Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[welshwizard]

Just depends if the wind pushes the front a bit further South i guess. I dont know if that would ever happen in this time frame.

HI All my first post on here been reading for a while but decided to give it a go, i think the temp is a little to high for snow right now, just hope it drops quite a bit over night,as tomor the temp will probs be around 5 to 6 here in ogmore vale.

but kids are hoping for some nice deep snow. what time is it supposed to be hitting out area?

and great site by the way.

[liamcymro]

Not leaving North Wales out - by tomorrow afternoon we cloud also see large amount of Snow - Snowdonia Met Office Forecast - A cloudy, cold and windy start with some outbreaks of sleet and snow. Sleet and snow likely to become heavier and persistent at times through the day with significant accumulations expected, especially over higher ground.

[welshwizard]

HI All my first post on here been reading for a while but decided to give it a go, i think the temp is a little to high for snow right now, just hope it drops quite a bit over night,as tomor the temp will probs be around 5 to 6 here in ogmore vale.

but kids are hoping for some nice deep snow. what time is it supposed to be hitting out area?

and great site by the way.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Haha Adam I actually forgot about that :lol:

I really would love you guys to get a dumping, I just think it's so up in the air at the moment that it's very difficult to say.

Jay... The reason I think Cardiff may be a rain/sleet mix is because the milder air is very very close. Devon and Cornwall tomorrow will see max temps of between 6-11c according to the BBC forecast and also the UKMO model indicates that too..

temps of 3-5c looks very close to the Cardiff area while 10 miles or so further North and you are heading into colder air and hopefully deep snow :lol: That isn't to say Cardiff won't see deep snow, I don't actually really know myself lol. It is just what I am predicting from what I have seen.

Will being 73m above sea level help... i'm on a slight hill.

[andy_leics22]

Will being 73m above sea level help... i'm on a slight hill.

Hmmm possibly, I think Cardiff city centre won't see settling snow tomorrow unless there is heavy PPN which drops the temperature and turns it into big fat snowflakes then it might but I think the chances of that are about 20%.

5-10 miles North of Cardiff city centre though and I think the snow chances are increased greatly.

[Marcus_surfer]

Brecon Beacons forecast here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/brecon/brecon_latest_pressure.html

I will be taking a trip to see the snow on Friday/Saturday!

[CLH the red dragon]

Will being 73m above sea level help... i'm on a slight hill.

Yes. And Cardiff is under the 3 NOT the 5. Pontrpennau, Thornhill and Caerphilly Mountain tend to do better than the 'Diff as a whole. It's touch and go. But it MUST be a wintry mix one would imagine at the least?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hmmm possibly, I think Cardiff city centre won't see settling snow tomorrow unless there is heavy PPN which drops the temperature and turns it into big fat snowflakes then it might but I think the chances of that are about 20%.

5-10 miles North of Cardiff city centre though and I think the snow chances are increased greatly.

Yep i'm sort of on the outskirts of Cardiff.

Yes. And Cardiff is under the 3 NOT the 5. Pontrpennau, Thornhill and Caerphilly Mountain tend to do better than the 'Diff as a whole. It's touch and go. But it MUST be a wintry mix one would imagine at the least?

I'm around the corner from Pontprennau, i'm in Pentwyn.

[bennytes]

this time tomorrow, there'll be no more doubt about it.

'throw another polar bear on the barbie mate!'

rampiau!

[keithlucky]

HI All my first post on here been reading for a while but decided to give it a go, i think the temp is a little to high for snow right now, just hope it drops quite a bit over night,as tomor the temp will probs be around 5 to 6 here in ogmore vale.

but kids are hoping for some nice deep snow. what time is it supposed to be hitting out area?

and great site by the way.

After midnight heavy stuff around dawn.

[J10]

Jack one the gfs got the Lp further do you think it improves our chances of snow ?

The model I am looking at for the moment is the NAE model. That is further south, as a result, IMO most parts of South Wales will see some snow, maybe even on the coast. Settling snow is a very different issue, but for those in the Eastern South Wales Valleys as well as Merthyr could do very well out of this. At this moment for southern areas, the trend is our friend.

From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_weather.html

GFS 12z @ 18h: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png

NAE @ 18h: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2009/12/28/basis12/ukuk/pslv/09122906_2812.gif

Looks like a slight shift southward of that low to me- anyone else think so?

Yes

[DeepSnow]

Yep agree I don't think its set in stone for us, only if we were a little further north. But hey you never know, lets be positive and lets get some great snow.

