ages ago . A very true statement there Cookie, yes last year was an active one- with the El Nino now gone I can't see this one being as active either.

[Cookie]

Global SST's

some coolers temps in the West Pacific

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

Invest 90W has formed at low lattiude to the southeast of the Philippines. 90W consists of pulsing convection which is yet to show persistance. The reason for this is probably due to the lack of LLC. In fact, there is very little or no sign of rotation at present. However, shear is low and waters are very warm indeed, around 30C. This suggests the potential for some slow development, but if 90W does become a tropical depression, it is likely to take some time.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

93W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

As Cookie has indicated above, invest 93W has formed 200 miles north-northwest of Yap. The disturbance is beginning to look better organised with a developing LLC being aided by good poleward outflow. Shear is low, and waters are warm. Convection is currently exploding over the LLC, and if this persists, then this system will become a tropical depression sooner rather than later. JTWC give a fair chance of this system becoming a TC in the next 24hrs.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

93W

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued

WTPN21 PGTW 110600

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-

AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N

135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH

OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A

110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND

MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES

THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO

HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER

TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

120600Z.//

[Cookie]

93W

looking very good now this system

[Cookie]

93W got upgraded

94W has popped up but doesn't look great

95W

[Cookie]

98W

A tropical depression already according to JMA

[Somerset Squall]

And JTWC, have made a new thread.

West Pacific:

93W became Typhoon Conson.

Invest 97W has formed, 90 miles east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan. The LLC is currently completely devoid of deep convection and is not warm cored. However, the LLC is defined and is moving into an area of low shear, improved upper level divergence (low level convergence has to be matched by good upper level divergence to promote rising of air which aids falling pressures and growing convection) but marginal sea temperatures. JTWC give this system a fair chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24hrs.

Invest 98W has formed just west of Luzon has has become Tropical Depression 04W.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

Edited July 18, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

97W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

97W is becoming better organised and a tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the JTWC. Unlike yesterday, the well defined LLC now has a large area of convection attached to it. This should further tighten the LLC, and if the convection persists then JTWC could upgrade this to a tropical depression later today. Shear is low, but waters are not overly warm at 26-27C. Tomorrow, on the predicted northward heading, 97W will be moving over waters between 24-26C which would hinder development. If this system is to become a tropical cyclone, it needs to do it within the next 24hrs ideally.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

97W dissipated.

Invest 91W has formed in the South China Sea, approx 300 miles east of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. A monsoon trough extends between Vietnam and the Philippines, and a weak LLC with disorganised convection is embedded within the trough. There is 25kts of shear over the region. Two things need to happen before 91W can become a tropical depression. Firstly, that shear needs to ease. Currently, the convection is more attached to the trough rather than the LLC because of the shear. Secondly, the LLC needs to detach itself from the monsoon trough so it can develop it's own convection. JTWC give a fair chance of both of these things occuring in the next 24hrs, my personal hunch is if a tropical depression is going to form, it may take a little longer than 24hrs. We shall see.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

Edited July 25, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

91W dissipated.

Invest 96W has formed several hundred miles east of the Philippines. The system is very large, and consists of a mass of convection that is beginning to persist over a developing circulation. From this circulation, and intense band of convection is stretching south and curling back westwards across the southernmost Philippine islands. 96W is currently struggling against moderate to high shear, but is moving slowly westwards towards a region of low shear. However, 97W (next paragraph) is located close to the west and the two could compete for resources unless 97W lifts out. All things considered, I give 96W a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next day or two.

Invest 97W has formed east of Taiwan. A well defined circulation could be tracked moving in from the east over the last day on satellite runs. However, this circulation only has isolated cells of convection in the skeletal outer bands, and nothing near the centre itself. In addition, the system is moving westwards towards Taiwan and China where land interaction will probably hinder significant development.

North Indian Ocean:

Invest 90B has formed in the northern Bay Of Bengal. The system consists of disorganised convection rotating around a very broad and ill defined circulation. Development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely as there is shear upto 50kts battering the invest. However, the system rather looks like a monsoon low which could provide flooding rains to Bangledesh, Myanmar and Eastern India over the next day or two.

Edited August 4, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

96W has persisted and changed little in organisation for the last 3 days- until now. The system has moved northwestwards towards Taiwan and is now showing signs of stronger rotation around a developing LLC. Deep convective banding is flanking the system in a spiralling nature. Conditions are favourable for further development with low shear, warm sea temps and dual outflow channels building. A tropical depression could form later tonight or tomorrow if current trends continue.

97W dissipated.

North Indian Ocean:

90B dissipated.

[Cookie]

99W

[CardiffStorm]

Latest image of Dianmu:

Sorry, just noticed the seperate Dianmu thread.

Edited August 9, 2010 by jamo_s

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

96W became Tropical Storm Dianmu.

Invest 93W has formed just off the coast of Vietnam. JTWC have issued a TCFA on the system in the early hours of this morning, however, 93W appears to have lost organisation since then. Shear is low, but this things appears to be too close to land and this is hindering the disturbance. 93W must pull away from Vietnam if it stands a chance of developing further.

Invest 94W formed east of Luzon and has now made landfall. The LLC was well defined yesterday and the system appeared close to becoming a tropical depression, however, land interaction has loosened the LLC and reduced convection. 94W is emerging over the warm waters of the south China Sea now, and with low shear and good upper level outflow, this system could develop into a tropical depression as soon as tomorrow as it moves generally westwards.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

Edited August 20, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

93W dissipated.

94W became TS Mindulle.

Lionrock, Namtheun and Kompasu formed with a handful of other invests.

And now we are back to 93W for an invest that has formed 200 miles northwest of Guam. Shear is low, waters warm and upper level outflow good. Convection is consolidating over a deepening LLC which has prompted JTWC to issue a tropical cyclone formation alert. Curved inflow channels and banding are already noted on satellite imagery and if current trends continue the system could become a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.