Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 9

[Cookie]

hevay snow here.

falling on top of frozen ground.

going to be an intresting drive to work

[Snowplough33]

The 18Z is out, and it's an upgrade for the cold anyway - generally less precipitation around on Tuesday night (though with convection showers you can never be sure) but the threat of coastal rain into Wednesday appears to have been avoided - this is the mildest the thicknesses get between now and this time next week (probably) and even this is conduicive to snow in most areas. As many others, including TWS on the model output discussion, have said, the models generally underestimate easterly convective showers, so details are far from decided, but I doubt anyone would claim that the showers wouldn't be heavy or penetrate very far inland with wind speeds like this:

Most posters on the model thread are suggesting the snow showers in eastern Scotland could last until Saturday, with winds alternating between a straight easterly (ESE for about 6 hours tomorrow) and a NNEsterly, giving most areas about 24 hours under the the wind speed that geographically favours them (barring those surrounded by hills to the north and east!). Obviously, eastern areas are favoured, especially the northeast corner if winds are north of east more often than not, but I'm fairly confident some fairly significant accumulations could even occur across western Scotland. Basically, this is all of the major easterly/northeasterly convective events of the last few years rolled into one 5/6 day long period - bring it on!

LS

edit: just seen catch is polar low speculating again

I think the necessary requirement for it is a big high to the west and lows to the east in a northerlyish flow. If so, Hogmanay looks perfect for it:

That would be the way to end the year!

Thankyou LS. I have been out tonight, so my head is slightly fuzzy , but this is what I needed to read to avoid trying to trawl through charts and forecasts ect!!!

Sounds good and I am now going to bed as there are going to be some late nights this week snow watching.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Yeah, Benbecula been reporting scary temps recently due to a fault. Which begs the question, just how reliable are some of these UK weather stations? Where exactly are some of them located - are they a true reflection? I know many of the US surface temp stations are laughable when you see where they are plonked (next to mega car-parks etc) but don't really know anything about the surface stations here in the UK? I passed by Loch Glascarnoch reporting station this year and that really is a neat looking weather station - LINK

Yeah I thought there must be some sort of fault. If there were to be a record low temperature it surely wouldn't be out there!

Wonder if the temp will drop much lower in Glasgow tonight. -10 a possibility? If not tonight, another night? At least it means the snow has stopped melting,although when you're walking home after a night out it's bloomin treacherous! :blink:

[Guest]

edit: just seen catch is polar low speculating again

Just speculating conditions may be right over Norway, although I am always wrong.

Let's see, 500hpa temps of below -40C and an upper trough over Norway:

A baroclinic zone (in this case a huge thermal gradient within an area of constant pressure) (or put simply, slack wind blowing off a very cold Norway at -20C onto a warmer North Sea at 4C):

I know I am clutching at straws, but this beats looking for wispy clouds hands down :blink:

Edited December 28, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just speculating conditions may be right over Norway, although I am always wrong.

Let's see, 500hpa temps of below -40C and an upper trough over Norway:

A baroclinic zone (in this case a huge temperature gradient within an area of constant pressure) (or put simply, slack wind blowing off a very cold Norway at -20C onto a warmer North Sea at 4C):

I was just joking about you always speculating polar lows, I mean these conditions do look pretty good for polar lows to form there (my knowledge of polar lows is very limited and you seem to know much more about it than me). Whether they make landfall or not is another matter, but it is interesting to watch nonetheless.

[Mondy]

If it's a NE'ly or northerly, then a PL can occur. They are rare, mind. Fascinating features too - google them.

G'night all. Damn, I have to awake in 6 hours for work B)

[Guest]

I was just joking about you always speculating polar lows, I mean these conditions do look pretty good for polar lows to form there (my knowledge of polar lows is very limited and you seem to know much more about it than me). Whether they make landfall or not is another matter, but it is interesting to watch nonetheless.

I knew you were joking LS , but it is interesting that conditions may well be favourable. Conditions look good for all sorts of ice bound kitchen sinks to continue to hit us

If it's a NE'ly or northerly, then a PL can occur. They are rare, mind. Fascinating features too - google them.

G'night all. Damn, I have to awake in 6 hours for work

B)

Don't envy you sliding around tomorrow, do the Post Office issue snowshoes??

