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J10

General Model Output Discussion

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A new thread as the other one is getting rather full.

Please keep the discussion model related and be respectful to one another.

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Cold upper air looks slightly further west to me on that run, so less marginal temperatures than on the GFS at the T+72 stage.

I will be interested to see the remainder of this run but don't expect any major changes relative to the 00Z this side of T+168.

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ECM 12Z 96h is looking good with the Channel Low to the South :lol:

post-2721-12621969878213_thumb.gif

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The low to the southwest threatens on ECM at T+96, but decides against it and sinks away by T+120, leaving us to look northeast...

ECM1-120.GIF?30-0

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The charts from NOGAPS are good and show that Channel Low well. It's fun to move the mouse over the chart times and watch that Channel Low move across!

Really cold air following that Channel Low into next week if this all goes to plan.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

Absolute peach of a chart at T+120 from the ECMWF 12Z! :lol: :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

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And in comes the North Easterly at T+144: (ECM)

post-10203-12621977629513_thumb.gif

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

And in comes the North Easterly at T+144: (ECM)

post-10203-12621977629513_thumb.gif

Liking that chart - the north sea might start to do its work!biggrin.gif

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The charts from NOGAPS are good and show that Channel Low well. It's fun to move the mouse over the chart times and watch that Channel Low move across!

Really cold air following that Channel Low into next week if this all goes to plan.

http://www.meteociel...apse_cartes.php

Interesting tonite. The 06z GFS was off on one then by moving the system too far north. Well if it does come as far north as BTL i'd be happy, large dump of snow for the West Country! clap.gif

Prob won't, as i said earlier and Ian Fergusson on the S.W. thread had hinted will prob just get into Cornwall, parts of Devon and then slope off down to France.

Meanwhile we'll be left in a bitter cold feed from E, E/NE or N, but dry as a camel's backside !

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well its good to see such prominent blocking over southern greenland and iceland, promoting the evidence of a very negative NAO at the moment. also good to see this is more east based, and with a southerly tracking jet stream, this means we are better situated when it comes to cold. the bands of precip arent quite as marginal as if they were further north, giving snow on their northern flank. as long as the greenland high stays where it is, and the scandi trough stays intact, things could stay on the chilly side. also, as long as the jet stream is well suppressed to the south, we dont have the marginal situations, or the precip pushing that far north either, so the south could benefit from these situations.

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Like to see the jet get a bit flatter on the ECM so the LP shifts more to the east, looks like it's struggling a bit. or is that me getting nervous! :lol:

if the no gaps and ecm are getting your a little worried then you should be because there peach for cold.:lol:

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A cold outlook.

ECM1-168.GIF?30-0

Where's Steve Murr and his brilliant over-excited posts!? :lol:

Edit: aha!

Someone pinch me-

FANTASTICO !!!!!!!!

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Like to see the jet get a bit flatter on the ECM so the LP shifts more to the east, looks like it's struggling a bit. or is that me getting nervous! :unknw:

:clap:

post-2721-12621981423613_thumb.gif

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I must confess to not being an expert on the Thames streamer, ask me about the Wash streamer and I will bore you all evening. However looking at the ECM so far surely a Thames streamer would develop?

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Like to see the jet get a bit flatter on the ECM so the LP shifts more to the east, looks like it's struggling a bit. or is that me getting nervous! :unknw:

I think your getting a bit nervous there mate and so are we all we are on the money for a January to remember severe cold right up too the second week off jan at least and the lot its a cracking chart and it is not fi and it has a lot off support.

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Ecm t168 would be a snowfest nationwide yes or no anybody!!!!!

No, not nationwide!

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I must confess to not being an expert on the Thames streamer, ask me about the Wash streamer and I will bore you all evening. However looking at the ECM so far surely a Thames streamer would develop?

Apart from the upper air parameters - which require very similar soundings as yours the key is the SURFACE Flow of between 265 degrees ( MAX EASTERLY) to 250 degrees ( MAX NORTHERLY COMPONENT) as you can see a small Window-

ECM 120 + 144 is frontal snowfall for the south, 168 is perfect convective stuff for the South East- ( PERFECT WINDFLOW but to north for a Streamer)-

it probably wouldnt matter anyway with the PPN hangover from the front...

This however ( 192) is a PERFFECCCCT CHART !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ECH1-192.GIF?30-0

STREAMER

S

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