Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

and a really lardy fry-up :lol:

[m3>535d]

Looks like the metoffice are nowcasting aswell.

The forecast just changed .... Now saying heavy snow again.

The precipitation may have pepped up a little on it's way here .... ??

Nick

[andy_leics22]

and a really lardy fry-up

Ah now a fry up I do feel in the mood for :lol:

Hmmm Met Office just have a weather advisory out for Leicestershire, not a warning though

[A.J]

jeez, its cold....quite an easterly breeze brewing up.....2.2C...nothing falling out of the sky at present, although looking at the ground, something has fallen the past hour or two....The temps though seems rather high for this time of day to be condusive of snow, also dew-points are the wrong side of marginal at present...we'll just have to see what happens!

[azores92]

jeez, its cold....quite an easterly breeze brewing up.....2.2C...nothing falling out of the sky at present, although looking at the ground, something has fallen the past hour or two....The temps though seems rather high for this time of day to be condusive of snow, also dew-points are the wrong side of marginal at present...we'll just have to see what happens!

not holding out much hope here it has to be said

[andy_leics22]

Flippin eck, just seen myself in the mirror, Frankenstein could be given a run for his money

Temps looking dangerous here, 2.4c with a dew of 0.3c, bugger.

[azores92]

Flippin eck, just seen myself in the mirror, Frankenstein could be given a run for his money

Temps looking dangerous here, 2.4c with a dew of 0.3c, bugger.

not worth staying up for it andy

[A.J]

not worth staying up for it andy

nope, as right now, its.......raining

[I remember Atlantic 252]

temp is too warm 2.1C, bbc still going for snow this evening, but cant see temp dropping

have an awful feeling this will be a repeat of 9th feb 09

[andy_leics22]

not worth staying up for it andy

Haha, I fell asleep about 3:30am and woke up at 7:30am. I am going back to bed soon-ish for an extra few hours kip, I canot function with anything less than 8 hours so right now i'm running on auto-pilot

[A.J]

nope, as right now, its.......raining

mind you, in this marginal situation, to start off as a cold rain isnt surprising given the light ppn....Hope the heavier ppn gets here, might just be enough factors in place by then to help turn to snow

[loopydreamer]

just been to met office website and the orange areas have increased to a bit furter east! now worcestershire is in the orange!

c'mon snow! u can make it here!

hellooooo andy

surprised to hear from u at all this early!

thought you would still be out of it, totally comatosed! have u thrown up yet! poor bugger

[Nabraxas]

It was 1.4c when I left home but it's 0.5c at work... that pptn band seems a bit ahead of itself considering they said it would reach this area in the afternoon?

[andy_leics22]

just been to met office website and the orange areas have increased to a bit furter east! now worcestershire is in the orange!

c'mon snow! u can make it here!

hellooooo andy

surprised to hear from u at all this early!

thought you would still be out of it, totally comatosed! have u thrown up yet! poor bugger

Heyyy Lmao well I have had 4 hours sleep and I feel awful but surprisingly I haven't thrown up yet Just managed a cup of tea and a bit to eat, I think it's because I was drinking cider. If I would have had 6 beers I would have been sick probably because that seems to disagree with me the morning after but cider seems to be a lot kinder to me :lol:

It's raining here, hope this isn't a sign of things to come, I warned last night that I didn't think any low ground in the Midlands would see anything near 6 inches like some people were predicting and I got shot down in flames. It's early days but this is a bad sign to be honest, not much snow around in Wales so far and temps looking dodgy for the whole of the Midlands too.

Edited December 29, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Snowmoon]

It was 1.4c when I left home but it's 0.5c at work... that pptn band seems a bit ahead of itself considering they said it would reach this area in the afternoon?

The MO radar suggests that the precip is in 2 bands. It may be the more southerly band that they're expecting most of the snow to come out of.

Just started to drizzle here in Malvern (840ft ASL). Don't know what the temp is, but there was no overnight frost and it's fairly breezy.

[Lewis]

Hey guy's, hope you don't mind me crashing in your thread for the day, if not just tell me to bugger off lol.

Can anyone give me your dew points please.

thanks,

lewis

[Snowedunder]

Dry here in Derby. Ground wet from earlier frost melt. Partly cloudy, temp 1.5.

[andy_leics22]

Hey guy's, hope you don't mind me crashing in your thread for the day, if not just tell me to bugger off lol.

