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General Model Output Discussion

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A new thread ready for the 12z.

Merry Christmas everyone! :)

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Merry Christmas all...!!

I keep hearing reference to lots of rain in the south, over on TWO too. Is this right? Seems a shame really, does this mean the required uppers won't reach us or due to London heat island and Thames Valley? Can anyone offer some info on this? Sounds like the midlands is in for some snow.

It's actually pleasant out, sunshine and cold at 1c but it doesn't feel that bad. Birds were chirping too...

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Merry Christmas all...!!

I keep hearing reference to lots of rain in the south, over on TWO too. Is this right? Seems a shame really, does this mean the required uppers won't reach us or due to London heat island and Thames Valley? Can anyone offer some info on this? Sounds like the midlands is in for some snow.

It's actually pleasant out, sunshine and cold at 1c but it doesn't feel that bad. Birds were chirping too...

It's uncertain at the moment. But my guess is South of the M4 will get rain initially turning to heavy snow later on, even for the South East. North of the M4 will get snow from the off and especially over higher ground.

That's my wager.

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Doesn't matter what they're saying on 'TWO'. The event is still 120 hours away, we won't have a clue until atleast 24 hours into the time frame. In fact it's probably a nowcast event like what we just had.

120_30.gif

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Its a messy set-up, the front will probably give rain to the south, though the further west you are the less north you are going to need to be to get snowfall.

I'd say rain for the south is the most likely option but if the front does keep getting adjusted southwards then odds get better for the south, however I'd put the sweet spot still in the south Midlands for now. The longer the front stays in place though the greater the cold air undercut will become and the greater chances become for the south, esp as the second front comes in and brings another wave of heavy precip into the south.

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It's uncertain at the moment. But my guess is South of the M4 will get rain initially turning to heavy snow later on, even for the South East. North of the M4 will get snow from the off and especially over higher ground.

That's my wager.

the rain turning to snow....is this the result of cold air undercutting? So if it does turn to heavy snow it should settle but how much we get depends on how long that takes to happen if it does. Potentially we could be in for some bad flooding?

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Remember also we won't have the ground level temperature as low as what we have had. That's going to increase the marginality. And the continents also warmer so there will be a mild draw into the flow from France.

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Remember also we won't have the ground level temperature as low as what we have had. That's going to increase the marginality. And the continents also warmer so there will be a mild draw into the flow from France.

Another jog south for the 0c isotherm on the 12z- ( t72 V t78 )

Very happy thus far with the run-

As for posts of rain Over on TWO- people will be none the wiser there than here-

over the last 24 hours the trend has been further south whether people like that or not- that is good for the MAJORITY in the south, & only poor if you were on the northern extent of the PPN in the central midlands & North Wales....

Steve

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Remember also we won't have the ground level temperature as low as what we have had. That's going to increase the marginality. And the continents also warmer so there will be a mild draw into the flow from France.

It doesn't sound ideal for my neck of the woods. Sounds like the conditions won't be quite right. Also being so far out it could become even less favourable right? It sounds that our Midland and Northern counterparts shall see some exciting stuff..!

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Another jog south for the 0c isotherm on the 12z- ( t72 V t78 )

Very happy thus far with the run-

Steve

Steve, GME/DWD 12Z is an absolute stunner...

Low pressure persisting to the immediate south, 1045mb cut-off Greenland High along with widespread 850's of -6 and a tight pressure gradient..

Some regions across southern Ireland and southern Wales/England would get significant snowfall if this were to verify. Looking extremely promising at the moment:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0

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Looking good for yorkshire and lincs again, aint we spoiled with charts like this :)

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Bah humbug from the 12z- the trough doesnt elongate along the channel like the 06z so the snowline will be further north-

im sure it will be great in the long run though-

Onto the next runs....

S

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Another jog south for the 0c isotherm on the 12z- ( t72 V t78 )

Very happy thus far with the run-

As for posts of rain Over on TWO- people will be none the wiser there than here-

over the last 24 hours the trend has been further south whether people like that or not- that is good for the MAJORITY in the south, & only poor if you were on the northern extent of the PPN in the central midlands & North Wales....

