North West Cold Spell 9

[snowingtequila]

erm YES it was, early this morning...the whole of northern England was under an orange warning that is.

not worth discussing whether or not there was an orange warning! The point is there was uncertainty about the positioning of the low and still is. The GFS would bring it to the region but the met office are not going by this.

[HotCuppa]

not worth discussing whether or not there was an orange warning! The point is there was uncertainty about the positioning of the low and still is. The GFS would bring it to the region but the met office are not going by this.

at 7.55am this morning the whole of the north of england was under a warning for today, whether that was an operational thing they do every so often to ensure its actually working I cannot tell you, all that I know is what I saw, which I thought was rather ridiculous to say the least.

The met and ecm have the low to far north, GFS has it much further south, both are slowly coming together..not both right but getting there..somwhere in between is where the fireworks will occur

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Never snows where i live]

OK, what's the chance of Birkenhead getting any tomorrow...or Warrington where i work?

[V for Very Cold]

good lord !!! I try and sleep off 3 turkeys, 43 mince pies and a gallon of port to find i) the roads are like skating rinks and ii) tomorrow I'm either getting a flood or about a foot of snow - erm - clarification anyone ?

(and I meant about the weather, not my diet tyvm)

[HotCuppa]

good lord !!! I try and sleep off 3 turkeys, 43 mince pies and a gallon of port to find i) the roads are like skating rinks and ii) tomorrow I'm either getting a flood or about a foot of snow - erm - clarification anyone ?

(and I meant about the weather, not my diet tyvm)

haha yes you need to see the dietrician eating all that turkey and mincepies

actually we are still waiting to see where this low will end up..very much a case of probably a foot of rain followed by a foot of snow. Time to build a boat sturdy enough lol

snowing tequila...your absolutely right the warnings for the north of england (orange) where for ice not for the lp..which i was bleary eyed thought it was for the lp

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[V for Very Cold]

haha yes you need to see the dietrician eating all that turkey and mincepies

actually we are still waiting to see where this low will end up..very much a case of probably a foot of rain followed by a foot of snow. Time to build a boat sturdy enough lol

snowing tequila...your absolutely right the warnings for the north of england (orange) where for ice not for the lp..which i was bleary eyed thought it was for the lp

ahhhhh, well fingers crossed the pennines repeat the trick they've managed so far this month and ward off the rain..........................

[snowingtequila]

at 7.55am this morning the whole of the north of england was under a warning for today, whether that was an operational thing they do every so often to ensure its actually working I cannot tell you, all that I know is what I saw, which I thought was rather ridiculous to say the least.

The met and ecm have the low to far north, GFS has it much further south, both are slowly coming together..not both right but getting there..somwhere in between is where the fireworks will occur

maybe I have been misreading the charts but to me the GFS has the low to far north and the ECM has it in a better position, perhaps you could pinpoint the charts you mean.

[karyo]

The morning bbc24 forecasts were showing the band of precipitation approahing us from the south tomorrow afternoon, and then stalling over us on Wednesday.

However, the latest ones, show the band stalling over Wales and the Midlands, while our region stays dry. I hope they are wrong, because if the band doesn't make it here tomorrow or Wednesday, then it will be predominantly dry for the rest of the week!

Karyo

[snowingtequila]

I would rather it didn't make it here to be honest because then we will end up with colder air and probably snow by new year. I still ave a covering here if a little thin and icy I can wait!

[Backtrack]

at 7.55am this morning the whole of the north of england was under a warning for today, whether that was an operational thing they do every so often to ensure its actually working I cannot tell you, all that I know is what I saw, which I thought was rather ridiculous to say the least.

The met and ecm have the low to far north, GFS has it much further south, both are slowly coming together..not both right but getting there..somwhere in between is where the fireworks will occur

Actually, it hasnt changed from yellow - It said last update : Sunday 27th December at 11:11am

[V for Very Cold]

hmmmmmmmmmm looking through the charts and metO and BBc forecasts, it appears that we are on a bit of a knifeedge, though I have to say I'm intruged by NW's forecast of 7cm of rain on Wednesday with no chance of any snow :-S - I can only dream of 7cm of rain falling as snow

[trickydicky]

Should be on for some low minima tonight in our area. Its already -4.6 at Shap, and below freezing here too.

[chris78]

Latest charts seem to have caused a big stir on the model discussion thread....apocolyptic for someon by the looks of things....would be grateful if someone could explain what latest models mean for us in terms of mid week event and long term.

Still not cooling down much here.

[Snowmad79]

The morning bbc24 forecasts were showing the band of precipitation approahing us from the south tomorrow afternoon, and then stalling over us on Wednesday.

However, the latest ones, show the band stalling over Wales and the Midlands, while our region stays dry. I hope they are wrong, because if the band doesn't make it here tomorrow or Wednesday, then it will be predominantly dry for the rest of the week!

Karyo

Yep lets hope some of us in the NW catch the northern fringes of the showers before they stall in the that strong easterly wind. Oh and were still in the Meto advisories for heavy snow updated 11.11 today.

The 12z GFS still has the system a tad to far north on its maiden approach and for me the pecrip chart shows it by moving the heavy ppn over us. I really do hope its a bit futher south than this.. wed be in the colder air and may still catch some decent flurries.

This chart above would also mean the boundary of -5 to 0c 850's over us rather than -5 and below

[cheshire snow]

Ok for what its worth i do now think the PPN will reach parts of NW England

places like Liverpool/South cheshire/Greater Manchester

From about 1500 onwards

Obviously the million dollar question will be Rain/Sleet or Snow?

C.S

[Dingwantssnow]

Im sorry but there is a huge ammount of bias on the model thread and i just gave up. Anyone in here can tell me if the front will reach as far north as here?

