South Central England Cold Spell Discussion

[David-kig]

dew points line the -5 looks 2 be just over south east england proberly y

[Joneseye]

by the looks of the radar its moving into hampshire now

It is heading gradually southwards and looks to be intensifying as it does so, but still some way short of moderate and medium at this time. The radar image I posted was zoomed in on my current location so Newbury M4 area postcode RG14 2QU. The Net-Weather radar is worth every penny and is far superior to the freebies out there like Meteo and the Met Office IMO.

Snow is starting to settle here... but remember this is very much unexpected and I would classify as the Canape or Hors D'eurve!

Let's hope the main course is an American sized portion and not Haute Cuisine! lol

Edited December 16, 2009 by Joneseye

[SunnySouthCoast]

Almost completely clouded over here now, temp now at 2C (36F)

[coxxy22]

Almost completely clouded over here now, temp now at 2C (36F)

yeah if ya look to the north you can see the darker cloud rolling in almost ontop of us now

[Reading FC]

Fizzling out now and more sleety looks like turning to rain anytime soon. Left a VERY light dusting but nice to see some big flakes coming down - just the starter!

[Stargazer]

Started snowing about 20 minutes ago here at work in Basingstoke, and it's settling too. We also had a few flakes yesterday evening about 5.30 as I was leaving work.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Stargazer

[PompeyFC]

shame that 06z is actually a slight downgrade in terms of snow potential for Friday and Saturday for the south coast

[Joneseye]

Snow petering out here now as the heavier precip moves south away from here along with the area of lower dew points.

Interesting to note that the overlays on the Netweather radar show a temp of 0C here with similar or slightly lower dew points of 0C or -1. Combine that with upper air temps (850s) of between -3C and -4C with light precip and we have snow. Just goes to show how difficult it is to predict the white stuff as one would expect that we would need heavier precip and lower upper air temps to see anything white falling out of the sky.

[coram]

Same here in West Berks - what is your location Coram and welcome!

Odiham.

Light snow now falling steadily with a dusting on the grass. The temperature at 11am was -0.3 (-1.0 at 10am). In order to get anything significant (1-2cm) before it turns to sleet/rain, then it needs to happen in the next couple of hours.

[pinkertonsurly]

Light snow in Winchester has been falling for about ten minutes - and settling.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Light snow in Winchester has been falling for about ten minutes - and settling.

Some nice big flakes in there! I just been flashing around like papparatzie lol. With camera of course ;-) Looks promising for us til the weekend now. Yippeeeeeeeeeeee.

[stewfox]

Some nice big flakes in there! I just been flashing around like papparatzie lol. With camera of course ;-) Looks promising for us til the weekend now. Yippeeeeeeeeeeee.

Still moderate snow in reading

[kold weather]

Nice band of precio heading down towards where I stay at term time, Chichester, will be interesting to see what the reports are from that neck of the woods in the next hour or so, the strength of the band may well help out and be in the favour of CS.

[PompeyFC]

starting to snow in Fareham, bang on the south coast

[SunnySouthCoast]

Still nothing in Southsea..

[TG312274]

I have it on very good authority (the Facebook status updates of quite a few of my friends that there's been snow in the last hour or so in the Farnborough/Aldershot/Farnham area.

[tcc]

Moderate snow falling here!

[Uncle_Barty]

Some flakes of snow here at Bournemouth airport.

Not expecting it to last or stay as snow due to the warmer uppers coming in from the north. Temp 3.3, dp -0.7 at home in Bournemouth so very marginal as it is.

[madge]

has been snowing very light over Salisbury plain for the last hour!

[ademlc69]

Moderate Snow Southampton.BRING IT ON!

[Evo]

Looking at the UKMO-NAE output, the snow this morning is not totally unexpected.

I've had a spare hour to lose before a fun filled day dealing with whinging customers. So, here's my analysis for our region based on the 6z UKMO-NAE. I've focussed on some of the parameters from John Holmes' "Will it snow guide".

Looking at thicknesses for 500-100hPa:

Sub 528dam covering south east of a line from Lyme Regis to the Wash initially.

Higher thicknesses move in as the low sweeps down the North Sea such that by 6pm only Kent really has air with a thickness below 528dam.

As the low sweeps South, the colder air moves in from a North East direction, bring sub-528dam air back to all of England and Wales, except for the far South West, by 9am tomorrow. That remains through to the end of the model run at 6am Friday. Only North West Scotland and Central Ireland Westwards remain in air above 528dam.

Looking at 2m temperatures:

South of a line from Bristol to the Wash, largely below 0 at 6am this morning and widely below freezing until mid-day. Warming up to 3-4c as the low moves South. Staying that way for us until the low clears away and by 6am Friday we're looking at -2 to -3 in our region.

850 temperatures:

Starting off at -5 to -6 this morning and rising slightly as the low sweeps south. Staying below zero throughout though. Steadily falling as the colder air works in and by Friday morning we're looking at -10 to -11 at the 850 level.

850-500 thickness:

Starting off between 1290 and 1300, with the lower thicknesses South East of a line from Weymouth to Norfolk. These thicknesses increase as the low moves South in the same way as the 500-100 thicknesses above. Sub 1290 thicknesses move back in Thursday and cover most of the region by mid-day. By midnight, the whole region is covered with thicknesses below 1280dam.

Precipitation:

A small amount falling pretty much anywhere, with larger amounts of preciptation in the North East corner of the region. No significant amounts though, likely to be mainly light to moderate showers. There's a chance of anyone in the region catching a shower throughout, however the more North East you are in the region, the higher the chance.

Summary:

Staying cold. Becoming colder from Thursday onwards. A chance of a shower anywhere, with more showers likely in the North East of the region. Conditions initially conducive to light sleet and slow showers this morning, especially on higher ground but those mostly turning to drizzle by the afternoon. Probably staying widely above freezing overnight tonight with isolated showers of drizzle in the North East and some mist throughout the region. From mid-day tomorrow onwards, any precipitation will be increasingly turning to snow, and by Friday morning I think snow anywhere rather than rain or sleet, save for a few areas right on the coast. Precipitation totals look small for this period but some areas may get a light accumulation of snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

Still nothing in Southsea..

yep i agree and im very unhappy with the model output although this is snow heaven for everybody else in the uk,

we get the milder crap by mon tues while the rest get a white christmas.

i was hoping this would be special to be very honest we just live in the wrong place at the wrong time aswell,

if it had been the 80s then it was regular for us to see blizzards.

but still good luck to the rest of the uk and europe .

but on the plus side atleast its happening.

strat is due to warm but the polar vortex will soon no longer be split i dunno if this is good or bad,

but talk of a return to winter in january.

and to top it off the solar activty is kicking ass now.

so overall if your looking for a winter break try the sunny south coast always a place to go to escape the arctic freeze lol.

[kold weather]

Yep seems like it should be cold enough for snow in Chichester as well, looks the cold air was far enough west and strong enough to allow the leading edge of the front to be of snow tohugh its starting to struggle in terms of its southwards push, the snow probably won't be long lasting though as the time of day isn't all that favourable, saying that given it seems to have slowed down somewhat the leading edge may last longer.

[MR EXTREMES]

and just as i said that its snowing its a flurry

[SunnySouthCoast]

Snowing now in Southsea too!!