Yeah I thought there must be some sort of fault. If there were to be a record low temperature it surely wouldn't be out there!

Wonder if the temp will drop much lower in Glasgow tonight. -10 a possibility? If not tonight, another night? At least it means the snow has stopped melting,although when you're walking home after a night out it's bloomin treacherous! B)

Temps are climbing again at Glasgow Airport, up to the heady heights of -5C at the last check. Still, there is yet another severe frost outside. I haven't seen frost stay on trees all day since the 95. This cold spell is now moving from remarkable to outstanding, but that's just my opinion. I do feel many others on here will share this opinion though. And how much more do we have to look forward to?? 2 weeks of snow in total. 3 weeks??? 4??

[Sunny Leith]

2 observations from having just seen the BBC Scottish News/ BBC National Weather Forecast

1) Pete Irvine of 'Unique Events', who organise the Edinburgh Hogmany celebrartions saying that.... "at least there wouldn't be any weather worries this year, just wrap up warm". He might be better getting his advice on Hogmanay weather from this Netweather thread, rather than (I presume) the metoffice ... as there is a fair chance that could prove to be yet another "famous last words" kind of statement that he's just utterred there...

2) Rob McElwee's Wednesday forecast had a single small cursory random blob of cloud/precipitation on the Scottish east coast (looked like a token afterthought) If they get the next few days as badly wrong as they did some 12 days ago ... then their credibility in these parts will go from its current shaky level ... down to an absolutely permanent zero,zilch,nada,nowt, nuffink...

Edited December 28, 2009 by by-tor

[lorenzo]

No sign of any let up in the cold air anytime soon and the charts for 01/01/2010 show little sign of that pattern changing.

We have solid thick frozen snow now everywhere. If there is more to follow then the anticipated continued freeze for the end of this week then there will be seemingly no let up and travel won't get any easier.

Plenty of cold.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=18&mode=1&carte=1

[stewfox]

I knew you were joking LS , but it is interesting that conditions may well be favourable. Conditions look good for all sorts of ice bound kitchen sinks to continue to hit us

Don't envy you sliding around tomorrow, do the Post Office issue snowshoes??

Temps are climbing again at Glasgow Airport, up to the heady heights of -5C at the last check. Still, there is yet another severe frost outside. I haven't seen frost stay on trees all day since the 95. This cold spell is now moving from remarkable to outstanding, but that's just my opinion. I do feel many others on here will share this opinion though. And how much more do we have to look forward to?? 2 weeks of snow in total. 3 weeks??? 4??

Its a great pity you dont have 50 million people living in Scotland as some remarkable weather is going on up there.

Wasnt it the BBC today who said it might have another -15c ish up there but all eyes on this frontal snow in the south

How long has Glasgow now been in this cold snap.

Interesting what their 'CET' would be for last 10 days.

Anyway got me new business set up now moonbootsforglasgow.com

[LomondSnowstorm]

2 observations from having just seen the BBC Scottish News/ BBC National Weather Forecast

1) Pete Irvine of 'Unique Events', who organise the Edinburgh Hogmany celebrartions saying that.... "at least there wouldn't be any weather worries this year, just wrap up warm". He might be better getting his advice on Hogmanay weather from this Netweather thread, rather than (I presume) the metoffice ... as there is a fair chance that could prove to be yet another "famous last words" kind of statement that he's just utterred there...

2) Rob McElwee's Wednesday forecast had a single small cursory random blob of cloud/precipitation on the Scottish east coast (looked like a token afterthought) If they get the next few days as badly wrong as they did some 12 days ago ... then their credibility in these parts will go from its current shaky level ... down to an absolutely permanent zero,zilch,nada,nowt, nuffink...

I don't honestly see how we can avoid snow for most eastern areas from Wednesday onwards. The uppers are there, the SSTs are there, the convective inhibition is there, the wind speed and direction is there, I'm really struggling to see how it can miss anywhere on the east coast, barring one or two ridculously unlucky spots where it is marginally too mild or the showers somehow avoid the area. Somewhere in Eastern Scotland is going to get a big,big dumping,even by the ridiculously high standards of last week, in this coming week, and potentially all of Scotland will see more than last week. You heard it here first, folks - Scottish cold spell netweather discussion vs the Met. - who will win?