[V for Very Cold]

Ok for what its worth i do now think the PPN will reach parts of NW England

places like Liverpool/South cheshire/Greater Manchester

From about 1500 onwards

Obviously the million dollar question will be Rain/Sleet or Snow?

C.S

think you're right CS, and I really can;t call this one - Wednesday is predicted to be torrentail - but it's still barely above freezing here - woul;d have though and significant drop and we could be looking at some more major snowfall, no temp drop and there could be flooding somewhere. The next 12 hours should give us a better indication

[cheshire snow]

think you're right CS, and I really can;t call this one - Wednesday is predicted to be torrentail - but it's still barely above freezing here - woul;d have though and significant drop and we could be looking at some more major snowfall, no temp drop and there could be flooding somewhere. The next 12 hours should give us a better indication

Metcheck just updated oh how i wish they were acurate

You are due over 20cm Tomorrow night and get this for Northwich from Tues Night throught to Wed night non stop

Heavy Snow and upto 39cm by the time the front goes

C.S

[Troubleatmill]

Im sorry but there is a huge ammount of bias on the model thread and i just gave up. Anyone in here can tell me if the front will reach as far north as here?

Does your head in doesnt it

Not sure if its going to reach here or not & i doubt whether anyone here or anywhere else can say one way or another for sure .The met office seem prety sure it will get as far as say Cheshire, but not much further, GFS model keeps pushing it further north,

If im honest i would say if it did get to our region it may only be a sleety cold rain mix at low level anyway, so pesonally i am not that fussed, but if your in manchester or east lancs you would see some snow.

Dont think we will know untill tomorrow and keep an eye on the radar to see. A good cold period is looking on the cards though, so maybe further chances down the line, were never best placed for these things though unfortunately

Edited December 28, 2009 by arron123

[Shaun L]

think you're right CS, and I really can;t call this one - Wednesday is predicted to be torrentail - but it's still barely above freezing here - woul;d have though and significant drop and we could be looking at some more major snowfall, no temp drop and there could be flooding somewhere. The next 12 hours should give us a better indication

BBC forecast at 1730 has the NW under snow from teatime tomorrow. Today's max on the coast was 1.1c and it's currently below freezing already. As long as dew points are ok i'm sure it will be snow if the ppn does make it this far north.

[Snowmad79]

Im sorry but there is a huge ammount of bias on the model thread and i just gave up. Anyone in here can tell me if the front will reach as far north as here?

Well said mate and the reason Ive stopped posting in there as of late. its become too much a south ramp thread. All that talk of the colder air etc futher south is nonsense looking at the latest fax charts and the 12 GFZ the mild/cold boundary is still over/ around the northwest when that ppn hits.

850's around the time on the ensembles -5 to -4 = Marginal (12z GFS Ens)

Icotherms would mean altitudes of 500m - 1000m would see wintery precip ( 0c would be wintery precip to low levels)

Thickness- Blues are what you look for over your area when looking for wintery precip and we are not supported by these either >

Dew Points - Obviously 0c and below are supportive of wintery or snow precip types. As you can see from the following chart, Dewpoints would only be favourable in the north lancashire and cumbrian regions. >

Basically we either dont want the GFS to verify or we want it to shift the action south considerably otherwise this event will be a rain event or sleet at best for us in the North west.

[karyo]

Yep lets hope some of us in the NW catch the northern fringes of the showers before they stall in the that strong easterly wind. Oh and were still in the Meto advisories for heavy snow updated 11.11 today.

The 12z GFS still has the system a tad to far north on its maiden approach and for me the pecrip chart shows it by moving the heavy ppn over us. I really do hope its a bit futher south than this.. wed be in the colder air and may still catch some decent flurries.

This chart above would also mean the boundary of -5 to 0c 850's over us rather than -5 and below

When there is heavy precipitation (loke the gfs shows) and an easterly flow, the upper air temperature is not so much of a problem (look last Wednesday as a recent example).

However, the 12z gfs has shifted everything considerably to the south and it will probably continue to do so, to come more in line with the other models. Therefore, I think we'll end up dry and cold for much of this week!

I will be gutted to see the midlands southwards getting loads of snow and us missing out! The model output discussion has a strong south/southeast bias and I can't be bothered posting there anymore!

Karyo

[Snowmad79]

When there is heavy precipitation (loke the gfs shows) and an easterly flow, the upper air temperature is not so much of a problem (look last Wednesday as a recent example).

However, the 12z gfs has shifted everything considerably to the south and it will probably continue to do so, to come more in line with the other models. Therefore, I think we'll end up dry and cold for much of this week!

I will be gutted to see the midlands southwards getting loads of snow and us missing out! The model output discussion has a strong south/southeast bias and I can't be bothered posting there anymore!

Karyo

Disagree, looks more or less the same with the magority of the North of England with unfavourable conditions. The first intial approach of the centre of the low still appears roughly the same, to the south of Ireland and after wednesday it does start to sink it if thats what you mean ?

How does easterly flow help other than to stall the initial progression of ppn bands ? Yeah ok 850's arnt to much of a problem but look at the other supportive features like dew points, thickness and Icotherms none of them are condusive.

I do agree id be gutted to see them just below us getting burried but tbh Id rather be cold and dry than cold and soaked tbh :lol:

Edited December 28, 2009 by Snowmad79

[cheshire cat]

Ditto chaps, couple of very good last posts

Very marginal for us, my punt would be jct 18 of the m6

but it has chopped and changed so much the radar is the way to go

[chris78]

looks like the radar is going to be the only way...when would expect to see the front appear on the meto radar?

or is that it in the sw now??

Edited December 28, 2009 by chris78