What time is it due, do you know?

I think it is due around midnight, not fully sure on that though. Not so good at the moment as temp is back up at 3.3C and dewpoint at 3.2C. I really hope it drops, i am no good at the forecasting or chart reading either but i actually think it will start of as sleet rain here first unless these temps drop intime for the front.

[Marcus_surfer]

When is the first precipitation due to arrive on the Southern Coast?

[J10]

Temperature is far too high here for snow, and with cloudcover here already, temperatures won't fall much now

2c here at the moment, temps are set to fall later, time of course will tell.

Could be thunder snow tonight - what do you think Jackone?

Not an expert on thunder snow. Indeed not an expert on snow.

[pyrotech]

Big + It seems to b turning to sleet and snow over Irish republic, we need same now as band heads north over Cornwall and Devon

[Jamie.]

1.3C here.

Didn't realise the rain/sleet/snow was arriving Tonight. Thought it was Tues night.

[Wales123098]

Yep i'm sort of on the outskirts of Cardiff.

I'm around the corner from Pontprennau, i'm in Pentwyn.

I ve lived in this area before and my parents still work in the Llanishen area snow is far more likely in the northern suburbs such as Thornhill and Pontprennau than anywhere else in the city except from Pentyrch, Creigau and Tongwynlais which have far greater chances again due to ruralness and alltitude and how far inland it is. I have to travel down Pentyrch hill to get into Cardiff and all those lanes up there in the north of the City/Rhondda Cynon Taff boundary and these areas get very bad in snowy weather as altitude is around 170meters in places in Pentyrch village. I live in the CF15 postcode area just to the north of Pentyrch and east of Llantrisant. I think Jays chances are far greater than most areas of Cardiff personaly his altitude isnt too bad my only concern is that hes only about 5-6miles inland.

One other thing from personal expierence I have found that areas south of the M4 in Cardiff seem to see just sleet on many snow events Ive had and soon as you travel north of the M4 on the A470 it always seems to start snowing in the Tongwynlais area. I hope this isnt the case this time though.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Wales123098

[Jackfrost]

I'm expecting settling snow here and in rest of the central and upper valleys, but it's unclear to me whether the PPN is likely to remain as snow between tonight and Thursday, or if it's likely to alternate between rain and snow. It doesn't help that the radio just announced that rain is likely south of Abercynon, barely a mile from here, though that forecast doesn't sound right at all.

Edited December 28, 2009 by jackfrost

[derrylynne]

I'm expecting snow for the central and upper valleys, but it's unclear to me whether the PPN is likely to remain as snow between tonight and Thursday, or if it's likely to alternate between rain and snow. It doesn't help that the radio just announced that rain is likely south of Abercynon, barely a mile from here, though that forecast doesn't sound right at all.

I notice the temperature and dew point are rising at the moment. An indication it will be rain not snow.....Showers are breaking out in various parts now and so far they appear to be rain. Although to be honest I would rather rain than a foot of snow....

Edited December 28, 2009 by derrylynne

[Jackfrost]

I notice the temperature and dew point are rising at the moment. An indication it will be rain not snow.....Showers are breaking out in various parts now and so far they appear to be rain. Although to be honest I would rather rain than a foot of snow....

I'm pretty sure it'll snow up here, don't worry about that. Temperatures may drop off as the evening goes on and this combined with the intensity of PPN should lower temperatures. Whether it stays as snow is another story.

Edited December 28, 2009 by jackfrost

[Wales123098]

I notice the temperature and dew point are rising at the moment. An indication it will be rain not snow.....Showers are breaking out in various parts now and so far they appear to be rain. Although to be honest I would rather rain than a foot of snow....

Showers on rain today show them being rain/snow. These are very light, the heavy precip will probs produce snow over the S.Wales valleys. Im sorry to people in Cardiff but this is looking like M4 northwards event its very marginal here with a rising temperture of 0.9c here now.

[CardiffStorm]

Well Im off to the public house now. Hope everyone gets the snow they want and enjoy lampost watching tonight - I know I will be.

[peterf]

i hope yas all got the sheep in :lol:

[Wales123098]

i hope yas all got the sheep in :lol:

Thats quiet a racist comment?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Showers on rain today show them being rain/snow. These are very light, the heavy precip will probs produce snow over the S.Wales valleys. Im sorry to people in Cardiff but this is looking like M4 northwards event its very marginal here with a rising temperture of 0.9c here now.

I'm around the corner from the M4 i think i have a chance lol.