Cold Spell Discussion

[Lowestoft]

After reading through a few pages of the General Model Output Discussion: it seems as though we are in for weather similar to that seen in the film "The Day After Tomorrow." This particular version of "The Day After Tomorrow" will come the day after, the day after, the day after, the day after, the day after tomorrow. But of course things could change, and then "The Day After Tomorrow" could be the day after the day that they originally thought it would be. If by some chance "The Day After Tomorrow" doesn't happen on the day that it is supposed to it will then be a case of waiting a few more days.

[Optimus Prime]

This is supposed to be the cold spell discussion...not heat discussion.

Will Scotland ever get above freezing? Not according to the latest GFS ensembles run.

[Coast]

Now I have been called a glass half-full sort of guy, but am I still missing something?

To my mind we have:

• Cold and snow currently in some areas of the country
  
• Synoptics in the models that are very encouraging
  
• Agreement in the short to medium terms (with most of the models) for a prolonged cold spell
  
• December has already bought most people a cold/snowy period as indicated in the models leading up to that time
  
• We are only part way through the Winter so far with the generally more favourable part coming up
  
• Although precipitation is currently not showing as some might want, the required cold leading up to any snowy precip' looks to be in place
  
• We never know when or where exactly any snow is likely to fall until it shows up on the radar and lampposts anyway.
  

Call me old fashioned, but I see a lot of potential and am remaining positive

[wysiwyg]

Call me old fashioned, but I see a lot of potential and am remaining positive

RAMPER!

Hehe just kidding - add to that the fact that there are three major models and a raft of "lesser" models all struggling to cope with unusual synoptics, initial conditons, wider teleconnected signals, etc etc etc

The most important trend for me is that all the predicted output shows the trend for remaining cold - it is utter folley to try and tack on any details wrt actual ground temperatures and precipitation levels for specific locations after T+48 hours.

We have seen some of the rarest winter synoptics and weather patterns in recent years in the last three weeks - savour these and enjoy what is about to happen

[Cloud 10]

Now I have been called a glass half-full sort of guy, but am I still missing something?

To my mind we have:

• Cold and snow currently in some areas of the country
• Synoptics in the models that are very encouraging
• Agreement in the short to medium terms (with most of the models) for a prolonged cold spell
• December has already bought most people a cold/snowy period as indicated in the models leading up to that time
• We are only part way through the Winter so far with the generally more favourable part coming up
• Although precipitation is currently not showing as some might want, the required cold leading up to any snowy precip' looks to be in place
• We never know when or where exactly any snow is likely to fall until it shows up on the radar and lampposts anyway.

Call me old fashioned, but I see a lot of potential and am remaining positive

The met office agree with you.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Jan 2010 to Wednesday 13 Jan 2010:

Many central and southern parts of England and Wales should enjoy a good deal of mostly dry and bright, but very cold weather throughout the period. Elsewhere, sleet and snow showers are likely to affect many northern and eastern parts with periods of more prolonged snow at times, particularly over parts of Scotland. Some very cold nights are expected with locally severe frost and ice on untreated surfaces. There is also a risk of overnight freezing fog across inland parts which may be slow to clear. Towards the end of the period it may turn a little less cold across parts of southwest England, but still with a risk of rain, sleet or snow at times.

Updated: 1202 on Wed 30 Dec 2009

[Coast]

RAMPER!

Undoubtedly, but the East side of the country (at least) has bags of potential:

[Thundersquall]

Not certain exactly where to post this, but the 5-minute radar clearly shows a line of stronger echoes running along or just to the south of the M4 Corridor.

RG1 is central Reading.

Wonder if this will turn wintry through this evening and into tonight?

Edited December 30, 2009 by Thundersquall

[davehsug]

Busy thread tonight. Is it going to be cold with a chance of snow in the South East perchance?

[charlton north-downs]

[

Shooters hill on alert from freezing hair at 240 + 264 as winds fall light northerly....

S

Edited December 30, 2009 by charlton north-downs

[damianslaw]

On a general note its great to see such a promisingly good start to January snow and cold wise, similiar to last year, but this year the synoptics look much more conducive for the cold to last further into the month and for snow to be a greater feature. How often in recent years have we started off January on a mild wet note, too often for my liking, the memories of jan 2005, 2007 and 2008 come to mind (he shudders..)

I hope that the cold spell will not do an about turn as occured in Jan 97 and last year come the 10-12th, however, I remain very optimistic that the cold will carry through into mid month, with increasing likelihood for blocking to develop to the NE. Blocking to the east if it develops from mid Jan I think will be a very difficult beast to shift, aided with the time of year, late Jan into Feb is when you want such blocking to occur, this traditionally being the coldest time of the year, and as we have seen even in recent years think 2005, 2006 there is a propensity for when you get strong blocking to the east to remain in situ through to March.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

This is supposed to be the cold spell discussion...not heat discussion.

Will Scotland ever get above freezing? Not according to the latest GFS ensembles run.

yeah it has been an incredible cold spell up in Scotland just cold day after day after doesnt seem like stopping in all. Scotlands the place to be ha.Cheers

Scott

[West is Best]

Anyone know the last time snow fell somewhere in Britain on 30 consecutive days? A real chance of that happening.

[disco-barry]

Superb up in Scotland yes! shame about the avalanches starting up now.

[TEITS]

Anyone know the last time snow fell somewhere in Britain on 30 consecutive days? A real chance of that happening.

I would say Richard you would have to go back to 1947!

