Cold Spell Discussion

[MAF]

current cold spell news from BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8432437.stm

Heavy snow warning for east Wales and central England

Heavy snowfall has already affected much of the UK<P class=first>An early warning of heavy snow during Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of Wales and central England has been issued. The Met Office said Shropshire and Herefordshire may be affected, while high ground in eastern Wales could see snowfall above 25cm (9.8ins).

Transport and power supplies are likely to face disruption, it added

[HotCuppa]

The ECM precipitation charts bring the precipitation to the North Midlands, UKMO does and so Does the GFS. UKMO and GFS would have it turn to rain for most of us apart apart from north of Yorkshire. The ECM would be an all snow event. I just remain to the North of the heaviest pnp though. So the 5cm to 10cm risk for south Yorkshire and North Mids is just about right if you went with the ECM (which is what the meto seem to agree with)

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

Id like to actually see some more snow in the nw, its been a very barren boring rainy season apart from the 4 inches we had a little while back..that amounts to about 20 years worth of snow in 1 tiny go. Plenty of cold around but with very little in the way of snow for this area..seems like it about the same all over the northern half of the country...possibly a few snow showers here and there, but the cold theme does seem to continue, but the the question is for how long, I just hope we get a decent battering this year. 4inches so far, while the rest of the north have had far more..this coming from the drought area of south nw england.

They had a warning out this morning for the whole of northern england, saw sense and back tracked now its just mid wales and west midlands, all warnings for nothern england changed to 'possible' advisories.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I hope not, because if it is then I'm a hardened criminal. I live at the top of a 1:5 hill on a single track road, there's a grit bin half way up and I regularly take half a shovel full to combat the snow and ice in front of my garage.

Far less wasteful than some of the residents lower down the hill who seem to think rock salt is ineffective unless spread in a carpet an inch deep over the entire road surface.

I've just taken 3 shovel-loads and spread it thinly over the road outside my house, and then sprinkled a bit outside my frontdoor. As the car goes up and down the driveway, it should spread it about a bit and likewise as people walk to my front door to deliver my hate mail. The sound of the ice cracking is bizarre!

I've tried phoning the number on the grit bin to get it re-filled, but I don't think anyone's there today...probably because they can't get to work because of ice.

I do think that after 11 days, they should have gritted the road leading to and from a village more than once.

Id like to actually see some more snow in the nw, its been a very barren boring rainy season apart from the 4 inches we had a little while back.

For your part of the north-west perhaps. Edited December 28, 2009 by Osbourne One-Nil

[MAF]

I always thought the bins of salt/grit were strategically placed around my area so that they couldn't be used. i.e at the top of a hill. or outside a school where the kids would use the stuff for anything but de-icing the pavements

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The bin I've just got my salt from was, rather cruelly I think, placed right outside the "Great Asby Institute for People with Exceedingly High Blood Pressure"

[MAF]

The bin I've just got my salt from was, rather cruelly I think, placed right outside the "Great Asby Institute for People with Exceedingly High Blood Pressure"

is that next door to the Great Ashby local fish and chip shop OON?

[kippure]

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index.asp

Chec out his european blog

From joe b

Edited December 28, 2009 by kippure

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Sir Rob, on his newly issued monthly outlook today, is going for a real wintry flavour for Jan! The wind to be dominated very much anything between northerly and south easterly.

Plus at various times it looks like snow for everyone!

[Ben_Cambs]

Lovely ECM and GFS charts. I think pratically everywhere in the country will be at risk of snow by the end of the week

[bennytes]

Only way is if the LP moved much further N.

Looking at your location take my advice and buy a bloody big shovel!

i did last week Eye!

[bloodhound]

May be off topic but how it felt walking back from Romford at 5.45 very cold cars were icy.

Gut instinct tells me that the mild temperatures seem to be retreating

I am generally right, proper cold air has a certain smell.

[desperately seeking]

Sorry about this but I couldn't think of a truly appropriate place to post this - I need to vent (in a - hopefully - humorous way )

I've been lurking around the forums for years and make very few posts as I find it hard to make a relevant and appreciated (not to say informed) addition to the conversations - I am confused. Not about models or the amount of snow/rain/cats/dogs/frogs we may get in Bromley - I've been hovering long enough to know that specifics (and in particular specific questions) aren't always appreciated. Instead I am confused as to why I find it necessary to keep reading (for example) the Model Output thread when I know:

1) No-one can say whether or not it will snow for a day over Bromley until it DOES snow for a day over Bromley

2) No-one can say if the rain that IS (possibly) coming will turn to snow or if it will turn the living room carpet into a flood topping

3) There is (almost) definitely going to be a return of cold (or very cold) air over the parts of the UK that aren't still cold from the "last" spell that started (in the SE ) a couple of weeks ago.

