Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->

[Snowstorm1]

Very much agree Tamara.

For me personally I just think the models are doing their usual thing. At first it was going to be N,lys via the GH and now we have a near miss E,ly. I bet in a few days something else might be on the menu and this could be the E,ly actually reaching us for the reasons you gave.

Im just going to keep an open mind and see what happens. However the overall trend is towards cold especially due to the strongly negative NAO/AO.

has anyone looked at the meto faxes i advise look now If im wrong i apoligize as im still very much learning with these faxes

Edited December 26, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[keithlucky]

has anyone looked at the meto faxes i advise look now :lol:

Met faxes show a easterley how cold i dont know?

[TEITS]

For this, read better for the SE/E Anglia rather than for those wanting a proper snow event.

Nothing to do with E Anglia/SE as I would say the same if I lived at the very top of a welsh mountain!

Its very simple really if the LP tracks further S then the UK has a better chance of seeing a prolonged cold spell. Further N and you run the risk of a brief snow event followed by a possible spell of mild S/SW,lys.

[bluearmy]

who said the p/v wasnt likely to become the dominant player?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

another reason to question the 18z fi evolution

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

96 HOUR FAx shows a rain fest for most.

:lol:

[Cloud 10]

has anyone looked at the meto faxes i advise look now :lol:

gfs fax

The 96hrs fax looks very close to the 18z gfs.

[cold snap]

who said the p/v wasnt likely to become the dominant player?

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=1

another reason to question the 18z fi evolution

Liking this greenland coming into shot again.

Just like to remind me people that a snow event even shown on 18z is still on the cards,

[nick sussex]

For this, read better for the SE/E Anglia rather than for those wanting a proper snow event.

Why do battle lines have to be drawn in this way Ian! Dave has said all evening he wants the low further south to increase the chance of a longer cold spell so why do you keep baiting like this, to be honest i'm getting a bit sick of the NIMBYISM in this thread at the moment.

Everyone on this thread wants a cold spell with some snow, everyone is on the same side here so why do we have to have these warring factions! To be honest it might be Xmas but alot of people seem to have forgotten this, now for the last time can everyone just get along, be nice to each other and cut out the bickering!

To be honest if people continue in this vein i may just not bother posting for a while until some festive spirit returns!

Edited December 26, 2009 by nick sussex

[Snowstorm1]

96 HOUR FAx shows a rain fest for most.

Sorry if i got peoples hopes up but im still learning with these faxes! :lol:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

For this, read better for the SE/E Anglia rather than for those wanting a proper snow event.

I think within the context of the outlook, then it matters whether we see a snow event that is transitional to less cold weather again - or whether we see an evolution back to a widespread cold pattern courtesy of the -AO and blocking which foresakes a snow to sleet to rain (or just simply snow to thaw within 24 to 36 hrs) extravaganza and means that something much less marginal can occur. Previously to the start of this month you would have agreed that the Uk has seen plenty of marginal short term snowfalls that have melted soon after as transitional events (as has often been the case due to our temperate position on the globe) but we would all like to see a more sustained pattern once again (as sometimes was the case historically) rather than just temporary snowfall gratification.

Have perspectives changed because of some snow cover you have received Ian?

Edited December 26, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Frosty.]

Whether or not the current model data is more flawed than usual, the gfs 18z is still a cold run for much of the uk, especially the northern half with winds from the east or south east and most areas would see at least some snow. I still think there will be major disruptive snowfalls between tues/thurs next week, probably from wales across the midlands to possibly lincolnshire although areas further north and south could also be in the risk zone and snow showers will be feeding into northeastern coastal areas of scotland and then further south as the main front pushes southeast dragging colder air to all areas during the second half of next week. Beyond that is anyones guess, the models don't know yet so how can any of us? looking forward to the 00z for a fresh start tomorrow and hopefully a clearer picture.