Have to say i've enjoyed the brief warm up but I feel sorry for members in Scotland.

Speaking of this cold spell but I read something concerning about the amount of grit my local council has stored. I was reading in my local paper how much grit they used and how much they have left. Now I worked out that if the cold spell continues to mid Jan they will run out. What on earth happens beyond this because there would obviously be 6 weeks left of winter. My side roads were dreadful after the snow before xmas and I can't begin to imagine the chaos that would occur if they run out of grit. Im sure other local councils will be in the same position.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Speaking of this cold spell but I read something concerning about the amount of grit my local council has stored. I was reading in my local paper how much grit they used and how much they have left. Now I worked out that if the cold spell continues to mid Jan they will run out. What on earth happens beyond this because there would obviously be 6 weeks left of winter. My side roads were dreadful after the snow before xmas and I can't begin to imagine the chaos that would occur if they run out of grit. Im sure other local councils will be in the same position.

Without sounding condescending Dave, they would simply order more.

Grit supply is not limited, and there are further options (such as pure salt (Brown rock)).

[TEITS]

Without sounding condescending Dave, they would simply order more.

Grit supply is not limited, and there are further options (such as pure salt (Brown rock)).

You would assume they would do that but I wouldn't assume anything with my local council!

[charlton north-downs]

Finally temps this morning are lower than they have been for 4 days at 1.8c the wind feels colder. BBC weather forecaster

this morning said that Monday could be interesting. Hoping for some snow showers to hit the North Downs later today and all should be of snow not sleet. Kent and E Anglia should be in the firing line over the next few days and I'm hoping NWKent can do well from showers working there way inland.

At the ripe old age of 53 I have finally been treated to a weather station and want to start taking readings from the 1st Jan 2010 . For the last 3 days we have had a maximum temps of 3.8c and a minimum 2.8c. A mixture of rain and sleet has been almost constant . My question is over this period the Dewpoint has always read a fraction below actual temps is this correct because of the conditions and the instructions state that pressure should be set to a threshold of 3hpa but areas where there is frequent changes in air pressure should be 4hpa. Biggin Hill is over 650ft does that make a difference

[keithlucky]

Without sounding condescending Dave, they would simply order more.

Grit supply is not limited, and there are further options (such as pure salt (Brown rock)).

Also use a liquid salt base sprayed on by roadsweepers.

[snowingtequila]

You would assume they would do that but I wouldn't assume anything with my local council!

before Christmas they had to close the road to traffic because of the queues of lorries heading in to the salt mine yard, I dread to think what would happen if places ran out all at the same time. I think I am right in thinking most of the grit salt comes from Cheshire.

[andy_leics22]

Published at 09:00 on 28th December

All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)

(Next update at 09:00 on 4th Jan 2010)

Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

Cold with more snow.

This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable "proper winters". The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly - all cold at this time of the year.

All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010

Rain, wind, snow and ice.

A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.

At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy - rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.

A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.

Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.

Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010

Northerly wind all week.

Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.

A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.

The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.

Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010

Cold east or southeasterly wind.

Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.

Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.

Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind's direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.

Next week

In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not...

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

What a forecast by the master

[Dingwantssnow]

Published at 09:00 on 28th December

All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)

(Next update at 09:00 on 4th Jan 2010)

Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

Cold with more snow.

This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable "proper winters". The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly - all cold at this time of the year.

All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010

Rain, wind, snow and ice.

A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.

At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy - rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.

A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.

Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.

Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010

Northerly wind all week.

Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.

A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.

The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.

Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010

Cold east or southeasterly wind.

Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.

Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.

Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind's direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.

Next week

In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not...

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

What a forecast by the master

Bah!!! Cold and dry for NW england then...oh joy what exciting weather that is

[mezzacyclone]

Perhaps we can rename the thread to Cold extended-spell discussion any day soon?

Its clear lots of posters are standing on a beer crate seeking either attention or aspirations to increase their posts quota? or both???

The fundamental NAO picture ,regardless of its -VE negativity rendering the UK on the possibilities of a zonal influence, is a solid base for chances of interesting seasonal weather and coupled with all the other teleconnections leaves us with a pattern we have seldom observed or been even close to in quite a while.

These are some of the finest times I have ever known on NW and perhaps the new year could start with certain members reading more on here and elsewhere and then posting with constructive informative and interesting material instead of many a post simply looking for brownie points, bickering or elements of "trolling"?

happy new year NW folk

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

When was the last day snow didn't fall anywhere in the UK?

Equally when was the last day the temperature didn't fall below 0C anywhere in the UK?

[Optimus Prime]

When was the last day snow didn't fall anywhere in the UK?

Equally when was the last day the temperature didn't fall below 0C anywhere in the UK?

I don't know about snow but I can tell you the last time the temperature ANYWHERE in the British Isles failed to fall below freezing was on the morning of the 20th of November (2009) when the temperature struggled at 0.9c.

41 days ago.

Since 1st December the highest lowest minimum has been -0.9c.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Am I right in thinking that whereas what the models are showing at the moment are rare synoptics, they are not necessarily leading to rare or dramatic weather save for long lived cold?

As far as I note from the ensemples there is nothing being progged at the moment that could give significant and/or intense snowfall - like more than a foot in (say) 6 hours - rather, the possibility of constant relatively light showers (giving the odd cm) for more eastern and northern areas?

Just for the younger ones on here, I remember in the 80's in Yorkshire, a foot of snow overnight whereas not regular, happened now and again.

Please correct me if I am wrong on my interpretation of the charts.