4) This cold air increases the chances of decent white stuff laying on the ground Outside My House but there is no guarantee.

Knowing the above to be true why do I keep reading the forums in the vain hope that someone somewhere will give me the definitive answer when I know there is none?

I think (after recent soggy mushy "school dinner" winters) I am lucky to be around when things are as interesting and edgy as they are now. My memories of good snow stem from the days in the the mid to late eighties when I was at boarding school near Ipswich and nearly every winter we had decent to extreme amounts of snow. My best memory is having to have an "A" level Chemistry lesson in the Staff room because the Chem lab was frozen shut and the path to it was "too dangerous" to get there... I just wish I had known then that I wouldn't see many more examples of that kind of weather so I could appreciate it for what it was - I remember cycling to the local snooker hall through 2 feet of snow over frozen paths and actually not managing to injure myself.

Sorry for rambling but for an addict of the forums who finds a reason to post as rarely as he finds foot long icicles and the front door frozen shut this kind of exciting weather tends to get in the way of "normal life" and I'm not entirely sure I know why...

Bring on the blizzards (which can't be confirmed until they've started...)

DS

Edited December 28, 2009 by desperately seeking

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sorry about this but I couldn't think of a truly appropriate place to post this - I need to vent (in a - hopefully - humorous way )

I've been lurking around the forums for years and make very few posts as I find it hard to make a relevant and appreciated (not to say informed) addition to the conversations - I am confused. Not about models or the amount of snow/rain/cats/dogs/frogs we may get in Bromley - I've been hovering long enough to know that specifics (and in particular specific questions) aren't always appreciated. Instead I am confused as to why I find it necessary to keep reading (for example) the Model Output thread when I know:

1) No-one can say whether or not it will snow for a day over Bromley until it DOES snow for a day over Bromley

2) No-one can say if the rain that IS (possibly) coming will turn to snow or if it will turn the living room carpet into a flood topping

3) There is (almost) definitely going to be a return of cold (or very cold) air over the parts of the UK that aren't still cold from the "last" spell that started (in the SE ) a couple of weeks ago.

4) This cold air increases the chances of decent white stuff laying on the ground Outside My House but there is no guarantee.

Knowing the above to be true why do I keep reading the forums in the vain hope that someone somewhere will give me the definitive answer when I know there is none?

I think (after recent soggy mushy "school dinner" winters) I am lucky to be around when things are as interesting and edgy as they are now. My memories of good snow stem from the days in the the mid to late eighties when I was at boarding school near Ipswich and nearly every winter we had decent to extreme amounts of snow. My best memory is having to have an "A" level Chemistry lesson in the Staff room because the Chem lab was frozen shut and the path to it was "too dangerous" to get there... I just wish I had known then that I wouldn't see many more examples of that kind of weather so I could appreciate it for what it was - I remember cycling to the local snooker hall through 2 feet of snow over frozen paths and actually not managing to injure myself.

Sorry for rambling but for an addict of the forums who finds a reason to post as rarely as he finds foot long icicles and the front door frozen shut this kind of exciting weather tends to get in the way of "normal life" and I'm not entirely sure I know why...

Bring on the blizzards (which can't be confirmed until they've started...)

DS

Don't worry, DS. As long as the cold air is in place, snow events will pop up, usually out of the blue. In the last week we've had 2 falls of 5 inches, neither of which were forecast until about 36 hours out on the forum, with a met office warning only coming out as snow was falling. Keep reading your local cold spell discussion for signs of a snow event.

[tumbleweed]

Just my ten pence worth........

Living in the North East of England, it is shielded by the coastal warming usually and this has been re-inforced by mild winters in the past.......I have lived through the winters of 78/79 in the South, when it started snowing New Years Eve and didn't stop until March / April 79 and as kids we were able to build a full sized igloo out of solid blocks of snow sawn out of snow drifts.....similar happened in 1981.

Now then what I marvel at and enjoy is the complacency of people whom just assume winters will just be grey and mild AGAIN........where as I think from now until March / April 2010 we will be in for a continually cold traditional winter.