LS

Its a great pity you dont have 50 million people living in Scotland as some remarkable weather is going on up there.

Wasnt it the BBC today who said it might have another -15c ish up there but all eyes on this frontal snow in the south

How long has Glasgow now been in this cold snap.

Interesting what their 'CET' would be for last 10 days.

Anyway got me new business set up now moonbootsforglasgow.com

I believe Alness had easily sub-zero temperatures from last Monday until yesterday - the first snow started falling on the 17th and the latest one was yesterday morning, which gave nearly a foot in Perth - the mild air hasn't even tried to cross into the Caledonian Tundra!!

[Guest]

Its a great pity you dont have 50 million people living in Scotland as some remarkable weather is going on up there.

Wasnt it the BBC today who said it might have another -15c ish up there but all eyes on this frontal snow in the south

How long has Glasgow now been in this cold snap.

Interesting what their 'CET' would be for last 10 days.

Anyway got me new business set up now moonbootsforglasgow.com

I like the comment about 50million people :)

Glasgow City hasn't been too badly affected compared to other areas although they have had some snowfalls and ice days. I don't live there so I'm not sure exactly what has happened and any temps I quote are for the weather stations at Glasgow Airport (in Paisley/Renfrew) and Glasgow Bishopton (closer to Loch Lomond than Glasgow City Centre). Greater Glasgow has been affected, just look for Scott Anthony's posts, he had almost a foot of snow at one point, although not sure how much the slight thaw the other day may have melted that total.

However ( ) many other places even in west central Scotland have been affected, locally we now have about 5 inches of snow/ice which has gathered over various snowfalls and thaws which started here on the 20th Dec (I think). Today and Xmas eve have been the only days since the 19th not to have snow here, but it has taken time to build. I suspect if we get any more snow then most sideroads will become almost impassable, especially where there is any kind of incline involved. I seem to live in one of the least affected areas outside the main population centres and away from the coasts, but I can't really talk for other people. Also, I have to be honest and say it is all merging into one big snowy icy cold blob now, it is hard to keep track of all the different events of this cold spell.

Further afield in Scotland this cold spell has been much worse and can easily be described as severe.

And in addition to this, there is possibly a week or two or more to go....

I don't honestly see how we can avoid snow for most eastern areas from Wednesday onwards. The uppers are there, the SSTs are there, the convective inhibition is there, the wind speed and direction is there, I'm really struggling to see how it can miss anywhere on the east coast, barring one or two ridculously unlucky spots where it is marginally too mild or the showers somehow avoid the area.

LS

I am also struggling to see how there can't be snow well into central and possibly western Scotland too. The strength of the wind at times will carry showers far inland, especially where streamers occur. For example this type of chart screams to me "Forth-Clyde" streamer:

Although the wind forecast is much more NEly. Hmm, maybe not then...:lol:

[Mark H]

Also, I have to be honest and say it is all merging into one big snowy icy cold blob now, it is hard to keep track of all the different events of this cold spell.

Further afield in Scotland this cold spell has been much worse and can easily be described as severe.

And in addition to this, there is possibly a week or two or more to go....

Agree with all of that, im pretty sure today is the first day for 10 days snow has not fallen here,it seems to have slipped by the rest of Brittain just how bad this cold spell has been up here.One can only wander what would have happened if the South East experienced what we have here.

Not been able to watch any forecasts on T.V today due to what can only be described as a mini avalanche sliding off my roof yesterday taking out the guttering and my Sky dish,but going by the past weeks bbc efforts, im sure i havent missed much.

[Guest]

Not been able to watch any forecasts on T.V today due to what can only be described as a mini avalanche sliding off my roof yesterday taking out the guttering and my Sky dish,but going by the past weeks bbc efforts, im sure i havent missed much.

Sorry Mark, but I laughed at this part of your post. It isn't funny for you to lose your SKY but it is funny the way it happened

I hope you get your telly back soon. I saw something vaguely similar at Braehead today when a car loaded with snow on its roof braked sharply, only for all the snow to slide forward and completely cover the windscreen. The driver slapped on the wipers which just grunted loudly. I had to walk away quickly as I was laughing too much and it was too cold to linger.

