Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowplough33]

The cold spell is still ongoing SP33, despite this warm-up blip (which is now coming to a close...)

We've had snow from all angles this past 2 weeks - sometimes implausibly so ! Not that I'd put my mortgage on the models but it seems likely that we have at least another 2 weeks of cold up here ... things will change during that time .... and there will be further snow threats to come, some of which will happen even if we can't say where or when yet.

If you go back to the cold winters from the mid-late 70's to the 1980's ... then often the best guide to the weeks ahead ... was the preceeding weeks. The past 2 weeks have been exceptionally interesting here and it looks very likely to be the case going forward !

Enjoy !

Thank you and appoligies.........I cant help it sometimes . And I know this cold spell is something special with no end in sight. The largest fall we had last week was one that rolled down the coast from Aberdeen and was never mentioned on any forecast, except a few were talking about it on here.

There is great lump developing around the Inverness area for some of you guys, and that is linked into a band that stretches right across to Peterhead.

[Methuselah]

There is great lump developing around the Inverness area for some of you guys, and that is linked into a band that stretches right across to Peterhead.

Yes. I know! :lol: :lol:

[Argyllcraig]

Squalls have all passed away west here, sitting at 3c just now and still very windy... could be alot of ice tonight once the temps go sub zero again

[Shadow]

Chucking it down with snow here. We have had 6 - 8 inches of lying snow for over a week and not been above freezing until today.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hard to say if this one will deliver for Fife and Angus, but as SP33 mentioned, we got a big dumping off another trough coming in from the NNE.

[JRMcLeod]

So what is the main problems being faced these next few days...i have read most of the posts but cant quite pin down whats truley being said. The MetO have released a weather warning for Heavy snow etc but the temp feels way wrong for that. What is the general trend for today, tomorrow etc?

Wind direction?

Wind Source?

Temp Prediction (upper/Lower)?

Areas worst affected by potential snow?

And lastly time span of likely snow event?

Sorry for all the questions but i'm super curious!

[AlexM94]

thats the temps falling here now down to 2.5° C it was about 4 earlier so i think the colder air is returning

[Snowplough33]

LS, the above questions must mean time for one of your nowcasts!!

Edited December 30, 2009 by Snowplough33

[Methuselah]

So what is the main problems being faced these next few days...i have read most of the posts but cant quite pin down whats truley being said. The MetO have released a weather warning for Heavy snow etc but the temp feels way wrong for that. What is the general trend for today, tomorrow etc?

Wind direction?

Wind Source?

Temp Prediction (upper/Lower)?

Areas worst affected by potential snow?

And lastly time span of likely snow event?

Sorry for all the questions but i'm super curious!

My guesstimate is:

Wind will back more to the North and bring colder air with it; and wintry showers will turn to sleet or snow...Temps will fall away after this afternoon...

For future days, much is uncertain; but, there's a chance that a shortwave feature will approach from the NE bringing heavier snowfall to many Northern and Eastern areas...That said, it may all go pearshaped??? :smiliz46:

[Snowplough33]

My guesstimate is:

Wind will back more to the North and bring colder air with it; and wintry showers will turn to sleet or snow...Temps will fall away after this afternoon...

For future days, much is uncertain; but, there's a chance that a shortwave feature will approach from the NE bringing heavier snowfall to many Northern and Eastern areas...That said, it may all go pearshaped???

Ah there it is again.........what exactly is a "shortwave event", and whats required for it??

[Sunny Leith]

Attached photo of Leith back garden/bowling club taken 30 minutes ago. Astonishing what held on despite the ravages of wind and rain this last 24 hours. A real testament to the cold we've had thus far !

Edit: 2 weeks that bowling green has been covered in snow, excellent chance it'll look like that 2 weeks from now !

Edited December 30, 2009 by by-tor

[Snooz]

The MetO have released a weather warning for Heavy snow etc

That's maybe the biggest worry, we've done OK so far with them ignoring us :smiliz46:

j/k.. temps now falling away nicely, let's see what the clouds bring!

Ah there it is again.........what exactly is a "shortwave event", and whats required for it??

I think and others do cmiiw please, it's that kink in the pressure lines that's been coming down the coast of Norway? and I presume there is a bit of extra weather associated with it.. at least that's my laymans interpretation

[Sunny Leith]

That's maybe the biggest worry, we've done OK so far with them ignoring us :smiliz46:

j/k.. temps now falling away nicely, let's see what the clouds bring!

