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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Is there a chair I can talk to? have you read any of the posts made by more coherent people? Stats matter across all walks of life as thats basically the only measure that people can't argue over as long as their properly verified! i've put the stats up countless times regarding the models. There is no other way of judging the models that we have access to, all that would happen is a load of spurious arguments not based on fact. Now for the last time the ECM is the most reliable global weather model, this is a FACT! :closedeyes:

I do agree with what your saying Nick but with meto probably slightly better at very short range but that being more to do with local topography ie Streamers sst convection etc. Regarding the GFS it has its moments with trends in Fi but seems to lose it again nearer the verrification period.

The ECM is shown as most reliable that can not be argued with, however i think what some are saying is that it does not mean that it will be right this time and it could be the time where it hits some of its infrequent off runs.

Edited by pyrotech
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Colchester Essex
  • Location: Nr Colchester Essex

Yes Nick - some of us are listening, but we are already believers. Those that are seeing what they want to see, aren't listening to the facts.

Also it is forgotten that the models are only possibilities, and the closer that they get to Oz do they become probabilities. No model contains every one of the billions of pieces of data, no model has the correct weighting and programming, the only thing that can really give one a clue as to the model that has outputs closest to reality is to look at the verification stats.

It's easy to look at the little squares of model maps and to think that what you see develops in isolation from other things, whereas in fact the developments are a consequence of changes all over the globe, from the very largest scale of general fluid dynamics, to the micro scale of mountain torques and if chaos theory is to be believed butterfly wings.

The stats on verification are the only true clue to the model that maps most accurately to reality in the recent time frame. Faith, desire, belief have nothing to with it.

Of course the main models are only a small set of probable outcomes. Everything is subject to change.

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)

its not who is the best, but what is going to happen with this low in the coming few days. LP to far north. Warnings have now been reduced to possible advisories for north west england infact its quite a big back track there by the meto office.

This is off topic for this thread but you are totally wrong there. Currently there are warnings for Heavy Snow for the following areas:

Early Warning:

Blaenau Gwent

Caerphilly

Merthyr Tydfil

Monmouthshire

Powys

Rhondda Cynon Taff

Torfaen

Herefordshire

Shropshire

And advisories for:

The whole of the rest of Wales, plus

Derby

Derbyshire

Leicester

Leicestershire

Northants

Nottingham

Notts

Rutland

Bedfordshire

Luton

S Yorks

W Yorks

Blackburn

Blackpool

CHeshire

Gtr Manchester

Halton

Lancs

Merseyside

Warrington

Staffs

Stoke

Telford

W Midlands

Warwickshire

Worcs

Shropshire

Bucks

Oxfordshire

Milton Keynes

Bath & NE Somerset

Bristol

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

S Gloucestershire

Edited by Rob K
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

and to me its also a fact they are wrong now, like they where wrong at the start of the cold spell but time will tell i suppose with this. wow you are confrontational. We are talking about what's going to happen with this current setup not what the stats are. I have never once said that the ECM wasnt the bee's knees. All I care about is where this low will end up and whether we get either snow or rain. As for the stats they can change over time..just because they are the global model to use now, doesn't make them absolutely right absolutely every time but thats not what you where saying anyways as for coherent..personally I think that was a bit uncalled for wasn't it?

Let me put this as politely as possible, i do understand its frustrating at this timeframe for the models to still not agree as to events upto 72hrs, unfortunately its a complicated set up with a fine balancing act between a strengthening Greenland high and low pressure coming in from the sw. Even on the day it will be impossible to pinpoint the exact northern and southern boundaries of the snow, there will still be a margin for error of around 50 miles.

In terms of confrontational and uncalled for i was being as restrained as possible as i didn't really want to get banned! If you re-read the posts you have made you will have to agree the one about the weather warning was factually incorrect and the first one appeared just after i had made yet another post regarding the models reliability. I suggest we move on and get back to the model discussion.

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