Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 9

[Cheggers]

You are entitled to post that in the model thread, just like anyone else is - it's a very valid point and may get a few replies

After playing catch up today in the model thread I doubt it! We are to far north of Watford for it to matter!

-4.9 here top temperature today was -3.2

[Methuselah]

You are entitled to post that in the model thread, just like anyone else is - it's a very valid point and may get a few replies

Quite true, Monds...But our snow is our snow???

[Zerouali lives]

Aviemore now down to -13.6° - that's a drop of 3.4° in the last 2 hours!

-20° anyone?

Snow now at Grantown http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx

[LomondSnowstorm]

You are entitled to post that in the model thread, just like anyone else is - it's a very valid point and may get a few replies

I posted it on the thread - lets see how many replies it gets! Showers even beginning to pep up by tomorrow afternoon, according to the NMM -

[Hiya]

Still baffled by the lack of significance given to the snow potential tomorrow night onwards for here - where is the major snow potential in this chart - Central Scotland or the M4 corridor?

You just posted that chart cause the best snow is practically over your house

18 mm of precipitation forecast for Cupar on Wednesday, that would top things up just nicely.

Picture taken from East Lomond looking towards the Ochils.

Excuse me for cutting my head off but I had a daft face on that isn't for public viewing!

Hard to judge snow depth on a slope but I'd say level snow of about 38 cm / 15" Max snow depth was approx. 1 m / 3 ft

[Snooz]

Are we really entering an "astounding" and "incredible" spell of weather?

Quote: http://forum.netweat...ost__p__1677049

Is this excitement merited, guys? Haven't we had some "astounding" and "incredible" wx already or is there so much more to come? I take everything with a pinch of grit on the model threads, but when you see this and other quotes, you begin to wonder if it's gonna be historical weather in years to come????

hmm I had to unblock that one to read it think that says it all, mods going to busy again tonight keeping the "southern" euphoria out of the model thread.

We are already well and truly into this weather spell, and yes I think it's going to mentioned for years to come, but for lots of different reasons (another ice day here!). I do however think that particular type of euphoria in that quoted post might just be counting their chickens too early as some of the more sensible forecasters have tried to point out today.

Source My Bold

For our (BBC) part, we've elected (rightly, I think most would agree) to highlight the snow potential for these marginal arreas rather than downplay it, because history amply demonstrates to us how the backlash of forecasting rain but not correctly forecasting disruptive snow is massive and potentially deadly; conversely, forecasting rain that never becomes promised snow largely bothers / upsets schoolkids, skiers and varied snow aficianados, but is otherwise speedily forgotten (and often a major relief for travellers).

Still baffled by the lack of significance given to the snow potential tomorrow night onwards for here - where is the major snow potential in this chart - Central Scotland or the M4 corridor?

Just another case of the highly populated, newsworthy area V's the other??

[Mondy]

Put those pix in the model thread Hiya

Thanks for posting - now I know just how deep it is up there when I open my curtains and look at the Ochils :-)

[Northernlights]

Steady snowfall here now very small flakes and currently -4c .It came off the Firth very quickly about an hour ago making it dark very quickly after a fine sunny winters day.

Update, now moderate snowfall covering up any tracks in the old snow,9th day of significant snowcover being added to again. something has really changed with our weather patterns. Neeps are frozen but are a high dry matter variety which should survive down to -40c according to my seed supplier and both cattle and sheep are eating everything I put in front of them. Very early to be feeding hay to the sheep in the fields but they cannot access the remaining grass through the frozen snow. Put lots of new expensive frostguard heaters(looks like money well spent now) everywhere after last New Years cold and in time for February 09 cold. One at the well pump is the most important and must be on costantly now, dread to think what the electric bill will be in March. We are 100m above sea level between Nairn and Forres looking north over the Moray Firth.

[thejailender]

The snow has stopped here now, with the ground being so cold it took no time at all to settle on the path and top of cars etc, the roads and pavements are well gritted though, so nothing settled there.

I think we'd be lucky to say we had 1cm though.

Temperatures rose by a few degrees when the snow came over, but have dropped away again, back to -2'C again

[LomondSnowstorm]

You just posted that chart cause the best snow is practically over your house

18 mm of precipitation forecast for Cupar on Wednesday, that would top things up just nicely.

Picture taken from East Lomond looking towards the Ochils.

Excuse me for cutting my head off but I had a daft face on that isn't for public viewing!

Hard to judge snow depth on a slope but I'd say level snow of about 38 cm / 15" Max snow depth was approx. 1 m / 3 ft

To be fair, I tried to find a chart with precipitation right across the central belt but also with the heaviest snow over my house!