Steve

I think our area may struggle regardless given that easterly wind is going to bring in slightly modified air from the North Sea which looks like being wrong side of marginal, meanwhile further west conditions look better on this run...everything still seems to be trending southwards on the latest few GFS runs.

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I can see two things happening from this;

The low gets pushed further southwards and ends up not much further north then the south coast - 5 miles inland and so we get a colder east feed with snow showers in the east.

Either way that's not a bad proposition compared to what we had prior to 2008. With the pattern being repeated thus far January looks like starting off very cold and wintry indeed.

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It's all a bit further North on this run. It's chopping by 50-100 miles every run which is to be expected, overall though I think the main risk areas are still Wales/Midlands.

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Steve, GME/DWD 12Z is an absolute stunner...

Low pressure persisting to the immediate south, 1045mb cut-off Greenland High along with widespread 850's of -6 and a tight pressure gradient..

Some regions across southern Ireland and southern Wales/England would get significant snowfall if this were to verify. Looking extremely promising at the moment:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0

Yes a better run from the GME as the gradient from the NE is squeezed in better-

There will be ups & downs from the models- but we are homing in on a big event for some luvky soldier!

S

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Bah humbug from the 12z- the trough doesnt elongate along the channel like the 06z so the snowline will be further north-

im sure it will be great in the long run though-

Onto the next runs....

S

A horrid and cold day Tuesday turns out to be her ein the SE, maxes of 2C and heavy rain!

Anyway 12z takes the snowline quite a bit further north as you mention.

Also a much slower evolution with the LP really holding back to the SW...not the best of runs thus far in the medium term though still decent for those who get the snow..but the angle is worse all over the UK for snow...

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The warmer air is marching northwards on this run. Mostly a rain event early next week. Let's hope it's a missing data issue.

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Yes a better run from the GME as the gradient from the NE is squeezed in better-

There will be ups & downs from the models- but we are homing in on a big event for some luvky soldier!

S

I know it's generally too early to talk about dew points, and surface conditions etc. But with the models showing + dew points across the country when and during the band hits, all be it Scotland, i would think it would be a marginal affair everywhere? Thickness aint brilliant either.

Or am i missing something?

Lewis

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also the upper high near Greenland not nearly so well developed by 120hrs either...this run could well be a downgrade in FI as well if the upper ridge doesn't strengthen, PV not quite so favourable in position either thus far.

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It's all a bit further North on this run. It's chopping by 50-100 miles every run which is to be expected, overall though I think the main risk areas are still Wales/Midlands.

Oh 50-100 miles, that's a fair bit of movement. The recent event I got a return of about 4 inches, so not bad but would be great to see that bettered. Considering the fall in Feb 2009 not too bad at all really. Anymore would be something but seems very uncertain.

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Oh 50-100 miles, that's a fair bit of movement. The recent event I got a return of about 4 inches, so not bad but would be great to see that bettered. Considering the fall in Feb 2009 not too bad at all really. Anymore would be something but seems very uncertain.

Is not much at this range, it can change by that much on the day of the event. The snow line will keep moving N and S each run so no point focusing on one individual run. Plenty of uncertainty about this event.

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Possible flooding rains for the south on this run, the LP takes a AGE to get out of the way because the block takes a long time to strengthen, it does get there in the end however as the whole PV comes marching southwards from the pole into Scandinavia.

Hope to the lord the LP doesn't take 72hrs to get out of the way like that run shows, rainfall would be immense for the south it has to be said!

So slower evolution of the general pattern, however should be a decent run for the 1st of Jan onwards!

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Is not much at this range, it can change by that much on the day of the event. The snow line will keep moving N and S each run so no point focusing on one individual run. Plenty of uncertainty about this event.

Good post,

Just wish some of the more senior members and forecasters thought like that, it saves mood changing every run, like i said yesterday, one model won't confirm it almost a week out. The models chop and change all the time, i just take it as "what's gunna happen will happen", regardless of every single run.

This run looks fantastic for us up North.

Merry Xmas mate

Lewis

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