Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[Cymro]

Hi Guys,

Bad news i am afraid - on the general model discussion - Steve Murr, has stated that this is only a north wales etc event northwards - we in the mid and south are going to get rain from the latest updates.

This is not something we want to hear and he also states we are going to have to wait until friday and even then, only if this low goes towards the south east later in the week.

This is not good news and not what I wanted to hear. Hope for another change later but this low is now nearly upon us and our only chance is if it stalls and gets little northward progression. Heres hoping!

JK

He is a mild ramper and biased because his location isn't in the firing line!. He is probably going only by the GFS.

[Jayfromcardiff]

He is a mild ramper and biased because his location isn't in the firing line!. He is probably going only by the GFS.

Lol, and even he himself i bet couldn't predict the outcome.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

UKMO places the low further north : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm241.gif

Keep an eye out for the updated Metoffice advisories

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

You reckon he is a mildy - I won't do any quotes children, just a straight post.

Steve is a very experienced and well respected forecaster - I am sure Jackone will back me up on this.

He is trying to give an informed opinionand he uses ALL the models and is NOT a mild ramper. You might like to heed people like this even if they do not show what you want.

Guys, this looks as though we are going to lose out on the marginality of it all, I hope not, but I am sure at this moment, the charts are showing a northerly bias for snow only. Before you have a pop at me, I am a cold lover - I hate mild.

JK

[Simon SWales]

He is a mild ramper and biased because his location isn't in the firing line!. He is probably going only by the GFS.

Adam, Steve Murr is not a mild ramper, he calls it as he sees it and his posts are the first I look for. Still game on in my eyes, especially as i'm in Brynmawr tonight at 360m asl

[CRACKPOT]

Adam, Steve Murr is not a mild ramper, he calls it as he sees it and his posts are the first I look for. Still game on in my eyes, especially as i'm in Brynmawr tonight at 360m asl

Hi Simon,

I think your elevation will do great from this in Brynmawr - I think,in my experience, 1000ft is the marker where the snow will fall down here - I just miss out around 850ft !

JK

[J10]

Hi Guys,

Bad news i am afraid - on the general model discussion - Steve Murr, has stated that this is only a north wales etc event northwards - we in the mid and south are going to get rain from the latest updates.

This is not something we want to hear and he also states we are going to have to wait until friday and even then, only if this low goes towards the south east later in the week.

This is not good news and not what I wanted to hear. Hope for another change later but this low is now nearly upon us and our only chance is if it stalls and gets little northward progression. Heres hoping!

JK

That's not what the high resolution Met Office Snow Forecast is going for, so while a foot of snow seems unlikely for much of South Wales, some snow cannot be out, especially for the Valleys to the South East.

[Cymro]

Ok maybe he isn't a mild ramper but iF forecasters who are payed or their job are having difficulty i fail to see how Steve Murr can do any better seems to me he's going by worse case scenario so then nobody is dissapointed.

[bennytes]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

if you look at the rain radar for the UK, and run it from the beginning at 0430, you can see the precipitation, trying to get in, then being pushed right back.

i have a feeling something special might be brewing here.

[J10]

UKMO places the low further north : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm241.gif

Keep an eye out for the updated Metoffice advisories

True but the NAE places the low further south than last night, a complete role reversal.

[Cymro]

Warnings have been updated pretty much what i Ecpected. the valleys and Powys in the orange the rest of wales still yellow , very small area in orange atm.

[J10]

Hi Guys,

You reckon he is a mildy - I won't do any quotes children, just a straight post.

Steve is a very experienced and well respected forecaster - I am sure Jackone will back me up on this.

He is trying to give an informed opinionand he uses ALL the models and is NOT a mild ramper. You might like to heed people like this even if they do not show what you want.

Guys, this looks as though we are going to lose out on the marginality of it all, I hope not, but I am sure at this moment, the charts are showing a northerly bias for snow only. Before you have a pop at me, I am a cold lover - I hate mild.

JK

Steve Murr is a respected forecaster, however he does occasionally tend to over react to model output, he does say it as he sees it, but isn't always right, but then again who is.