As part of my following of this website for some years now, I also follow sun spots and the sun last year and this year has been at the minima and they are linked to solar flairs going across space which heat the earth and the sea......because the sun hasn't been active as normal, maybe some cooling has occured which has given us back traditional winters.

I am prepared with extra supplies of food and red wine....a snow shovel and snow man making gloves......I do not care if I get snowed in.

Do people not think the Met Office / BBC weather people are in the "Treat people like lemmings mode"?, to stop panic buying etc.......as Saturday the 19th of December, when everyone got a good 4 - 6 inches............the Met Office only released a weather warning alert at 3:30pm for severe snow action in the North East and by this time people were finishing off Chrimbo shopping and at Football matches etc.....hence the road grid lock ensued.

Whilst I am giving my views...I do smile at the coverage the South get when they get a decent dumping of snow....they are always poised to almost call a national emergency, where as if this happens in Wales, North of England or Scotland the news tellers cannot wait to get back to talk about dreary labour government politics...ughhh!!!

BRING IT ON........I am ready for the snow and awe stories the Daily Express will print about "Londoners in travel misery" LOL

I think the snow fall and cold has brough back community spirit in neighbour hoods and people are talking alot more to each other whcih is a good thing from all of this.

Edited December 29, 2009 by tumbleweed

[Eugene]

Incredible scenes in the countryside, went for a walk and the ground is rock hard with some icey patches around, on a nearby golf course one green even was cornered off because of very dangerous slippery ice

Parts of a river tributary frozen too and large puddles are rock solid i even tried jumping up and down on them and the ice didn't break

Even milder spells give ice just 1 mile outside of town

We aren't even in proper cold air yet

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

a lot less snow from this than people thought then?

[AderynCoch]

The front hasn't stalled yet. The heaviest snow is yet to come...

[Hammer]

Tumbleweed. The bias you mention which of course you and others seem to harp on about is due to a) nations capital here in South. quite a lot of media based in south c) large population in south east, london. I think on the balance of things media and met office get it about right and it won't change any time soon.

[Thunder Snow]

Winter Storm

Well As we draw to the end of 2009, the weather wants it to go out with a bang. A system is currently making its way up for the South-West, this is currently bringing heavy rain towards the South-West/Southern areas. 15-30mm is expected, there is a small risk of some localized flooding in these areas. However as the weather system moves further North, things will turn very interesting as it bumps into colder air. Snow is likely to fall anywhere North of the M4 corridor. At the moment it looks like Central/Eastern Wales and parts of the Midlands will see some of the worst weather, we could see several hours of heavy snow effecting these areas.

So as we move into this evening and overnight. The main band should have cleared South-Western/Southern area, however there will be a number of showers around these heavy and thundery at times.

Wales:

For western areas of Wales im expecting a mixture of rain/sleet and snow for most of the night, however for Central and Eastern Wales the weather will begin to turn interesting towards dusk. As much as 5-10cm is expected to lower ground, with as much as 30cm for higher routes. The snow is likely to fall through-out the night, This could lead to travel problems for Wednesday morning. It is also worth pointing out that, a strong Easterly wind will develop giving blizzard like conditions in place. Drifting snow is also likely to be a problems.

South-Eastern Areas/Eastern England:

A mixture of rain/sleet and snow showers are likely through-out the overnight period, these however should begin to fade towards dawn. Snow is more likely over higher-ground, however some wintriness is likely at times to lower ground. However if skies clear, there could be a problem with ice. For Eastern England there will also be a mixture of rain and sleet showers, with some snow possible across the hills. A Easterly wind will develop making it feel raw. Again ice could be a problem where showers have fallen.

Scotland:

Most of Scotland will be cold and frosty, with some snow/sleet showers towards the North-East giving a fresh covering of snow.

Northern England:

This is a hard one, im currently expecting the front to weaken and fragment as it move North. However i think there will be loads of showers of rain/sleet and snow at times. With higher amount of snow for the hills. However there could also be a dusting/covering for lower levels. I would not like to forecast any amounts lol.

Weather Warning

Areas Effected: Wales/Midlands/Central England

An area of rain has moved in from the South-West through-out the morning, but is now meeting colder air to the North. It is likely to snow across areas mentioned above for several hours, giving as much as 5-10cm to lower levels and up to 30cm over higher routes. There is likely to be travel/power problems, please stay tuned to the highways agency/local forecasts/local radio stations.

