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General Model Output Discussion


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

12z is a stunner for anybody from the midlands northwards,the ensembles have been showing this since yesterday. things looking great so far!! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but this has happened before. The GFS 12z has, at some point, infamously corrected previous trends in past winters, modifying and changing the course to the sort of synoptics that satisfy few. We need the other models to steer clear of this evolution and for the GFS to revert back to what it was showing before... and quick !

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Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

12z is a stunner for anybody from the midlands northwards,the ensembles have been showing this since yesterday. things looking great so far!! :)

As if you havent had enough already

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but this has happened before. The GFS 12z has, at some point, infamously corrected previous trends in past winters, modifying and changing the course to the sort of synoptics that satisfy few. We need the other models to steer clear of this evolution and for the GFS to revert back to what it was showing before... and quick !

I don't understand mate?

Do you mean you want the GFS to revert back asap because it's not what you want to see with the output?

The GFS will only show what it shows.

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but this has happened before. The GFS 12z has, at some point, infamously corrected previous trends in past winters, modifying and changing the course to the sort of synoptics that satisfy few. We need the other models to steer clear of this evolution and for the GFS to revert back to what it was showing before... and quick !

The 12z is worse in the short term but the long term is actually better...we don't want the upper high to get too far north otherwise it opens up the threat of the cold being got rid off from the SW...

Whole PV coming southwards, looks like the 0z ECm of yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

As if you havent had enough already

Nope, this is my first snow fall for 15 years, so cant be begrudged it! As TWS would vouch when he lived up this way, west lancashire must be one - if not the most - snowless places in the UK :)

Edited by arron123
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, if that's a 'downgrade,' I don't think I'd want an upgrade??? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

I don't understand mate?

Do you mean you want the GFS to revert back asap because it's not what you want to see with the output?

The GFS will only show what it shows.

Lewis

Yes. Certainly more hope over expectation (it always is). It's not an evolution as such yet, that will come with subsequent runs. While it remains just the one run of many, there is a chance that the GFS can revert back to the classic battle ground snow event for many.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

As if you havent had enough already

lol oh well its still a little early.

but i do sympathise with you,

dont worry our time will come still plenty of chopping and changing to come and theres still a possible 2months of winter left.:)

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

You'll have your fair amount of snow during the cold snap with showers off the North Sea while us down in the SW only do well off frontal snow, disapointing really. This is one run, its going to head back south, Met Office seem to think so too. Every run pretty much but this one has showed the snow down south and lack of air traffic will effect charts too.

Edited by Wales123098
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Lol it's funny because those who were in the snow risk line on the 06Z and are less likely on this run is calling this run a downgrade because of that reason. You know you have been spoilt for choice in the models if people are moaning about a "downgrade" even though to my eye, they still look great for a cold snap/spell. I'm sure the people in Scotland would tell you that.

I don't personally see a downgrade, the milder air is slightly north than the 06Z but that's about it. I would prefer if it was further South on an IMBY POV because i don't feel my location would get persistent snow and would get persistent rain instead due to the winds being off the sea.

Anyways, it's still too far out to be focusing on the exact details, so stop worrying about minor changes like the milder air is 50 miles more North than the previous run!

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1804.png

If this chart was at +6 hours i think us snow deprived Welsh & West Midlands would be litterally screaming with happiness.

A halfway house between the 06z and 12z would do fine in the shorter term though, it looks like the fact the weather front moves so slow though means everywhere that gets hit by it other than Coastal areas may get snow at some point from it.

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

The 12z is worse in the short term but the long term is actually better...we don't want the upper high to get too far north otherwise it opens up the threat of the cold being got rid off from the SW...

Whole PV coming southwards, looks like the 0z ECm of yesterday.

Quite true KW, but I tend to focus more on the short-medium term. It's always a shame when you lose a potential big snow event, even if there are signs of promise further on.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Couple of strange posts regarding the 12z.All it is showing is a different end game to the cold winning out.Which it will,and in the process somewhere will be pasted.Enjoy the evolution poeple, it is certainly different.The n/ne flow will hold a few surprises at very short noticesmile.gif A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ONE AND ALLcold.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

You'll have your fair amount of snow during the cold snap with showers off the North Sea while us down in the SW only do well off frontal snow, disapointing really. This is one run, its going to head back south, Met Office seem to think so too. Every run pretty much but this one has showed the snow down south and lack of air traffic will effect charts too.