I could imagine snow being that depth in Lomonds - if we'd had no snow melt then I reckon accumulations here wouldn't be far off. Still very confident about those easterly showers, despite the Met Office downplaying it. If it all falls as snow, then many parts are likely to end up with over 15cm of snow by Thursday. Dan Corbett talking about 'having to get those parkas out.' I wasn't aware we ever had them off. Not only that, even though the map shows the snow showers packing in to southeastern Scotland, he talks about it being dry in the 'north', not to mention ignoring the flash warning for snow in northeastern Scotland. The Met Office forecasts are losing credibility across Scotland and I doubt their performance this week will aid them regain any of it.

[blitzen]

Temp here has gone up nearly 1 degree in the last half hour. Now sitting at -2.1. Can no longer see the moon but there is nothing on the radar. Are we making cloud?

Edited December 28, 2009 by Blitzen

[Mondy]

Temp here has gone up nearly 1 degree in the last half hour. Now sitting at 2.1. Can no longer see the moon but there is nothing on the radar. Are we making cloud?

Dunno what it is either. It's gone up from -5.6 to -3.0 within 90 mins. Cloud is about, but still mostly clear. It could be sun down clouds coming off the local hills which may disppear soon.

I see the Meto have added to their flash alerts: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html#flash

[Hiya]

I have a sneeking suspcion that cloud cover might spoil the -20C tonight. My self set bench mark of around -14C by 1600 has been reached so I'll be excited to see how long we go.

Put those pix in the model thread Hiya

Thanks for posting - now I know just how deep it is up there when I open my curtains and look at the Ochils :-)

There would be venom flying...

"Here is the snow today, looks good for copping another 2 ft by the end of the working week."

[Zerouali lives]

Just seen the latest BBC forecast and they have 5° for Aberdeen on Wednesday with a strong to gale easterly.

If this is true, we can expect a widespread thaw over many low lying areas. I don't think it will be that warm though.

[JRMcLeod]

Snow has started falling in Peterhead and settling quickly!! Fingers crossed for an Aberdeen Event!!!

Just seen the latest BBC forecast and they have 5° for Aberdeen on Wednesday with a strong to gale easterly.

If this is true, we can expect a widespread thaw over many low lying areas. I don't think it will be that warm though.

I have honestly lost every bit of faith in the BBC, i have even started telling people to ignore the BBC and look at ITV instead...how bad is that??

[Zerouali lives]

Snow has started falling in Peterhead and settling quickly!! Fingers crossed for an Aberdeen Event!!!

Yeah, I'm expecting it here around 7pm - I don't we'll have anything more than a slight covering but we will see!

[shuggee]

Well a gale off a sea that's at 7 or 8ºC it seems plausible that the coast will be quite a bit above freezing?

[Zerouali lives]

Snow has started falling in Peterhead and settling quickly!! Fingers crossed for an Aberdeen Event!!! :lol:

I have honestly lost every bit of faith in the BBC, i have even started telling people to ignore the BBC and look at ITV instead...how bad is that??

That's pretty bad like! North Sea influence has had a really bad affect on Aberdeen's weather since last Wednesday.

5° in a strong wind off the sea will be like a blow torch - dripping roofs mania!

[JRMcLeod]

where is the easterlie originating?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well a gale off a sea that's at 7 or 8ºC it seems plausible that the coast will be quite a bit above freezing?

Possibly, but SSTs were higher on the 17th with fairly strong winds, and temperatures here barely got above 1C.

[JRMcLeod]

That's pretty bad like! North Sea influence has had a really bad affect on Aberdeen's weather since last Wednesday.

5° in a strong wind off the sea will be like a blow torch - dripping roofs mania!

Well lets hope the dripping roofs starts at about 2-3pm, then the wind dies down and the temps drop and give us monster icicles!!

[shuggee]

In my experience in Edinburgh with easterlies, you need -7ºC uppers for anything white to fall from the sky and to stick.

[JRMcLeod]

another quick question, but can we expect the north sea to drop away further in temp? if so what can we expect?

Edited December 28, 2009 by yeahbabyyeah

[Zerouali lives]

where is the easterlie originating?

Well I think that's the probem - as Shuggee says, the SST's are around 7° and the wind doesn't have a cold origin.

The good news however, is that the wind then begins to back more north-easterly from a more Polar origin so the thaw should only be temporay before we see more flurries in time for Hognamay.

In my experience in Edinburgh with easterlies, you need -7ºC uppers for anything white to fall from the sky and to stick.

So we would need upper of around -8 / -9 in Aberdeen since we are not so conducive to snowfall from the east as Edinburgh is.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Zerouali lives

[Snooz]

Well I think that's the probem - as Shuggee says, the SST's are around 7° and the wind doesn't have a cold origin.

The good news however, is that the wind then begins to back more north-easterly from a more Polar origin so the thaw should only be temporay before we see more flurries in time for Hognamay.

So we would need upper of around -8 / -9 in Aberdeen since we are not so conducive to snowfall from the east as Edinburgh is.

Zero, I think the source is (or might be +48) polar/cold? and from what I can make out the uppers should be about -7 to -8

anyway this chart paints a slightly different picture to what that forecast said - thoughts?

Edited December 28, 2009 by Snooz