[londonsnow]

Why do battle lines have to be drawn in this way Ian! Dave has said all evening he wants the low further south to increase the chance of a longer cold spell so why do you keep baiting like this, to be honest i'm getting a bit sick of the NIMBYISM in this thread at the moment.

Everyone on this thread wants a cold spell with some snow, everyone is on the same side here so why do we have to have these warring factions! To be honest it might be Xmas but alot of people seem to have forgotten this, now for the last time can everyone just get along, be nice to each other and cut out the bickering!

To be honest if people continue in this vein i may just not bother posting for a while until some festive spirit returns!

i tend to agree. sadly the festive season ends in about 55 mins as far as christmas in concerned. i cant make headway of the the charts at the moment, but thomasz's call for blizzards on radio 4 this morning may be refined tomorrow. we shall see

Edited December 26, 2009 by londonsnow

[TEITS]

Looking at the updated +120 fax chart and to be honest it isn't exactly like the ECM but definately doesn't follow the UKMO as the LP is further S. However looking at the ECM +120 and it seems on the fax chart the Greenland HP is ridging further S.

I must confess that my eyes might be playing tricks and I need the likes of Nick S to confirm. However in my opinion the +120 fax chart has been based on the ECM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[pottyprof]

I never suggested they were correct at T+168hrs, I simply said it's hard to put up a viable arguement why they would both be so badly wrong, there is a difference. Also as someone else rightly pointed out we cannot always use the De Bilt ensembles as a guide to UK conditions, in certain situations Holland can remain bitterly cold while the UK sees near or even above average temps away from the SE.

I think the next 24hrs will answer a lot more questions as to where we go across the New Year holiday, but I'm not convinced we are where we are right now because of reduced data inputs or general model deficiencies - however time will tell.

Oh yes the next 24 hrs will show a better picture... although tomorrows models will still need a better 24 hrs or maybe the models 24 hrs after that..... They are models.. Surprising enough, they don't actually control the weather... So it makes no difference what you want... it will do what it wants on the day.

Great innit?? :lol:

[cold snap]

Looking at the updated +120 fax chart and to be honest it isn't exactly like the ECM but definately doesn't follow the UKMO as the LP is further S. However looking at the ECM +120 and it seems on the fax chart the Greenland HP is ridging further S.

I must confess that my eyes might be playing tricks and I need the likes of Nick S to confirm. However in my opinion the +120 fax chart has been based on the ECM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Mate ive think we have all look at to many frames tonight my eyes are killing me.

Hard work this model buisness

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking at the latest 96 and 120hr fax charts I think the word blizzard is more likely to be replaced by another 8 letter word... flooding! Some snow does look possible for high ground as the rainband edges slowly south during Thursday, but unless things change overnight there will be a difFerent emphasis to tomorrows output IMO.

im finding the bbc forecasts quite bizzarre to be honest.

They dont reflect their model,and they dont reflect gfs,not sure ecm shows bliazzards either.

Very puzzling.

[Matt12]

Looking at the latest 96 and 120hr fax charts I think the word blizzard is more likely to be replaced by another 8 letter word... flooding! Some proper snow does look likely for high ground in particular as the rainband edges slowly south during Thursday, but unless things change overnight there will be a different emphasis to tomorrows output IMO.

Not what the latest BBC weather report was saying. I think that some places will definitely see snow, it's just a case of how many and how long the cold spell lasts (and its severity).

[chapmanslade]

Everyone on this thread wants a cold spell with some snow, everyone is on the same side here

Erm are you not missing the point also ? I personally don't want a snow fest as I work outside and my income would be affected. I read and post on the model thread in order to work out what the weather is going to do next. It matters nought what the end result is as long as the models / predictions are accurate.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the updated +120 fax chart and to be honest it isn't exactly like the ECM but definately doesn't follow the UKMO as the LP is further S. However looking at the ECM +120 and it seems on the fax chart the Greenland HP is ridging further S.