Lack of air traffic does not exist, when you have your trans-Atlantic and also your other air traffic!

At 5-6 days out, your already looking for excuses when 1 run go's tit's up for your location.

No wonder this thread at peak becomes trash.

The current 12z is fantastic for everyone.

Take one run at a time,

Simple

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Yes UKMO is a horror show. Dear me.

UKMO is a horror show, i was expecting a massive bartlett with mild SW'lies but i was proven to be wrong.

The UKMO does show why you want the low further South however, as you don't really want it too fill over the UK(unless you have cold air already over you then that won't be a problem regarding snow potential) but some places i would still imagine would get alot of snowfall.

Sorry Supercell, but we don't lose a potential major snow event, it just gets shifted Northwards that's all the GFS 12Z shows. To prove i am not regional bias either, i want the low further south as my post sort of explains what the risk could be if the low is too far North.

Edited by Geordiesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester

Lack of air traffic does not exist, when you have your trans-Atlantic and also your other air traffic!

At 5-6 days out, your already looking for excuses when 1 run go's tit's up for your location.

No wonder this thread at peak becomes trash.

The current 12z is fantastic for everyone.

Take one run at a time,

Simple

Lewis

Lewis

You say the current 12z is fantastic for everyone - could you explain what you mean , please

Thanks

Richard

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

Sorry Supercell, but we don't lose a potential major snow event, it just gets shifted Northwards that's all the GFS 12Z shows. To prove i am not regional bias either, i want the low further south as my post sort of explains what the risk could be if the low is too far North.

Yes, it has has all been shifted northwards along with the accompanying milder air. Maybe central Wales could see some snow, especially with altitude. Although I think it has, at best, been marginalised anywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Lewis

You say the current 12z is fantastic for everyone - could you explain what you mean , please

Thanks

Richard

Hi richard, you have a NE'rly then a Northerly, then a NW'erly with the LP sinking south, dew points fantastic throughout, across all regions/areas, you have sub 528 dam throughout, you will have trough's streamers, frequent showers, coming from everywhere, a lovely messy unstable setup is my word for it :)

Lewis

Edited by Storm Force Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Yes, it has has all been shifted northwards along with the accompanying milder air. Maybe central Wales could see some snow, especially with altitude. Although I think it has, at best, been marginalised anywhere.

Yep and no doubt that will change in future runs, whether it will be further Northwards or Southwards remain to be seen but i did not understand all the panic about one GFS run showing the milder air being a bit further northwards than it's previous run. The next run could send it further southwards and i for one hope that will be the case.

If there is one "bad" run, it would be the UKMO, the low is too far North but even on this, i still think some places in the UK could get alot of snowfall.

Be interesting what the ECM thinks, it has been siding with the GFS mostly and keep the low around the Northern France area so let just hope this continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

I think that its just one blip in the trend, the trend is is for it to move southwards so I believe so I still believe south mids and south/mid wales will be hit the worst. The reason that its not good for all is because only the north will be cold while it would be mild over most of the south so dont say its good for all because 4c uppers arent good are they.

Edited by Wales123098
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Its not a bad run but it still doesn't look nearly as good as the global teleconnections would suggest...though any breakdown doesn't really happen right till the end of the run and even then I'd bet any money its too quick in powering up the PV again, classic progressive bias in FI...

The general evolution upto 180hrs is very slow but it does look pretty solid its just a matter of how long it takes to shunt the low out of the way...

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

Yep and no doubt that will change in future runs, whether it will be further Northwards or Southwards remain to be seen but i did not understand all the panic about one GFS run showing the milder air being a bit further northwards than it's previous run. The next run could send it further southwards and i for one hope that will be the case.

If there is one "bad" run, it would be the UKMO, the low is too far North but even on this, i still think some places in the UK could get alot of snowfall.

Be interesting what the ECM thinks, it has been siding with the GFS mostly and keep the low around the Northern France area so let just hope this continues.

Yeah, let's bring some Christmas cheer and hope to this thread. It isn't a downgrade. I used the term loosely.

I tend to focus on the shorter term rather than the wider evolution. Once a pattern emerges, over a number of runs, i'll begin to follow it. Let's hope the later evolution can become the trend and eventual provider for us all :)

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