North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

I will be heading back to Norwich on the train on 5 January (assuming that it isn't cancelled) which should be - ahem - quite interesting...

As a result I may miss out on the largest snow depths as I expect temperatures to be low enough for continued accumulations, even near the coast with an onshore wind, from the 5th January until whenever the high sink over us- the other side of the coin is that the NE'lys should see the heaviest showers transfer to East Anglia as the high sinks.

The most I've seen since February 1994 is 8cm, as I was away in Lancaster on the two occasions when 10cm was reached or exceeded at Cleadon (30 January 2003, 28 February 2004). There is a genuine chance of topping that before I leave for Norwich, especially considering that the last shower settled already.

[Alex95]

Damn im gutted no snow this morning but my dad has come back from work and his store manager lives just outside of sunderland and they have 3inches of snow apparently.

I doubt there is 3 inches, 3cm perhaps.

[Geordiesnow]

Convection will indeed continue overnight, irrespective of what the GFS Precipitation shows- it usually underdoes shower activity in these circumstances. Shower activity will become increasingly confined to the east coast tomorrow, before temporarily moving out into the North Sea on Saturday but then coming straight back in again. Chance of snow showers for the foreseeable future, until the high eventually topples in from the NW somewhere around the 8th-10th January.

It's amazing that I'm able to write something like this and genuinely feel that it's the most likely scenario.

What you say is true but so far, the GFS looks more accurate than the beeb's forecasts at the moment it has to be said. If the beeb forecasts was true, you would think the shower frequency would be higher than just 2 showers since around 6:30AM.

I wonder if the high cloud is lowering instability a little bit hence the showery activity seems more limited than expected. As we know and hate, high cloud stops convection taking place over land in the summer months, i just wonder if a similar thing occurs in winter albeit over sea and not land.

If we can get rid of this annoying high cloud, it may increase instability therefore more showers appearing on the radar.

[Thundery wintry showers]

High cloud probably has an effect but not as pronounced as it does in the summer. There were frequent heavy showers and local thunder over the Durham area over the previous two days despite more extensive high cloud than we have today.

Already some signs of a thinning of the high cloud to the NE, where I can see some blue sky, and the radar shows more shower activity coming towards us though not as heavy as the one just after 9am.

What I do find surprising is the lack of shower activity to the south of this area.

[Hagler]

plenty here Kieth.

bus stuck on the a68 outside the club lol.

It was dodgy coming into work this morning up until you got to the other side of Dipton, not looking forward to the drive home.

[Snowstorm1]

High cloud probably has an effect but not as pronounced as it does in the summer. There were frequent heavy showers and local thunder over the Durham area over the previous two days despite more extensive high cloud than we have today.

Already some signs of a thinning of the high cloud to the NE, where I can see some blue sky, and the radar shows more shower activity coming towards us though not as heavy as the one just after 9am.

What I do find surprising is the lack of shower activity to the south of this area.

Yep im not getting anything

[Alex95]

This chart has made my day - 43mm on the Tyne + Wear Coast. That would equate to about 43cm of snow.

Edited December 31, 2009 by alza

[Geordiesnow]

What I do find surprising is the lack of shower activity to the south of this area.

Again, the GFS appears to have this one spot on over the UKMO and i don't mean just today charts but yesterdays charts aswell. But having saying that, GFS did had slightly stronger PPN on yesterday charts than today i recall.

Just one observation whilst on the subject of high clouds and how it may affect convective activity, the cloud tops were much lower during the shower around 9:30 than they were earlier on as there was a nice cloud top over a shower that hit the Sunderland/Durham area and skies were fairly clear.

Anyways, another shower cloud appears to be on the horizon, albeit with a low cloud top. I would imagine these would rise when this high cloud does finally goes.

[Methuselah]

Okay peeps - this should be a link to a new thread???