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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->

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Fresh thread in time for the 18z.

Please have a read of this announcement before posting:

http://forum.netweat...he-winter-area/

The crux of it being that those who causing problems by posting anti-socially and not respecting the other members of the forum will find themselves stopped from posting until the new year (at least) as the team don't have time during the Xmas/New Year break to deal with issues caused by people who really ought to know better!!!

Back to the models, you can view the latest model runs from the GFS, Ecm, Meto and Ensembles here:

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

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I have to say the ECM ensembles are a relief. I would of been concerned if the control run have followed the operational but this couldn't be more opposite. Infact the ECM control run has some incredibly cold temps.

Could do with a decent 18Z, not because it will be right but to raise the morale on here. Remember the further S the LP goes the better!

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I have to say the ECM ensembles are a relief. I would of been concerned if the control run have followed the operational but this couldn't be more opposite. Infact the ECM control run has some incredibly cold temps.

Could do with a decent 18Z, not because it will be right but to raise the morale on here. Remember the further S the LP goes the better!

Will be interesting to see how the 18z pans out, at the moment, i think the LP may be a little further south on this run.

Not 100% sure as it's only upto t42.

Lewis

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At first look at the 18z which is currently rolling out ,the low appears to have tracked must further south allowing the cold to track further south yahoo.gif

looks the same to me at +48h.

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Actually think the low if further North..

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LP does seem further south on this run than 12z. Chart at T+45

post-10203-12618638930713_thumb.png

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looks identical to the 12z so far. the 528 dam line is in the same place, as is the low pressure. Only early days in the run, could still head south though :drinks:

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A big word of warninbg with regards to the ECM, in this set-up with the low pressure attacking us from the SW then whilst we could be in a southerly airflow they De blit could well be in a cold high set-up...

For example on the 12z GFS op run we have 4C maxes, but in De blit temps are down at -1C at 240hrs...so as you can see its quite possible we get into the milder air whilst places further east just about keep in the colder air.

Anyway will be interesting to see what happens...the models should be watched tomorrow morning as they should have the correct amount of data injested into the models from the Greenland/Arctic region, I dare say that was somewhat reduced yesterday.

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Deffo a little further North,

12Z showed -7 over me on the 12z, now to -5 with the colder air pushed back further North, but this is good for areas around us in regarding snow potential.

post-2644-12618642570813_thumb.png

Lewis

Here is your thickness,

I don't see 1 foot drifts on this run.

post-2644-12618645680713_thumb.png

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50 miles further North or so but as has been said it's been moving South and North 50-100 miles every run. We won't know until the day.

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At first look at the 18z which is currently rolling out ,the low appears to have tracked must further south allowing the cold to track further south :drinks:

looks identical to 12z to me.

Will be interesting to see how the 18z pans out, at the moment, i think the LP may be a little further south on this run.

Not 100% sure as it's only upto t42.

Lewis

looks the same to me at +48h.

I really can't see any evidence of this so far out to T+48, perhaps a tad farther east, but no farther south yet IMO.

Actually think the low if further North..

LP does seem further south on this run than 12z. Chart at T+45

post-10203-12618638930713_thumb.png

Thatlow is further north but its VERY slightly different.

Actually looking like a worse run that the 12z at T+54hrs, with the LP definately farther NE.

looks identical to the 12z so far. the 528 dam line is in the same place, as is the low pressure. Only early days in the run, could still head south though :lol:

Deffo a little further North,

12Z showed -7 over me on the 12z, now to -5 with the colder air pushed back further North, but this is good for areas around us in regarding snow potential.

post-2644-12618642570813_thumb.png

Lewis

How in the heavens is anyone reading this thread meant to make head or tail of this. I would advise to wait a little longer until where the low is actually situated becomes clearer!

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would it not be better to compare this run with last night's 18 rather than just the 12, compare like with like else you will get a false impression

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People should stop taking too much notice of where the low is going after every single run. The past few runs it has gone north, south, south again, well north, south a bit, north a bit etc. etc. It will keep changing until just hours beforehand.

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Comparing the 18Z with the 12Z the low is very slightly further north but the cold air penetrates closer to the depression, so cold/snow wise it is almost identical.

Comparing with other 18Z runs, it's further north than yesterday's 18Z but further south than Christmas Eve's 18Z.

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People should stop taking too much notice of where the low is going after every single run. The past few runs it has gone north, south, south again, well north, south a bit, north a bit etc. etc. It will keep changing until just hours beforehand.

I agree Nick, but if that's the case would they be any point of us actually been here and discussing the models?

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Might be an idea to cut out some of the uneccessary posts about slightly north, good for my area in Wales, Sprunehorpe, Zeebrugge and west Dymchurch, but not for yours in St Petersburg and Ajaccio - and save the one line post for something more objective. Just a thought?

Overall, i think looking at tonights output, as nick s has said to very good effect (and repeatedly for those that refuse to listen) it is worth disregarding output beyond the midweek period. There is way too much uncertainty to go into 'will it snow' detail which a number of of the holiday period weenies are quite clearly doingsmile.gif

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I'm rather worried about just how much precip the GFS is pumping into the south, the 12z gave 40-50mm widely in the south and even more in the SW...and if anything the 18z looks even wetter. Seems like there is a real chance of getting 50-70mm widely if that set-up came off.

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Might be an idea to cut out some of the uneccessary posts about slightly north, good for my area in Wales, Sprunehorpe, Zeebrugge and west Dymchurch, but not for yours in St Petersburg and Ajaccio - and save the one line post for something more objective. Just a thought?

Overall, i think looking at tonights output, as nick s has said to very good effect (and repeatedly for those that refuse to listen) it is worth disregarding output beyond the midweek period. There is way too much uncertainty to go into 'will it snow' detail which a number of of the holiday period weenies are quite clearly doingsmile.gif

LOL. Nice post. Everything past 72hrs is FI at mo.

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I agree Nick, but if that's the case would they be any point of us actually been here and discussing the models?

Valid point. Looking at the general trend of where it is going should be discussed, but analysing every single movement on every single run is going to lead to some members going into stress overload!

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I don't know about anyone else but im literally willing that SW NE of Scotland at +126 to back S around our LP. Simple reason is an incredible E,ly beckons if it does!

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