North West Cold Spell 9

[chris78]

oops

oops

[Liam J]

had bits and peices of wet snow and sleet but nothing to much was very wet stuff with a temp here of 1.7c although inland weather stations showning temps of 0.5c so myabe inland it will be snow

[shadowfax]

I can confirm it is snowing in Bacup, just came back from a quick drink at the neighbours, and ask we walked out of their back door a big flake hit me. It's been sleeting on and off all day, but this is snow and it was settling.

Shadowfax

[meerkat63]

Yep a true sustained Easterly can give some decent snowfall to our side of the Pennines, although obviously the clue is in the title to which parts are mostly favoured. It's worth baring in mind that although the recent cold spell, was setup by an easterly, it wasn't until the winds switched round to the North and then a North Westerly, that we got the most snowfall. Well from a personal point of view that seemed to be the case.

I also remember the snow bonaza's we got in the 80's but likewise i was too young to be interested from what direction the colder weather originated from lol

As I mentioned in an earlier post though a north west orientation can be extremely risky. Yes it paid off this time , but on so many occasions I have been disappointed watching showers slide by through the Cheshire Gap delivering nothing to my part of the world anyway while Cheshire and Derbyshire take a real pasting. A northerly is even worse - this affects only exposed coasts and hills, particularly good for the likes of north Wales.

If you go back to the really bad winters - '47, '63 and even 1978/9 and the winters of the '80s to an extent the overriding feature was the easterly airstream which predominated. The true feature of course was the set-up which allowed that to take place to begin with and made any incursion of milder air very difficult to succeed in overcoming the cold airmass over the UK. Hence many severe blizzards during '47 and '63 particularly which delivered to everyone in the north west - not just those to the east of the region.

[karyo]

Looking into next week, another cold spell is upon us! It never really went properly mild anyway!

The afternoon models (ECM and UKMO 12z's) seem to prolong the cold spell which is good news! However, they also keep the precipitation further south, so Wales and the Midlands benefits from sustained snowfall while we stay mostly dry. If this trend continues,we will have to catch snow showers in the east/northeast wind so hit and miss.

Let's hope we struck lucky again.

Karyo

[Spurry]

I can confirm it is snowing in Bacup, just came back from a quick drink at the neighbours, and ask we walked out of their back door a big flake hit me. It's been sleeting on and off all day, but this is snow and it was settling.

Shadowfax

Thats good , the radar is working correctly then

Still seems to be taking a left 'easterly' turn just before it reaches me though

Edited December 27, 2009 by Spurry

[meerkat63]

Looking into next week, another cold spell is upon us! It never really went properly mild anyway!

The afternoon models (ECM and UKMO 12z's) seem to prolong the cold spell which is good news! However, they also keep the precipitation further south, so Wales and the Midlands benefits from sustained snowfall while we stay mostly dry. If this trend continues,we will have to catch snow showers in the east/northeast wind so hit and miss.

Let's hope we struck lucky again.

Karyo

Hi Karyo

If the ECM / UKMO verify then despite missing out in the short-term re a possible full on blizzard it may only be a matter of time before we get our share of the fun.

The low being further south both prolongs the cold, assists in its more rapid intensification and means that a cold spell with great potential is more likely than would otherwise be the case were the low to take a more northerly track. I will quite happily take that.

[karyo]

Hi Karyo

If the ECM / UKMO verify then despite missing out in the short-term re a possible full on blizzard it may only be a matter of time before we get our share of the fun.

The low being further south both prolongs the cold, assists in its more rapid intensification and means that a cold spell with great potential is more likely than would otherwise be the case were the low to take a more northerly track. I will quite happily take that.

I agree winterman,

the lengthening of the cold spell is very important as it opens the door for many snow opportunities! I just think I will feel very frustrated by the middle of the week, seing heavy snow reports from Birmingham (where I used to live) while we are dry!

Anyway, by the end of the week we should catch a trough or a shortwave with decent snowfall!

All good news and a far cry from most recent winters!

Karyo

[Weather-history]

I suspect next week won't be as snowy as last week was for a good part of our region.

[chris78]

ok if im getting it right long term is good as cold spell drags on short term we miss out. in general there seems to be a lot of extement and talk of a winter we havnt seen in thirty years.tell me, honestly (im new) do people nere get ghis exited rdbularly or is this potentially big.

[Interitus]

Hi Karyo

If the ECM / UKMO verify then despite missing out in the short-term re a possible full on blizzard it may only be a matter of time before we get our share of the fun.

The low being further south both prolongs the cold, assists in its more rapid intensification and means that a cold spell with great potential is more likely than would otherwise be the case were the low to take a more northerly track. I will quite happily take that.