I think and others do cmiiw please, it's that kink in the pressure lines that's been coming down the coast of Norway? and I presume there is a bit of extra weather associated with it.. at least that's my laymans interpretation

I agree about the metoffice ... strikes me as a bit of hind-casting on their part.

[Hairy Celt]

I agree about the metoffice ... strikes me as a bit of hind-casting on their part.

or retrospective bottom-covering :smiliz46:

hail here; everything's white again...

Edited December 30, 2009 by Hairy Celt

[JRMcLeod]

So can someone please clarify why there is such a difference in temp from an ENE/E off of the Sea and a N/NNE off of the sea? Surely the sea temps arent that varied are they?

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS, the above questions must mean time for one of your nowcasts!!

Indeed, lol. Wind direction is generally Northeast, though the source is pretty much straight from the arctic.

Upper air temperatures are likely to be between -6 and -10, which is pretty conclusive for snow, though the air temperatures are lagging slightly behind this today, but will drop away to around freezing by early tomorrow morning.

My guess for the worst affected by potential snow is the northeast mostly, though when the wind does turn a bit more to the east or a trough pushes through then central eastern areas and the borders are likely to do quite well also. The first event to watch is the trough pushing south from the Moray Firth. The precipitation from this band will be mainly snow for central areas, though some milder coastal spots in the northeast may see it as rain or sleet for a time. It's hard to tell where abouts this trough will end up, and whether there will be more to come in the next 18 hours, but with the winds still backing more northeasterly than northerly East central has a chance of seeing something from it. You can also see more showers in behind this band, with the fax charts showing a trough across the central belt by 6am tomorrow. After that, it's quite hard to call, but Hogmanay evening sees a fairly significant risk of heavy snowfall across eastern and central Scotland as winds blow the showers inland.. Shortwaves are pockets of cool air aloft in the upper air level, which can develop into a trough and bring significant frontal precipitation. There is the potential for a snow event to affect some areas by Saturday, but this is quite far off. Also, as Catch pointed out, the conditions on Thursday/Friday are fairly conduicive to the formation of polar lows. These are very hard to predict as they only appear on mesoscale models e.g. the NMM, at around about 18 hours before formation. Again, these can bring very heavy snowfall, though they also tend to be quite shortlived after they make landfall. In summary, northern and northeastern areas can expect lots of snow over the coming days, with those further south and particularly those further west relying on a bit of luck to get a decent amount of snow.

LS

edit: Anyone remember this?

Kind of similar setup (though this one was much more shortlived), but it brought about 4 inches to Angus, Perthshire and North Fife, though I assume it delivered further north also.

Edited December 30, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowplough33]

Here we go again.......look at the trafic cameras north of Aviemore and at Huntly

http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/

[Methuselah]

Well the cold front (or whatever) up to our NNW looks positively scary...Bring it on!! :smiliz46:

And, for goodnes sake, stop whining about the MetO. Could you do any better in a three-minute broadcast?? And - do they have more than 9000 members glued to the radar for twenty-four hours' each day??

[Snowplough33]

Well the cold front (or whatever) up to our NNW looks positively scary...Bring it on!!

And, for goodnes sake, stop whining about the MetO. Could you do any better in a three-minute broadcast?? And - do they have more than 9000 members glued to the radar for twenty-four hours' each day??

I am also a very keen golfer and the MO for checking weather throughout the summer and I have to say in there defence that they are generally very good

Good summary LS.........are you actually a forecaster.........

[LomondSnowstorm]

I am also a very keen golfer and the MO for checking weather throughout the summer and I have to say in there defence that they are generally very good

Good summary LS.........are you actually a forecaster.........

Aspiring to be one, but really just a guy who spent a wee bit of time reading the model discussion page in the months before it turned into a total rabble!!

[Stuart]

Lucky I was not comeing down today

Edited December 30, 2009 by Stuart

[LomondSnowstorm]

Odd, there are geese raking around for food in the garden - shouldn't they have left by now??

[JRMcLeod]

Thanks LS, well i'd rather read your reports than watch TV for the info!

[Methuselah]

Hail/snow shower just gone through!

[howham]

Max of 2.8C here today but there's been very little thawing and in fact much of the cm that fell last night is still lying on top of the old snow. Temps have started dropping here (now at 1.8C, DP 0.4C) and snow/soft hail showers are becoming more frequent.