General Model Output Discussion

[Methuselah]

A new thread...

[Mikel Nimbus]

Happy new year all. Why I'm on here I'm not sure but I couldn't resist a look at GFS 18z. The rest of the party think I'm being very anti social.

18z is certainly a lot better than ECM 12z for the longer term. I hope it's not my beer goggles talking though. Happy times!!!! :lol:

[Freezing-Point]

Either I have my 'beer goggles' on or thats heavy snow outside (check the radar for 01.30 for my region).

I have been waiting for a NEly like this for years... HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

I am going out for a snowball fight with the neigbourghs.......

Edited January 1, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[Terminal Moraine]

The GFS 1800z at 324 hrs is the stuff that dreams are made of. A temp' of -4c, heavy snow and a strong wind, what a shame it's not 300 hours nearer.

[Rollo]

Still looks good for at least several days and a Happy New year to all-enjoy the snow as I am sure most will end up with some.

[yamkin]

The GFS 1800z at 324 hrs is the stuff that dreams are made of. A temp' of -4c, heavy snow and a strong wind, what a shame it's not 300 hours nearer.

Just got back home through the light snow and Happy New Year to all at Netweather.

Must say, most interesting GFS 18Z for cold.

[Optimus Prime]

Head up 00Z is rearing it's (hopefully) optimistic head.

[djwayne]

Firstly happy new year to everyone

I have to say ( maybe slightly off topic if i am nods please delete) but a big thank you to the people who post in this thread day in day out. I dont know a lot about the models etc and am learning but some of the posts from the likes of john holmes, steve murr , TEITS , WIB and TWS are excellent(if i have missed anyone out i am sorry there are too many good posters).

All i have done this winter as i am a snow freak is read the model discusion thread find something i didnt undestand and go research it whether it be a model run or a piece of terminolgy.

This site is awseome i know people get a bit irritated when things don't go their way but I am learning loads and enjoying the experience of being here although i dont post a lot I am gaining knowledge.

Keep up the good work al and I hope as i understand it the current cold spell extends as far as is expected as i am sure we will have some exceptional weather out of it

[yamkin]

Very impressive UK ppn from the GFS 00Z 36h, 42h & 48h charts :lol: :lol:

36h shows ppn over the North. 42h & 48h shows the ppn spreading from North to South.

[Optimus Prime]

Yup this run pushed snow more further Inland.

Which is why we always ask people rather then autosuggest it'll be dry wait until troughs get firmed up.

[East Herts Snow]

Very impressive UK ppn from the GFS 00Z 36h, 42h & 48h charts

36h shows ppn over the North. 42h & 48h shows the ppn spreading from North to South.

Must admit yamkin, there is much more PPN on this run, looks like a decent snow chance for a lot of the country on Tuesday as well.

Will the 0h ECM run come back on board later?

Edited January 1, 2010 by North Londoner

[yamkin]

Yup this run pushed snow more further Inland.

Which is why we always ask people rather then autosuggest it'll be dry wait until troughs get firmed up.

GFS & UKMO earlier model runs showed ppn in certain E/SE areas for NYE/NYD, but many dismissed this. Guess what, about 15 mins ago we had a very heavy snow shower with covering. It goes to show as you rightly pointed out, 'wait until troughs get firmed up' in a matter of speaking.

Off to bed now and Happy New Year to all

Edited January 1, 2010 by yamkin

[Optimus Prime]

Look what we have here;

[East Herts Snow]

LOL, a low develops North of Scotland at +168 hours and slides South bringing heavy snow across most parts.

Although this is mainly in the low resolution part of the run.

Another superb run, hopefully ECM is a better run later.

Edited January 1, 2010 by North Londoner

[londonsnow]

spectacular 0z. an epic cold spell coming up. a parcel of 510 air knocking on the door of the southeast in FI made me smile. just snowed in london

[SMU]

Not a bad I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad run- operational only has -14c's into the SE in FI now-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-252.png?0

ensemble mean now -11c at 168- an upgrade on the 18z

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-168.png?0

S

[mackerel sky]

Wow... 00z is the benchmark. Would be nice to see some better prospects of wintery precipitation in the shorter term. Certainly won't melt. Those areas that do have decent snow cover can't expect any thaw whatsoever. We do need the cold to move into Central Europe proper, which it will, particuarly if a SEly pops up at some point.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

what times the ECM 00z out? Have a nice covering of frozen powder snow here in Dublin, about 2" inches or 5CM!!!!! Temp -1.0C .

Happy new year everyone!!!

Dan

Edited January 1, 2010 by SNOWPLOUGH

[The Eagle]

00z UKMO is very useful.

[Optimus Prime]

00z UKMO is very useful.

Fantastic output by the Met tonight.

[Eugene]

This morning OP

Yes stunning output, this is just incredible

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Something more severe likely than the low res is showing there IMO

[Optimus Prime]

Back in buisiness. ECM has gone for the very cold scenario again.

Compared to 12Z

[MR EXTREMES]

after lastnights downbeat mood things once again are firming up with some nice wintry weather,

also woke up and although clear and cold noticed a dusting of snow has fallen here on the south coast:drinks:.

the radar is already starting to show showers gathering down the eastern side of both england and scotland infact scotland looking very impressive indeed.

the models sre very intune with each other thats why im certain the ecm lastnight had a bad moment,

steve is a little dissapointed but its still going to be cold with some good snowy prospects.

heres to new year and perhapes a new winter trend:cold:

Back in buisiness. ECM has gone for the very cold scenario again.

Compared to 12Z

if im not mistaken this mornings chart is a blast from avery cold source indeed absolutely freezing stuff infact 80s stuff.

Edited January 1, 2010 by badboy657

[Methuselah]

The latest Fax charts look very impressive for snowfall potential. Quite a few troughs coming South!

[KTtom]

The latest Fax charts look very impressive for snowfall potential. Quite a few troughs coming South!

Looking at the fax's it does look promising for some snow, what is slightly worrying is that the met are still talking about the prospect of a mixture of rain/sleet and snow showers. If we can't get 100% snow in this set up we are in trouble!

The real cold air always seems to be around 3 days away, temps for tomorrow look to be around 4c for most...not far of average. I'm not moaning before I get shot down, just stating the facts.