I must confess that my eyes might be playing tricks and I need the likes of Nick S to confirm. However in my opinion the +120 fax chart has been based on the ECM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Hi Dave

I think the duty forecaster has probably as you suggested gone with the ecm ensembles here by shifting the centre of the low further sw, interestingly he or she didn't go for a straight modification to the 120hrs ecm raw output which sometimes happens. It really is a difficult call here with such tiny global margins deciding the snow/rain boundary, on past experience the lows normally end up further south than originally progged,so for this reason and given the ecm ensembles i'd expect a slight southward shift over the next day.

[derrylynne]

There is data missing at the moment because of the Christmas period. Why not wait till the charts come out tomorrow before passing a firm opinion?

Myself I tend to think when the gfs and ecm come out tomorrow they will throw up something completely different to today. Just of course my opinion.

I don't want snow - but if that is what we get we get it - but the bickering is silly - at the end of the day we are only looking at charts and trying to figure out which way the WEATHER is going to effect us.

Looking at everything at the moment my guess is there is going to be more cold than we want by the middle of winter - anyone want to pay my heating bills.

[TEITS]

Because it simply isn't true - unless the Low ends up over Northern Scotland - if the 12z, 18z, GEM, ECM, Fax charts come off, there is no knowing for sure what would happen next with a massive -AO, NAO in play.

I always look at the models from a general perspective, but plenty of others are looking at the sitution from the SE/E Anglia perspective. If any newbies had been reading earlier they would have got the impression that the models were atrocious, just because of this Nimbyism.

Surely Ian if you look at the chart below you can see what would happen if that LP would of tracked further S.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

I shall repeat for the last time this has nothing to do with my location. I have witnessed many short lived snowfalls and would prefer a prolonged cold spell which will benefit all of the UK.

[Matt12]

I have a hunch that there will be a bit of an upgrade tomorrow, with the cold reaching further south and enduring longer into January (say, about the 7th or 8th).

Time just to wait and see.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Dave

I think the duty forecaster has probably as you suggested gone with the ecm ensembles here by shifting the centre of the low further sw, interestingly he or she didn't go for a straight modification to the 120hrs ecm raw output which sometimes happens. It really is a difficult call here with such tiny global margins deciding the snow/rain boundary, on past experience the lows normally end up further south than originally progged,so for this reason and given the ecm ensembles i'd expect a slight southward shift over the next day.

The benefit of the doubt is the best course of action here - those in the real know outside of HQ apparently believe so. Therefore best to defer I think

However, that said, the fax does look very much like the ECM for the second evening in a row. Therefore we seem to be progressing nicely atm towars the next cold spell!

Night all

Edited December 26, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[nick sussex]

Because it simply isn't true - unless the Low ends up over Northern Scotland - if the 12z, 18z, GEM, ECM, Fax charts come off, there is no knowing for sure what would happen next with a massive -AO, NAO in play.

I always look at the models from a general perspective, but plenty of others are looking at the sitution from the SE/E Anglia perspective. If any newbies had been reading earlier they would have got the impression that the models were atrocious, just because of this Nimbyism.

IMO a little insurance is needed, for this reason it's safer for the low to track further south. Bear in mind Ian i have no bias here, i'm not in the UK anymore but still hope that the models will play ball and deliver a decent cold spell. I'm sort of a long suffering UK cold lover by proxy!

[TEITS]

I know and I also agree very much with what happy days said too, it's quite bizarre that they keep trundling out stuff that doesn't appear to tie up with any model.

Lets be fair though and have some more respect for the professionals.

If the BBC are suggesting snow then this is because the Met O have informed them of this. Now if this doesn't follow the ECM/UKMO output then obviously they either have more access to data or they don't agree with the models or probably both.

Lets remember that the models are only a guide. The Met O forecaster does not use a piece of tracing paper and copy the models charts off his screen when preparing the fax charts. :lol:

Personally I think we need to chill out, relax and wait until tomorrow because there is alot of uncertainty at the moment hence why the fax chart does not resemble the UKMO.