I think it's daft that people think in terms of a 'long game' missing out in the short term may be better later on - these same comments were made last February and we didn't get much long or short term then either.

As for this week, yes there is the distinct possibility that this may not produce much - it could not reach this area as Meto and ECM are hinting, or if it does then the eastern Welsh upslopes and the Peak District get a pasting whilst much of the southern NW are in a snow shadow.

However, there is the potential for a more substantial fall of snow for the low ground areas which didn't and don't get much from showery north westerlies with their attendant onshore flow.

[cheshire snow]

I think at this stage if N Wales gets the snow then i think the southern half of the region is in for a good shout

At this stage i would say city centre Manchester southwards

Intresting that Met Check go for heavey snow for Cheshire from 1500 onwards on Tues and that was updated this evening

Thoughts anyone?

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think at this stage if N Wales gets the snow then i think the southern half of the region is in for a good shout

At this stage i would say city centre Manchester southwards

Intresting that Met Check go for heavey snow for Cheshire from 1500 onwards on Tues and that was updated this evening

Thoughts anyone?

C.S

yeah thats promising, I thought I was miles too far north but metcheck have snow as rar north as manchester, I thought metcheck used the gefs control, if it used gfs operational everywhere would be being predicted rain

Edited December 27, 2009 by mark forster 630

[La Bise]

Long dry cold period over a short snowy one anytime, the main component of winter is cold not snow plus with the amount of snows in the hills, if the weather stays cold, that stuff will simply not shift anytime soon so if you need a reminder how it looks like, get a pair of boots and go looking for it...

[Tim B]

Is trying to snow again here now, very small build-up forming.

[damianslaw]

Snow prospects for tuesday and wednesday are by no means assured at this stage, the front and associated low could saty just south of the region or consequently push much further north than is currently being forecast to affect the whole region (including Cumbria).

It does look rather marginal for lower ground with the 528 dam line just over Cumbria, places with height will have a much greater chance of seeing significant snowfall.

It will all become much clearer this time tomorrow just which parts of the region will be at greatest snow risk. The money at this stage would be Southern Pennines and Peak District, but as I said much of the Pennines and even the Lake District could see high risk.

Prospects for snow later in the week for the region don't look like great, not because of temps, but more due to the flow of air which will be north easterly and quite a slack one, Pennine areas will do best with one or two rogue showers making into eastern parts of the region and possibly in this neck of the woods.

One thing is sure and that it is a predominantly cold outlook for the foreseeable future.

[HotCuppa]

Overall an easterly is great if you happen to be living around Machester or near the pennines but I have yet to see any snow fall from any easterly in the last 20 odd years, it's all come from a southerly tracking lp with an artic northerly extending over our region. Perfect setup however as stated it can be quite wet snow at times. This winter we had our biggest snowfall from a s tracking lp and a n wind stream.

While everyone was getting excited over the prospects over the 31/1/2+ after looking at the models there where too many changes, but one over riding thing stuck, the lp when first seen on gfs was tracking clearly too far south, the runs have shown some variation that it could track north..but this lp is south tracking and I expect more aggreeance on the charts with this in the coming days.

We got sub zero temps tonight, but for the life of me, this incoming lp is going to be exrtremely marginal at best. Yes it will be cold, but will there be precip? Maybe to the extent of central midlands..we'll be left with any light showers if we are lucky. I haven't really seen anything that has really impressed me so far.

It's December its going to be cold, we are going to get overnight frosts, but this system isn't going to be it, wait til the new year and see what transpires. I can't see too many people responding here, because everything is up in the air to the extent that no one is entirely sure whats going to happen..but don't expect too many excited nwesterners posting just yet.

The current situ isn't favourable unless something exceptional occurs..wait till wednesday, thursday to get a bit more meat on the chart runs.

Just a quick update to this post. The low pressure does indeed appear to break into another 'twin' lp however this then fades and is absorbed back into the southerly tracking lp in the english channel ending up over se coast later on.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Good Morning All

Meto and BBC are now going for this snow band to reach as far North as Cumbria Tues/Wed

The Forecaster on the BBC this morning said the band could stall in NW England only slowly clearing

Wed afternoon

ATM i backing the UKMO

After today the next 48hrs are going to be very intresting indeed

C.S

[HotCuppa]

Good Morning All

Meto and BBC are now going for this snow band to reach as far North as Cumbria Tues/Wed

The Forecaster on the BBC this morning said the band could stall in NW England only slowly clearing

Wed afternoon

ATM i backing the UKMO

After today the next 48hrs are going to be very intresting indeed

C.S

Hi Cheshire snow, I was just commenting on the possibility of snow near the new year rather than this Tuesday. The meto have a warning out on Tuesday Lunchtime for heavy snow with some signifcant snow in the period on that day. If this was to happen it would be a very nice Birthday present, since it's my birthday tomorrow lol.