[andymusic]

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

still looking like the meto believe we'll get hit! - with less than 24hrs to go

Edited December 28, 2009 by andymusic

[Snowyowl9]

This new parrallel GFS seems to be overdoing min temps at night during this cold spell,and BBC are on the mark,GFS showed -1c which would be right for here old GFS,got down to -2.5c instead.

Latest fax chart for tomorrow 6am,further south to GFS.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

[pyrotech]

Ok a quick update

firstly a update from Met office.

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of Wales and central England. Periods of sleet and snow will spread from the south during Tuesday and are likely to persist well into Wednesday. The snow will be heavy at times with drifting likely in strong easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions over hills.

10-15cm of snow is likely widely with 25cm or more possible over high ground of Wales.

Disruption to transport and power supplies is likely.

This is for a far South as RCT and Caerphilly.

Now the fax charts

The 36hr chart for 12z tomorrow does have the low slightly further North than the 48hr chart for same time, BUT it also has it slightly further

east too so more chance of the cold air meeting it. Looks for alot of Midwales and South east wales that it could be very snowy indeed.

[J10]

Warnings have been updated pretty much what i Ecpected. the valleys and Powys in the orange the rest of wales still yellow , very small area in orange atm.

That seems a fair update to me, those areas are certainly in the firing line, and this tends to agree with the NAE model.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&WMO=&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=200912280000%26HH%3D42

Also liking the T+60 and T+72 Fax Charts

[Snowyowl9]

Ok a quick update

Drifting likely in strong easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions over hills.

That is what I`ve been waiting to see all these years with cold air winning out at the end.

The winds do look very strong as with snow it makes it all the more stronger with drifting/blizzards.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The NAE Upper temps @ 24h:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2009/12/28/basis06/ukuk/t850/09122906_2806.gif

And the GFS @ 24h:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs242.gif

The NAE has the low further South, however both have simular upper temps

Fax chart @ 24h: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

This is a nightmare to forecast....Metoffice warnings going for Mid and SE Wales (Heavy snow)

I do notice the upper air temps (850hpa) do increase for South Wales as we go through tuesday but not by huge amounts- so at elevation with heavy PPN perhaps more in the way of Snow.

[J10]

The NAE Upper temps @ 24h:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2009/12/28/basis06/ukuk/t850/09122906_2806.gif

And the GFS @ 24h:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs242.gif

The NAE has the low further South, however both have simular upper temps

Fax chart @ 24h: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

This is a nightmare to forecast....Metoffice warnings going for Mid and SE Wales (Heavy snow)

I do notice the upper air temps (850hpa) do increase for South Wales as we go through tuesday but not by huge amounts- so at elevation with heavy PPN perhaps more in the way of Snow.

The GFS does get milder after that though. This event could still end up 50 miles further north or south, which could mean snow for South Wales or nothing at tall. The current Meto warnings, there is still the risk of snow anywhere, but this is greater for the areas highlighted.

I wouldn''t be surprised if most saw some snow (maybe a wintry mix), but settling reserved for higher ground in South Wales and more generally across Mid Wales.

[worldairgroup]

Come on god, bring it on!!! We are ready for it!!!

[CLH the red dragon]

An awful lot of last night's frost has persisted. Air temps still distinctly chilly.

[Marcus_surfer]

I have a feeling i wont see any snow here at all now

[keithlucky]

Nice frosty and sunny start, first thing I did this morning was to watch the BBC forecast, andthey sno to low ground in Wales.

BBC Ceefax Maps showed Snow on hills for Wales tonight, with 3 summary showing Snow for South Wales.

Glad I did that as it really clears it up. Looking at the models UKMO further north than yesterday, NAE 00Hz further south than the 18Hz with the lows staying in the channel, There is so little model agreement as to make this a forecasters nightmare.

Nae further sounds better jack one if thats correct suits us fine.

[J10]

I have a feeling i wont see any snow here at all now

Quite possible, although a wintry mix/some snow falling is more than possible, settling snow is less likely.

[DeepSnow]

I have a feeling i wont see any snow here at all now

I have the same feeling, hope im wrong though!