East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 18

[Cableguy]

That is just a safe guard statement to b honest. I anticipate the ppn will make it's way S/SE on Thurs/Fri where there will be snow.

I fully expect it to stay green here, just like it did last week(looks like we will get a lot of rain though).

[BucksSnow]

havent been on for a while due to christmas guys but what do you reckon for snow in high wycombe tommorow

[MAF]

That is just a safe guard statement to b honest. I anticipate the ppn will make it's way S/SE on Thurs/Fri where there will be snow.

well i hope you are right. i for one am more of a watch and wait viewer of the weather. i truly believe there are some people who think that the models dictate the weather and stick by it 100% thus i never believe a forecast past 3 days and then only 50% from 3-5 days. so, as i say, lets hope the PPN is snow into the new year.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It is to be expected that confidence will be low for the end of the week, bearing in mind there is still a knife edge applying to the exact snow zone that will be arrving within the next 24 hrs!

I think that Ian's post highlights the suggestion by both ECM and GEM of the low moving south/south east of our area and allowing the sub -5 air to arrive and there still being ppn around to fall as snow in many southern regions. Look at the t96 to t120 frames on both models and the suggestion is clearly there. Also beyond this, a cold NE'erly airstream to follow, has snow showers written all over it for many parts of this region. Yes, it is a little way off yet - but the possibility is very clearly there.

Edited December 28, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[yamkin]

Are you all sitting down? Hope so as Joe B from AccuWeather has just updated his European Blog...........

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW SHIFTING SOUTH

Here is part of his blog...........Enjoy

The UKMET is considerably farther north than the European on this, which shifts to the main threat to southern England, including the threat of heavy, disruptive snow around London. It bothers me in looking at the map this morning, that sneaky chilly air has pushed into southeast England and an adjustment south in the storm track is needed. How much is still a question, but it does appear there is a threat for heavy snow before the core of cold presses south. The opening week of the New Year, and this is what this post and the one before are mere offshoots of, the idea over a week ago, is going to be very cold across much of Europe north of 40 north, probably harsher than a) the December outbreak and last year's cold outbreak.

Edited December 28, 2009 by yamkin

[cj114]

Have just read Joe B's latest forecast and he concurs with Ian on this.

Best get some shopping in, also order some Ski's in the sales!!

Or our New Year celebrations could be a bit muted this year!

Yamkin beat me to it. lol

Edited December 28, 2009 by cj114

[danm]

I think to avoid any disappointment, just expect it to rain here until thursday/friday and then hopefully as the winds swing round to E/NE we'll get the snow.

[Ben_Cambs]

An interesting and hopefully snowy New Year in prospect. Tomorrows situation is more of a nowcast, it is going to be a very marginal event. Places North of the M4 corridor (North of London) have a good chance of seeing snow, the more north and west the better. The LP looks like swinging back into our region on Wednesday/Thursday bringing the threat of snow. We will have to see how it pans out over the next 72 hours.

Its nice to see people posting again!

[Jayces]

I for one am not going to get to excited about an event 4 days away.

Remember Yamkin the last warning Croydon got for I thnk 15cm of snow and then it turned out to be 5cm. It still brought Croydon to standstill but that warning was a few hours before and still not rigth so take an event 4 days away with a pinch of salt.

I love the snow and hope we do get a dumping for the new year but am not going to take any threat seriously until Thursday.

[Ruislipredbee]

I know someone who works at Heathrow airport and they are expecting heavy snow all day Tues then thurs into Friday, this has all come about this afternoon as he has been put on standby to work early in the morning to clear the runways etc...

[Ben_Cambs]

I expect the BBC graphics to change as the MET are sticking with the PPN movement, which is much further north than the BBC predictions

GFS snow depth charts show snowfall north of M4 corridor lol

Edited December 28, 2009 by Snowman0697

[rmc1987]

I think to avoid any disappointment, just expect it to rain here until thursday/friday and then hopefully as the winds swing round to E/NE we'll get the snow.

Quite, I agree with this, flooding is our threat!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Good news from GFS 12z is that the low is further south, in 2 runs the low has been positioned about 120 miles further south than the runs previous to that.

[jennyjane]

Just to show how temperatues an weather can be decieving, Southernman and I went for a walk round Great Yarmouh town centre this lunchtime, we were remarking how pleasant the weather was, as the winter sun was shining and there was little breeze, we weren't cold at all.

However at around 1.30pm we were startled to notice a car in the backroads which obviously had not been been driven today and which still had thick fern formation ice on the windcreen.

We had thought it too warm for this, and presumed all the ice would have melted in todays weather.

[rmc1987]

I know someone who works at Heathrow airport and they are expecting heavy snow all day Tues then thurs into Friday, this has all come about this afternoon as he has been put on standby to work early in the morning to clear the runways etc...

I bet it won't snow all day Tuesday.....where they've got that from god knows! I can understand being on standby but a waste when there's little threat...!

[Cableguy]

I know someone who works at Heathrow airport and they are expecting heavy snow all day Tues then thurs into Friday, this has all come about this afternoon as he has been put on standby to work early in the morning to clear the runways etc...

really cannot see that happening!

[yamkin]

I know someone who works at Heathrow airport and they are expecting heavy snow all day Tues then thurs into Friday, this has all come about this afternoon as he has been put on standby to work early in the morning to clear the runways etc...

I wonder if what you are referring to is what Joe B from AccuWeather is commenting on. Here's part of his blog:

The UKMET is considerably farther north than the European on this, which shifts to the main threat to southern England, including the threat of heavy, disruptive snow around London. It bothers me in looking at the map this morning, that sneaky chilly air has pushed into southeast England and an adjustment south in the storm track is needed. How much is still a question, but it does appear there is a threat for heavy snow before the core of cold presses south. The opening week of the New Year, and this is what this post and the one before are mere offshoots of, the idea over a week ago, is going to be very cold across much of Europe north of 40 north, probably harsher than a) the December outbreak and last year's cold outbreak.

[MAF]

A nice new thread to discuss the possible snow into the new year is here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59251-east-anglia-south-east-cold-spell-discussion-part-19/

Enjoy!!

[Methuselah]

I'll close this now. Thanks MAF...