General Model Output Discussion

[Avain]

The 162hr GFS 12z shows the 510 dam over Kent! Albeit a small pool and very F1 but striking nonetheless.

Edited January 1, 2010 by Avain

[TEITS]

Exciting evening following the radar tomorrow night I suspect. The trough moving SE should bring snowfall to many areas with the heaviest precip around the Midlands/E E Anglia. Uncertain how much precip will be left on the trough as it reaches the SE.

Edited January 1, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Duane S.]

The GEFS ensembles for London upto 180hrs are nothing short of amazing,still waiting for the full set to appear but really over 180 hrs its the best i've ever seen.

Without a doubt Nick. Normally when I select my bookmarked ensembles page 'Aberdeen' shows up first, I then select Dorset from the dropdown box and everything moves up at least 5 degrees! Not so now!!

The ensembles are simply incredible.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

[Wayneywoo]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gifI seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -S

Steve,

Care to decipher it for us less learned please

[danm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

Looks good! Surely that trough moving down from the north will give most of us some snow. Hopefully it wont fizzle out as it pushes south. There also looks like a small trough pushing in from the NE to SE areas after the main trough pushes through.

[johnholmes]

Not often old jh gets almost excited by charts!

A suggestion-Save all the charts from the past couple of days if you can; longer if you are able;-GFS/Met/ECMWF/Extra etc etc as unless we are about to have a 'sea change' in our climate we are likely to have to wait very much longer than some of us have winters before the grim reaper turns up to see any winters like this one has already been and looks like being for another 7-10 days perhaps another 2 weeks.

My site has a mean of 1.8C since 11 December-I suspect I will have to look a long way back, unless 95 or 92 show better, for as long a spell of such numbers.

Coupled with 7 days snow falling and 9 with more than half (admittedly never more than 2cm) total cover.

IF the charts are reasonably accurate out to 10 days ahead (and I see no reason for them not being) then it could be over 30 days of 'cold to very cold' by Met O definition.

For those still carping its not like it used to be etc-display please, for your area, how long it is since, if your data is similar to mine, the last winter with such wintry details?

enjoy folks it can't get much better than this from a cold lovers perspective-snow will arrive, I keep telling you this but we still have toys out of prams at times.

[Archie_Lewis]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

whooaaa... Steve that looks great for south east!

My local radio BBC 3 counties just said, home counties could wake up to a White ground Sunday morning... " and it won't be frost"

[phil nw.]

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

Better than earlier,maybe even some snow here in the heart of the Mids.

I think we will get these minor troughs popping up more than once in the next few days Steve.

By the way GFS ens. great tonight,

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100101/12/t850Warwickshire.png

Remarkable agreement for at least 10days for the uppers,havent seen that often.

[ChartViewer]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

Hi Steve,

I can understand models with 500 and 850's as they are quite easy to interprate on a basic level

but unfortunately fax charts are quite mystifying to me....I can see 528 DAM on there but what

exactly is that FAX chart showing?

Regards

[SMU]

Better than earlier,maybe even some snow here in the heart of the Mids.

I think we will get these minor troughs popping up more than once in the next few days Steve.

By the way GFS ens. great tonight,

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100101/12/t850Warwickshire.png

Remarkable agreement for at least 10days for the uppers,havent seen that often.

indeed & just for the poster that asked it looks as though the trough comes through between midnight & 4am- then as it clears there a HIGH chance of a streamer developing as well as plnty of convective showers, the early runs had a weak NNE flow which has updated from the 12's to a wak easterly flow ( remember -12c uppers on the back edge with around 515-520 thickness)-

Sunday am most of the SE should see a covering which should be the start of the perma cover till May .....

S

[PB22]

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

Sweet! And that trough following in from the North Sea could bring some fun and games for eastern and southeastern England by Sunday morning too!

I can only reiterate what John H says - savour these charts and the next 10 days (or however long it lasts) - we have waited a long, long time for a January like this.

[loafer]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

The 48 hr one is also interesting...isn't that a streamer?

[johnholmes]

Sunday am most of the SE should see a covering which should be the start of the perma cover till May .....

S

steady on Steve the mods are about to have their hands even fuller than they already are without that kind of comment;10-20 days shall we say for starters?

[Guest FireStorm]

Sunday am most of the SE should see a covering which should be the start of the perma cover till May

Perma cover? As in permanant snow cover? Or is this lingo for something totally different

That's one massive snow ramp if I did understand correctly and next to impossible surely.