Can anyone give me your dew points please.

thanks,

lewis

No problem at all *grabs you a chair* Now time to admit us Midlanders rule :lol:

Dew here is 0.3c

[loopydreamer]

Heyyy Lmao well I have had 4 hours sleep and I feel awful but surprisingly I haven't thrown up yet Just managed a cup of tea and a bit to eat, I think it's because I was drinking cider. If I would have had 6 beers I would have been sick probably because that seems to disagree with me the morning after but cider seems to be a lot kinder to me

It's raining here, hope this isn't a sign of things to come, I warned last night that I didn't think any low ground in the Midlands would see anything near 6 inches like some people were predicting and I got shot down in flames. It's early days but this is a bad sign to be honest, not much snow around in Wales so far and temps looking dodgy for the whole of the Midlands too.

it aint raining here atm! very dark and grey tho!

tbh! i didn't think we would get alot of lying snow here but i hang on to hope that we will get some snow today falling from the sky!

its still early and there is some heavy snow falling in south east wales atm so im gonna stay confident!

i had 5 stella's lastnight and im beginning to feel a bit queezy! might need to have a nap 4 a few hours aswell

[andy_leics22]

it aint raining here atm! very dark and grey tho!

tbh! i didn't think we would get alot of lying snow here but i hang on to hope that we will get some snow today falling from the sky!

its still early and there is some heavy snow falling in south east wales atm so im gonna stay confident!

i had 5 stella's lastnight and im beginning to feel a bit queezy! might need to have a nap 4 a few hours aswell

5 stellas!! You are a hard woman :lol:

If I had 5 stellas last night I would be feeling a lot worse right now! To be honest it is still all to play for at the moment, temps may drop a degree later under heavy PPN.

TEITS if you are reading this... I mentioned last night that I hope this didn't go TEITS up... Well it just may do for Leicester if it carries on like this

[loopydreamer]

5 stellas!! You are a hard woman

If I had 5 stellas last night I would be feeling a lot worse right now! To be honest it is still all to play for at the moment, temps may drop a degree later under heavy PPN.

TEITS if you are reading this... I mentioned last night that I hope this didn't go TEITS up... Well it just may do for Leicester if it carries on like this

i love lager/beer! drunk loads of the stuff since 15 yrs old! i take after my dad! we go out to the pubs and drink all the ales! love it!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Morning all, and what a continuation of confusion of what is going to happen.

So...just may take on things this morning, which I think I will split in to West Midlands (Birmingham, Staffs, Worcs) and East Midlands (mainly the likes of Leics, Derbys. Warks and Northants).

West Midlands:

PPN will remain in the morning heaviest in the south and west, turning more readily to snow over elevation. Sleet more likely on lower levels, with rain possible also the further north and west of this region. However, this is likely to be more associated with the first front coming through.

As the second front moves through, the snow level is likely to drop, and I would go for initially one step up in terms of ppn type (rain -> sleet; sleet -> snow; snow -> heavier snow). This will be mainly for the early evening. As the evening progresses, I would expect the ppn to turn readily to snow for most areas, with a covering in the morning (perhaps the more central band (latitude) being more at risk overnight from heavier snowfall.

East Midlands:

A much trickier situation really. I would say most of the region will actually experience rain to start with, although s/w warks could see some sleet to lower levels (perhaps some snow on higher elevations).

As the afternoon progresses, I would say that ppn type is likely to remain the same for these areas, but a risk of the ppn becoming more wintry towards the likes of Leics (the further south and west the better) and Northants (the further north and west the better).

Again, a central belt (latitude) through the East Midlands is likely to see more rain.

As we go into the evening, ppn is likely to turn again more wintry, with the more north and west benefiting most, although north and east regions are also at risk of snowfall.

However, I would also urge some caution for this region, as whilst I foresee snow actually falling at at least some points, it is a much lower risk compared to the West Midlands.

For the East Midlands, there is also a risk of the snow or wintry ppn turning back to rain in the early hours. So some may see no snow during the day (up to lets say 11pm), with snow falling later, turning back to rain and melting the snow.

An interesting view this morning on the GEFS ensembles, which I have to admit, I have only viewed for Derbyshire. Have a look at the 850hpa's. For Derbyshire, all members go for a value above -5oC for today...except the ctrl run. Notice how it keeps it at -5oC, however, ppn is lower, but still interesting.

At such a short time frame (<T+24), it really is very difficult with even members of the same model having such disagreement. Amazing.

Oh...and don't worry about outside temps just yet. You may see a drop in temps, followed by a rise again. Snow does not need to fall in temps lower than 0oC. Its a bit of a myth really, but does help (but again, not an absolute) for snow settlement.

Andy - Lets just say, BBC are going for rain here, but in Leicester....snow

Edited December 29, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[loopydreamer]

m gonna go and get a gallon of coffee, have a ciggie and see if its drizzling outside yet! see ya in a bit fellow midlanders

[andy_leics22]

i love lager/beer! drunk loads of the stuff since 15 yrs old! i take after my dad! we go out to the pubs and drink all the ales! love it!

Coorrr,, they build em ard in Worcestershire don't they

SB1... I would love some snow here in Leicester, I don't get how we would see some and you wouldn't though, you are closer to the colder air than we are :lol:

[TEITS]

5 stellas!! You are a hard woman

If I had 5 stellas last night I would be feeling a lot worse right now! To be honest it is still all to play for at the moment, temps may drop a degree later under heavy PPN.

TEITS if you are reading this... I mentioned last night that I hope this didn't go TEITS up... Well it just may do for Leicester if it carries on like this :lol:

Early days yet mate.

A couple of things I will say is the BBC suggest the precip will reach the N Pennines. Personally I cannot see this happening. Also when you look at the Met O radar the blues will only give rain, however the greens/yellows are what we need. I still maintain that come late afternoon/evening/overnight it will become very interesting over the Midlands.