General Model Output Discussion

[clark3r]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?25-0

Chart of the day IMBY for me ( although the rest come CLOSE)

Blizzards for the south + SE at 264-

Steve

very low temps aswell!

[andymusic]

Yep Steve, I strongly suspect the 12z ECM is a bit outlier for the LP track. Its possible of course but I'd have thought the most unlikely solution...though the general evolution looks pretty good...but I wouldn't be expecting the 144-168hrs too come off, thats the first time I've seen that particular evolution.

GFS showed this solution on the 00z this morning!

[West is Best]

The ECM is absolutely awesome. This taken together with the GFS ensembles mean a sigh of relief is possible. The overnight runs will be really important. Would be good to see UKMO shift. I'm really not sure why it has the low so far north: it's hundreds of miles out from ECM but it just doesn't seem to fit the synoptic pattern to the north.

We'll see! Meantime enjoy the ECM Christmas feast!

[Eugene]

Absolutely stonking ECM 12Z run tonight :o..... cold right til the end with a strong greenland high and a weak southerly tracking jet, just STUNNING!!! :o

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

　

just a higher benchmark for the razorblades this year

　

LOL... got to be the funniest christmas quote on the weather forums, so hilarious and sadly so true at the same time

[snowlover2009]

well gfs and ecm would bring blizzards here for tuesday and into wednesday. Although the south may have to wait for the rain to turn to snow, but the pattern is not nailed yet, but i think gradually we are getting there. brilliant charts

[Frosty.]

UKMO 12z seems on it's own but even that run shows strong bitter E'ly winds later with all the rain turning to snow. The gfs & ecm 12z are brilliant cold runs with enough snow to satisfy anyone plus sharp penetrating frosts..it's a bingo in my opinion.

[Snowaddict]

To add to the ECMWF evolution... JMA:

Not always rated much but the evolution is solidly further south than UKMO:

T+96

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma961.html

T+120

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html

Quite a tasty series of charts up to T+120 on tonight's JMA.

Northeasterlies later on with a reload from the far north looking set @ T+192...

Merry Xmas Evening All

[snowlover2009]

UKMO 12z seems on it's own but even that run shows strong bitter E'ly winds later with all the rain turning to snow. The gfs & ecm 12z are brilliant cold runs with enough snow to satisfy anyone plus sharp penetrating frosts..it's a bingo in my opinion.

still snow and blizzards to the north though, not to the south, but i don't think ukmo will win imo.

[Bolton67]

well gfs and ecm would bring blizzards here for tuesday and into wednesday. Although the south may have to wait for the rain to turn to snow, but the pattern is not nailed yet, but i think gradually we are getting there. brilliant charts

Could you please define the south?

South of the M4? South midlands?

[Frosty.]

still snow and blizzards to the north though, not to the south, but i don't think ukmo will win imo.

If the ukmo ran further than a measly 144 hours, it would show snow in all areas, slower evolution yes but ultimately the same result but imo it's likely to be the gfs or ecm which nails it and both are mega cold runs with no hint of a breakdown like the gfs 18z showed last night. The gfs 12z keeps it bitterly cold and wintry until 8th Jan...i'm amazed that some posters on here considered that a downgrade run.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Frosty039

[snowlover2009]

Could you please define the south?

South of the M4? South midlands?

how would i know? the models will change. I think if tonights ecm or gfs come off, the more north you are, the more chance it will be snow always falling, rather than rain to snow. probably rain first for south midlands south. i really am not sure

[kold weather]

12z ECM would very possibly give my area flooding, really quite a lot of rainfall coming in that set-up, I'd imagine in the end it would turn to snow even down here but the ECM has a mammoth snow event for those in the Midlands, whilst down here we get heavy rain for 2-3 days followed by a few hours of wet snow.

Very cold run though through to 240hrs on that run however.