The FAX does look amazing for snow lovers and a pretty widespread event for the majority if I'm not mistaken?

Edited January 1, 2010 by FireStorm

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just looked at the GEFS ensembles for my local area and the mean is consistently between -8C 850 and -12C 850 from the 3/4 Jan for about a week!! It takes until mid month or thereabouts till they go back around -5C 850 and then towards zero. Astonishing!

Edited January 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Bristawl Si]

Cold and sunny for us, here, in Bristol. Can't see much snow for us out of this at the mo. An Eastern event is looming, so excuse the lack of enthusiasm from this side of the country. Models predict an epic for the East. How how we'd love a LP approaching from the south west for these parts.

[john w]

Interesting T36 chart...Not sure if it will affect Berks Bucks and Oxon.

We did very well out of the last streamer though, notwithstanding the disruption. I do think tomorrows shows more potential and it really does depend how far south it gets. The North downs could get a few inches though.

As some say, it will be v interesting weather watching and radar monitoring tomorrow.

As a random and probably bad call. BUT would it be possible to set up a map, with some black lines and labelled areas. I say this because peoples interpretation of regions can be very different. It could be a guide for netweather and then at least people would know what regions refer to where. I dont proclaim to be stupid with regards to this. But where I live has been referred to as the South East, south and central south..and thats purely by dfferent agencies boundaries.....Just an idea...and i stick with central south.

[If Wishes made Weather]

The trough/low for Saturday night can be seen very clearly on the satellite loop

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

Interestingly, the GFS looks to keep the PPN largely offshore:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

As seen from TETIS’ earlier mail, the MetOffice have it doing a little more onshore:

http://www.meteociel...6-594.GIF?01-18

Predicted PPN amounts on these models are in the 1 to 5 cm areas at the outside (roughly 1 to 5 cm of snow).

[TEITS]

Just want to clarify the +36/+48 fax chart.

I will start by saying this isn't a SE event!

At +36 you see the trough moving SE but like I said earlier the UKMO model suggests the heaviest precip will actually be in the Midlands.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

As the trough moves SE we see another trough moving into E Anglia which then pushes into the SE.

So as you can see this isn't a SE event. The midlands will probably see a spell of snow followed by clear skies and dropping temps. However for E Anglia/SE you will see a spell of snow followed by a brief spell of clear skies before the snow showers move in.

[johnholmes]

Interesting T36 chart...Not sure if it will affect Berks Bucks and Oxon.

We did very well out of the last streamer though, notwithstanding the disruption. I do think tomorrows shows more potential and it really does depend how far south it gets. The North downs could get a few inches though.

As some say, it will be v interesting weather watching and radar monitoring tomorrow.

As a random and probably bad call. BUT would it be possible to set up a map, with some black lines and labelled areas. I say this because peoples interpretation of regions can be very different. It could be a guide for netweather and then at least people would know what regions refer to where. I dont proclaim to be stupid with regards to this. But where I live has been referred to as the South East, south and central south..and thats purely by dfferent agencies boundaries.....Just an idea...and i stick with central south.

have a look the Met O definitions of areas with each county listed John

Certainly Berkshire would be SE England I would have thought.

Much as in many walks of life, announcers and indeed some Met O forecasters are sometimes guilty though of allocating a country or an area within a county to differing regions.

[PB22]

ECM 12Z on the way out, and is another corker of a run this Friday evening:

T+72:

T+96:

T+120:

Would bring a good snow risk to many areas!

[bluearmy]

dont know what toi look at first - the T72 FAX with the occlusion headed south and looking ne for the trough. the T120 ecm with the disturbance running west into the SE. lets hope the latter stages of ecm dont put a cloud over these percip upgrades

[TEITS]

Occluded front moves S on Monday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

Now at +60 we actually see a warm front followed by a cold front in Scotland/N England. However what happens is the cold front catches the warm front up so it becomes occluded.

[phil nw.]

ECM 12Z on the way out, and is another corker of a run this Friday evening:

T+72: http://www.meteociel...CM1-72.GIF?01-0

T+96: http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?01-0

T+120: http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?01-0

Would bring a good snow risk to many areas!

Yes they just keep coming don`t they Paul.

The T120hrs looks great when Wettered.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

V.Cold and unstable.