Weather Watch:

Areas Effected: Northern England/UK

Northern England: An areas of rain/sleet and snow is currently effecting Southern areas, and is likely to move further North. It is expected to weaken and fragment, but could give a covering in place high and lower ground. There is alot of uncertainty so i would not like to forecast any amount.

UK:

Areas away from the most Southern areas will see a risk of ice where showers have fallen.

Stay tuned to the forecast.

Thunder Snow

[kippure]

Joe B,s thoughts

COLD AIR STILL 12-24 HOURS AWAY FROM COMPLEX STORM <P itxtvisited="1">The powerful storm located on the southwest coast of England still does not have enough cold air to work with as the arctic air is still pushing south. However, with time, this very complex situation should turn cold enough so rain does turn to snow even in the lower elevations and mainly between London and Manchester. It is tricky, but we have to get that air to cool over the north sea first. <P itxtvisited="1">I expect the rain to change to snow from north to south as this storm, which is just in its early stages, matures. <P itxtvisited="1">There is no change on what is about to be a major attack of cold the first 10 days of the new year for much of Europe NORTH of 40 north. For folks in the southeast, (Greece, for instance, where there are lovers of winter) keep in mind that if you are going to share in the cold, it's later. This winter idea from me is the core of the cold is north of you. <P itxtvisited="1">But this storm is a perfect example of what I was talking about for this winter for the northwest! You see what is going on. The ebb and flow of the pattern has storms GOING SOUTH of England not just roaring by to the north. Why? The negative NAO, which was an idea I advanced here long before this winter started. And the heavy rains of November... remember the post talking about why that meant the trough was coming FOR THE WINTER. It's the same thing here in the states, we had the wet October. If it was just warm and dry, that is another signal. <P itxtvisited="1">These are not because of "freak events in the Pacific." You know how you can tell? Because I laid out certain criteria beforehand and the fruit of the labor, rather than staring at almighty models, are produced by humility in the face of the creation, not just saying I know the answer. <P itxtvisited="1">Admittedly micro-managing a storm like this exposes why the devil is in the detail, but a week from now, when we are in the new year, you tell me who was up late on Christmas Eve to warn people another round of major cold was brewing. <P itxtvisited="1">I have NOTHING against the Hadley Center, but I will be very curious as to what their outlook is for the rest of the winter and how they will explain what is going on. I think in light of what is going on, with a arrogance of authority in the climate and weather wars obvious (There is no human, or human-made, "authority" that holds the future in their hand and dictates events), before we discuss how hot 2010 will be we need to know why this was not the winter portrayed. And the explanation that December is only one month doesn't hold water since if they are doing their research on winters like this, they will see why January and February, could and should be as cold or colder. <P itxtvisited="1">It is not because of "freak events" in the Pacific. <P itxtvisited="1">By the way, it should be a warm summer for Europe, especially mid and late. <P itxtvisited="1">I have always had a huge amount of respect of the Hadley Center, but recent explanations have left me wondering if that was misplaced. I did defend their summer forecast, it WAS warm but it was wet, and when it's wet, it means there is a large-scale fight going on that is resisting warming! The first clue that there was trouble coming for the winter! Such things are not common knowledge among model worshippers and in fact are probably scoffed at. thanks for reading. Ciao for now. *******

Edited December 29, 2009 by kippure

[LomondSnowstorm]

Guess what? Heavy snow showers lying on the 8 inches of snow and ice now here with more to come, looking at the radar. And how much do those in the West Midlands have now? Any?

[keithlucky]

Has anybody an idea when this front stranded across central wales stars moving south?

[Snowyowl9]

Guess what? Heavy snow showers lying on the 8 inches of snow and ice now here with more to come, looking at the radar. And how much do those in the West Midlands have now? Any?

Heres what GFS shows in snow depth,hills of Wales are getting a pasting

I can confirm that heavy snow here all evening so far,can`t seem to go by the met office radar in this situation,5inches now.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/42_35.gif

[LomondSnowstorm]

Heres what GFS shows in snow depth,hills of Wales are getting a pasting

I can confirm that heavy snow here all evening so far,can`t seem to go by the met office radar in this situation,5inches now.

http://www2.wetter3....0_UTC/42_35.gif

Yeah, I realised how much snow there must be in parts of Wales while watching the heavy snow on tv at the Villa game.

[Optimus Prime]

To put into perspective how cold it's been in the highlands, Altnaharras average minimum is currently running at -4.0c upto the 29th. December 2006 was 2.1c.