[Mark H]

Sorry Mark, but I laughed at this part of your post. It isn't funny for you to lose your SKY but it is funny the way it happened

I hope you get your telly back soon. I saw something vaguely similar at Braehead today when a car loaded with snow on its roof braked sharply, only for all the snow to slide forward and completely cover the windscreen. The driver slapped on the wipers which just grunted loudly. I had to walk away quickly as I was laughing too much and it was too cold to linger.

Im sure i can manage without the Tv for a while,gives me more time to watch the radar!

[Sawel]

I see Strathallan in Perthshire has hit -12.7c at midnight (latest reading). Brrrrr

[spud_nick89]

Aviemore is reporting -15c on the BBC website just now

[Sawel]

Weatheronline shows Aviemore at -11.0c at 1am, with Tulloch Bridge at -14.1c and Strathallan at -13.5c.

Met Office website latest reading (1am) shows Aviemore at -11c too.

Spud_nick I went on the BBC website myself and what you're looking at is a forecasted figure, not an actual reading. It says forecast above -15c.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Sawel

[spud_nick89]

they dont make it to clear on the main page do they cheers sawel

Looking forward to some good snow fall in the coming days ,

just hopeing it dont affect my flight from glasgow airport in the early hours of saturday can anyone tell me what the charts are showing for then ??

[Sawel]

they dont make it to clear on the main page do they cheers sawel

Looking forward to some good snow fall in the coming days ,

just hopeing it dont affect my flight from glasgow airport in the early hours of saturday can anyone tell me what the charts are showing for then ??

Funny you should say that as I'm flying into Prestwick on saturday... Prestwick is normally milder and I'd be surprised if there were any problems flying into it.

The charts show the possibility of snowfall on friday into late saturday.....

A North Easterly wind will possibly be blowing snow showers into Eastern parts of Scotland but Western parts may catch some of these as well if the wind is strong enough. Some central and Western parts have done quite well in past events when there has been Easterly winds.

Going by the latest output, the best prospects lie between thursday and late saturday for snow. It's difficult to say if there will be problems with your flight. In my opinion I think you'll be ok as Glasgow Airport is a little bit sheltered from an Easterly wind due to its Western proximity.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Sawel

[NorthernRab]

Just had heavy snow in Inverness for about 20 minutes, which dropped some tiny sheets of very sparkly ice - everything is glittering like mad! -5'C at the moment, very cold for snowfall.

Looking at the radar and we could get some very heavy snow in about 20 minutes, here's hoping

Edited December 29, 2009 by NorthernRab

[Highland Snow]

Thanks Polarlow, I stay near the Law so I imagine conditions are fairly similar there. Can't believe how long we've had snow on the ground now....

Morning Sawel, Radio Scotland Weather just said heavy and frequent snow showers affecting the East of the country tonight spreading to Western areas in the strong Easterly winds.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Highland Snow

[Sunny Leith]

Edinburgh airport now already a balmy 0c and has been this last 2 hours. Wind onshore from between E and NE. Here in Leith, yesterdays immovable hoare-frost on cars and roofs is steadily disappearing. Other Scottish reporting stations to the south of here also all flirting withe the 0 mark.

Sky is cloudy but nothing convective in sight. The estuary seems to mark the currrent boundary between yesterdays absolutely freezing surface air ... and this arriving modified maritime air.

Interesting to see to what extent this air now makes its way up and into ... all points west and north of here, as FifeNess/Leuchars are still reporting -7c as I write. Fife will be next in line I'd imagine, certainly at the coast.

I'd speculate its possible that we could hit our warmest day here today in Edinburgh ... maybe 3 or 4c if the onshore flow aggressively sources air from the north sea itself (seen that happen before so its possible).

Saving grace is that dew poitnts are still at -5c at time of writing and any grass surface is itself very cold so would be surprised to see too much melting, Could be a marginal day or so coming up though.

Edited December 29, 2009 by by-tor

[Highland Snow]

Met Office Warning for Moray Coast from Inverness to Elgin - 2 hours snowfall giving 5 - 10cm.

[Methuselah]

Met Office Warning for Moray Coast from Inverness to Elgin - 2 hours snowfall giving 5 - 10cm.

Just heard that on the radio, mate. So here's hoping!