Welsh Cold Spell Discussion

[J10]

Thanks for you're thoughts Jackone. I agree with most, with just one exception regarding the snow showers in the NW'erly. My experiance with these is that only the north of Wales do well as the showers filter down the Cheshire gap. NW England could get a pasting.

Personally, I hope when the breakdown does occur it comes from the south or SW as Jan '82, this I think gives my location its best chance of a significant snow event in this type of set up.

We have done very well this century from NW Winds, with 4 inches on Christmas Day 2001.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120011226.gif

Another 4 inches of snow on 26 February 2004, which did admittedly thaw very quickly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120040226.gif

Another 1 inch on Christmas Day 2004

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120041225.gif

About 4 inches on 25th November 2005

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120051125.gif

Another 4 inches on 1st March 2006

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060301.gif

After the initial easterly of February 2009, this brief northerly gave 2-3 inches snow topup.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090207.gif

IMO for my area, a cold NNW is the most prolific snow getter over the past decade, with most of the heavy snowfalls coming from such a setup.

However, this is not always the case, and especially over recent years, such setups have not always delivered, indeed at times I have said in similar threads like this in the past we might see snow from such a setup only for it not to deliver.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yes a northwesterly works best here, we have done very well over the past few years from heavy showers brushing in from the irish sea to affect west wales. We normally get a good covering of snow when this happens. Lets hope this is the case by the weekend!

[TonyH]

Hint of sleet in the drizzle this afternoon.

Got a feeling many of us will be pleasantly surprised by a snowfall or two over the next week or so! Certainly have done well over recent winters with surprise and heavy falls in less conducive set ups (i.e.briefer and less cold spells than this would look like turning into). Snow events will, I feel crop up at a day or less notice, and should lie in many parts until the eventual thaw comes (later next week?).

[Snowyowl9]

Snow thursday early morning from this slack low coming in from the east/NE 18z run.

http://www3.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/60_30.gif

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

GFS 18Z continues to show a period rain/sleet/snow moving through Wales on Thursday:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Colder air is flowing in behind it so there is at least a chance of some seeing falling snow, though accumulations would be restricted to the hills:

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Again a front is shown coming down from the north on Sunday on the 18Z, so perhaps some frontal snow with accumulations for elevated areas possible

Hopefully we can get some snow out of this setup in the next 7-10days or so, best keep watching

Jamie

[J10]

GFS 18Z continues to show a period rain/sleet/snow moving through Wales on Thursday:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Colder air is flowing in behind it so there is at least a chance of some seeing falling snow, though accumulations would be restricted to the hills:

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Again a front is shown coming down from the north on Sunday on the 18Z, so perhaps some frontal snow with accumulations for elevated areas possible

Hopefully we can get some snow out of this setup in the next 7-10days or so, best keep watching

Jamie

I think accumulations are more than possible down to quite low levels, especially over the weekend.

[derby4life]

hi guy's we are meant to be karting at Cerrigydrudion on thursday for our xmas works do ....doesn't look good it as its an outside track

[KTtom]

'Cerrigydrudion' where the heck is that?? Not Ceredigion by any chance?? Probably very cold and dry is my bet.

Jackone, I certainly agree with the setups you show, I did pretty well with those here as well. We do need a westerly tinge to a northerly otherwise its only the north and Pembrokeshire gets it. The progged NW'ely has nore of a westerly aspect than those you posted and is nowhere near as intense but we shall see. ECM has the sort of charts which exite me for next week.

[risk of sleet]

hi guy's we are meant to be karting at Cerrigydrudion on thursday for our xmas works do ....doesn't look good it as its an outside track

Wear the fox hat.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

GFS 06Z still shows the potential for some snow during the early hours of Thursday.

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

The colder air coming in behind it should help turn the rain to snow.

The 06z GFS doesnt make much of it but the risk its still there.

Reading the Metoffice update for Wales early this morning and it doesn't mention much in the way of snow for us, perhaps something on Wednesday.

[Snowyowl9]

Better bump the welsh thread up as it`s near the bottom of the page.

Quite a mild start early today with a north wind 5.3c max last night,now since the wind has turned to the east it`s got colder at 3c lots of thick fog and drizzle.

SE are getting all the cold air yet but bring that east wind on it`ll get bitter.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn067.png

Went about 20 miles west of here today and there was no hill fog and dry with even a few pathes of blue sky.

Snow is within sniffing distant,temps tonight getting down.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1817.png

[Jayfromcardiff]

Better bump the welsh thread up as it`s near the bottom of the page.

Quite a mild start early today with a north wind 5.3c max last night,now since the wind has turned to the east it`s got colder at 3c lots of thick fog and drizzle.

SE are getting all the cold air yet but bring that east wind on it`ll get bitter.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn067.png

Went about 20 miles west of here today and there was no hill fog and dry with even a few pathes of blue sky.

Snow is within sniffing distant,temps tonight getting down.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1817.png

Hi mate what are our chances of snow?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

That snow risk is still there for early hours of Thursday on the GFS 12Z:

http://charts.netwea.../uksnowrisk.png

Best chances of snow in East Wales for that one.

Late Thursday into Friday:

http://charts.netwea...2/60/ukprec.png

If only that would come further west

Saturday and Sunday stands our best chance of seeing some snow showers from the NW flow and perhaps even frontal snow if temperatures remain low enough.

[swales]

Sunday/Monday could be quite well if our dreams come true? 12z

[Jayfromcardiff]

Lol, so much hype but mostly for the Eastern side of England.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just seen them charts for Monday, id certainly take that.

Long way to go though and more changes to come but i think our chances of some snow stand quite high for the weekend.

[derby4life]

Wear the fox hat.

its about 10 mile east along the A5 from Betws-y-Coed ....and yes it is the right way to spell it ...although you could do this Cerrig-y-drudion

anyways its been canceled cheers

Edited December 15, 2009 by derby4life

[Snowmadsam]

looking good for w=south western wales on fri, sat,sun and mon

on GFS 12Z

[J10]

After the horror show for snow lovers of the GFS 06Hz, a far more positive 12Hz run, and could be very good for us, however that fact the GFS 06Hz happened is still a concern.

[Cymro]

Well things have improved a little today for our prospects here in Wales, Especially, Carms, Swansea, Pembs and Cardigan and maybe the north Wales coast if troughs aline themselves over the weekend. Believe it or not had sleet today was a pleasant suprise

[The Weather Dragon]

Looking good for South West Wales during the weekend - Troughs running in on a NNW from the Irish Sea

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Welsh Weather wasnt so promising if your after snow, mentioning cold and frost for the weekend.

Suppose not much point in saying any detail anyway as its highly likely to change.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif < ECM 12Z - Increasing risk of snow showers i think

[swales]

Welsh Weather wasnt so promising if your after snow, mentioning cold and frost for the weekend.

Suppose not much point in saying any detail anyway as its highly likely to change.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif < ECM 12Z - Increasing risk of snow showers i think

Pfft, don't listen to Welsh weather! Make your predictions from the charts :blink:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Pfft, don't listen to Welsh weather! Make your predictions from the charts :unsure:

Lol Going to keep watching the weekend closely its going to be our best shot at some snow.

Best bet would be what the GFS 12Z shows and the ECM is good aswel. Caution is needed though we could just end up with frost.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png < GFS 12Z for saturday with some snow showers around.

Edited December 15, 2009 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[Cymro]

We must admit mind what a poor shot this cold spell has been? night minima hasn't been that low due to cloud cover it's not that special compared to the snowfest we were all looking forward too on Friday.