I haven't checked close range yet..I was looking more towards Dec 31/1/2+ rather than today and tomorrow.

Temp up from -3.5C to -0.2C in the past 1h 30 mins. Dewpoint is currently -1.4C

Time 7:35am Mon 28 Dec

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Hi Cheshire snow, I was just commenting on the possibility of snow near the new year rather than this Tuesday. The meto have a warning out on Tuesday Lunchtime for heavy snow with some signifcant snow in the period on that day. If this was to happen it would be a very nice Birthday present, since it's my birthday tomorrow lol.

I haven't checked close range yet..I was looking more towards Dec 31/1/2+ rather than today and tomorrow.

Happy Birthday for tomorrow LOL

Lets hope the METO are correct for tomorrow and we get that Snow could be some disruption if it

Comes of there are some strange Snow amounts been shown for Tues/Wed for example Met check

Have gone way over the top with upto 30cm predicted by them for Cheshire if and it wont but if that

Came off This part of the region would be snowed in until New Year,we strugled last week with only 5cm

LOL

C.S

[HotCuppa]

Happy Birthday for tomorrow LOL

Lets hope the METO are correct for tomorrow and we get that Snow could be some disruption if it

Comes of there are some strange Snow amounts been shown for Tues/Wed for example Met check

Have gone way over the top with upto 30cm predicted by them for Cheshire if and it wont but if that

Came off This part of the region would be snowed in until New Year,we strugled last week with only 5cm

LOL

C.S

Current Temp -0.3C

15 min temp trend 0.0 unchanged.

Dewpoint -1.4C

Pressure 1003.6 rising slowly

Wind ESE

Wind speed 1.0mph

Wind Gust 0.0mph

10 min trend 0.0mph

Thanks

Looks like the cold air stream gets firing up today, after having just seen the runs, it appears the uppers are after all going to be cold enough just. Looks like this stuff is going to be convective snowfall, meaning those closer to the coasts could get a real pasting from this 'if' this comes off. It does look like the northern midlands and North Wales are going to be hit by this snow, and as such the south of the region could very well be in the firing line from the snow.

I urge caution though because this still could be marginal at best, we'll know on the radar though when it starts to appear Now casting once again...be interesting to see what occurs tonight.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Okay so we do we go from here and who is correct GFS sticks two fingers up for Tues/Wed

However METO continue with the snow theme for Tues/Wed

Local NW Weather

[HotCuppa]

Okay so we do we go from here and who is correct GFS sticks two fingers up for Tues/Wed

However METO continue with the snow theme for Tues/Wed

Local NW Weather

To be perfectly honest I think it's a case of now casting. If today turns out to be a mild damp squib then we'll know the GFS was right, problem I am having is that its been terrible short range and as improved a bit medium to long range. I'd find it hard to believe the GFS close range at the moment. That just leaves the Meto, and thats a big gamble to take when we have seen the meto be wrong numerous times before. This is why I am using now casting, just seems to me everything close range is pretty unreliable at the moment, nothing seems to like the cold. If it was the GFS stating this I would question it. I haven't been a fan of this model output at all.

I am using the deaded word marginal at best at the moment. If things don't start breaking down today across the region then the GFS will be right, most people are plumping for the GFS including this site..the BBC and Meto are sticking together no shock there then and going for the snow.

Regardless I think its going to be pretty cold out there, the side affect will be if it gets too cold it won't snow we know pretty much that has been the case before now and it could happen again.

Light to moderate rain turning to sleet overnight, during the first half of the morning more organised bands of snow arrive giving heavier more persistant snow especially to the northern welsh mountains and surrounding areas including cheshire, merseyside and the greater parts of lancashire, yorkshire, humberside et al. Could be the east coast gets the pasting and we get nothing from this. :/

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[HotCuppa]

If it reaches Cumbria, any snow that Cheshire sees will be well washed away by then. I think the threat of genuine snow that doesn't quickly disappear is now reserved for Southern Scotland and the Eastern areas later in the week.

I think we need to take the BBC forecast with a pinch of salt...here is why. Because the whole setup is extremely marginal at best, I doubt the upper colder air will arrive in time for this snow to affect NW regions. More likely as you suggested, reserved for southern scotland (turning out to be the perfect setup for those in that area)and the east (and coast)

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[martinj2]

I think we need to take the BBC forecast with a pinch of salt...here is why. Because the whole setup is extremely marginal at best, I doubt the upper colder air will arrive in time for this snow to affect NW regions. More likely as you suggested, reserved for southern scotland (turning out to be the perfect setup for those in that area)and the east (and coast)

So what do you see happening to us here in S.Liverpool mate?