Edited December 25, 2009 by kold weather

[snowlover2009]

If the ukmo ran further than a measly 144 hours, it would show snow in all areas, slower evolution yes but ultimately the same result but imo it's likely to be the gfs or ecm which nails it and both are mega cold runs with no hint of a breakdown like like the gfs 18z showed last night. The gfs 12z keeps it bitterly cold and wintry until 8th Jan...i'm amazed that some posters on here considered that a downgrade run.

i think i may understnad why. because the low is further north, bringing less chance of snow at first for the south? We could be in a good postition if tonights models verified, or i hope so.

[East Herts Snow]

Could you please define the south?

South of the M4? South midlands?

Usually the definition that people use to divine the North/South boundary (in England) is to use the Watford Gap motorway services in Northamptonshire (South Midlands).

The 'starting' snow boundary at present seems to centre around this boundary line and is the average starting point from all of the various weather charts. This is only a very rough guide and the eventual outcome maybe between 50 to 150 miles North or South of this line.

However this snow boundary line is projected to move further South later on next week.

Edited December 25, 2009 by North Londoner

[snowlover2009]

is there any chance that we could see some mammoth size drifts and snow if ecm or gfs came off tonight. Still to find out where the worst places will be affected, but i hope it could give me or some parts some very deep snow, that low to the models isn't going away fast and then more snow comes after this event.

[clark3r]

how would i know? the models will change. I think if tonights ecm or gfs come off, the more north you are, the more chance it will be snow always falling, rather than rain to snow. probably rain first for south midlands south. i really am not sure

wait till sunday night/Monday before we have a good idea looks to me that the ukmo has the low to far north and the gfs has the low more in line but we wont know more for couple of days yet but country wide should be in cold air by end of next week :-)

[Frosty.]

i think i may understnad why. because the low is further north, bringing less chance of snow at first for the south? We could be in a good postition if tonights models verified, or i hope so.

As I mentioned in an earlier post in reply to IB, I think the margin for error is between 50 and 100 miles north or south even at this range, either way the prospects for next week are a damn sight better than we could have dared to hope for until very recently.

[Bolton67]

Usually the definition that people use to divine the North/South boundary in UK is to use the Watford Gap motorway services in Northamptonshire (South Midlands).

I'm 20 mins drive away from that place.

We are East Midlands

[Snowmad79]

12z ECM would very possibly give my area flooding, really quite a lot of rainfall coming in that set-up, I'd imagine in the end it would turn to snow even down here but the ECM has a mammoth snow event for those in the Midlands, whilst down here we get heavy rain for 2-3 days followed by a few hours of wet snow.

Very cold run though through to 240hrs on that run however.

Sounds like a reasonable compremise to me tbh. Especially where the uk as a whole is concerned. The futher south and east the LP is positioned the less likely the North midlands Northwards get anything reasonable from an easterly or northeasterly.

Being in the NW the ECM would be more or less perfect or failing that a little futher north would do. As long as the Easterly winds are strong enough then im pretty much a happy man.

[Barb]

Suprised nobody mentioned GEM 12z, tis the pick of the bunch for me. Highly regarded model too I believe these days.

[Bolton67]

Suprised nobody mentioned GEM 12z, tis the pick of the bunch for me. Highly regarded model too I believe these days.

Evening Barb.

if that came off, south wales and the midland would need to dig themselves out.

[Wilxy]

Evening Barb.

if that came off, south wales and the midland would need to dig themselves out.

Could bristol be hit bad aswel.

[Terminal Moraine]

Interesting that the ECM 12z has the low at the end of next week which the GFS had on the 00z run but lost on the 06z and the 12z. It makes you wonder who is leading the way and who is playing catch up.

The Met'Office are obviously relying on their own model only as the forecast for the Peak District area for next Wednesday talks of rain with a low risk of snow.

[Bolton67]

Could bristol be hit bad aswel.

Keep watching.

[Wilxy]

Keep watching.

cool thanks.