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Welsh Cold Spell Discussion

shuggee

By shuggee
in Spring Weather Discussion

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shuggee Maestro

shuggee

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
Posted

Please use this thread to have a good old chat about the prospects for something wintry in Wales :)

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Looks like we could see snow in the higher ground of S.Wales looking a tthe 12z GFS this eveing as the rain comes down. Temps are marginal but obviously height will help. Time its arriving at also helps as dew points look like they are progged to be down to about 0C...

I suspect this thread will be quite busy by the weekend

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loadsa Newbie

loadsa

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
Posted

Looks like we could see snow in the higher ground of S.Wales looking a tthe 12z GFS this eveing as the rain comes down. Temps are marginal but obviously height will help. Time its arriving at also helps as dew points look like they are progged to be down to about 0C...

I suspect this thread will be quite busy by the weekend

According to the 12z we could have snow as early as wednesday on the precipitation chart

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A-Dizzle Rookie

A-Dizzle

Posted
  • Location: Abertillery, Blaenau Gwent (230M ASL)
  • Location: Abertillery, Blaenau Gwent (230M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Hoping for some snow here over the next few days! biggrin.gif

Edited by AlexWilliams123
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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Only a risk of a few wintry showers by thursday and friday, apart from that it looks dry and very cold

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willitbsunny Newbie

willitbsunny

Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
Posted

Only a risk of a few wintry showers by thursday and friday, apart from that it looks dry and very cold

Yes, local television & radio seems to be going for this scenario too......pity

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Yes, local television & radio seems to be going for this scenario too......pity

Oh well, im looking forward to very cold weather from Thursday onwards, with or without the snow!

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SnowStorm(Jamie) Contributor

SnowStorm(Jamie)

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
Posted

A chance of some snow on Thursday for Mid and North Wales:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Brecon Beacons would do well out of that i think.

Then comes the chance of a Northerly on the weekend with a front coming down as shown by the GFS 12Z:

http://charts.netwea...airpressure.png

Most of Wales would likely see a spell of snow out of that if it were to happen.

But looking at the UKMO 12Z the Northely is not as potent as the GFS.

Im not so sure but i think in these situations the front tends to decay over the mountains of mid Wales.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?14-17 < UKMO 144 Chart.

The weekend is a while off anyway so more changes to come.

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Jamie. Newbie

Jamie.

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
Posted

Hope we get some snow fall here in the next few Days!

Darn it for living so far west :cc_confused:.

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Well im hoping to get some snow here in Bridgend, but im not sure if we will, would be be to low down at 72meters and too far south to get any snow?

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swales Apprentice

swales

Posted
  • Location: Llanelli
  • Location: Llanelli
Posted

Well im hoping to get some snow here in Bridgend, but im not sure if we will, would be be to low down at 72meters and too far south to get any snow?

None for you this evening for sure...

Not sure about the outlook... some wintry showers I suppose later on in the week.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

Well im hoping to get some snow here in Bridgend, but im not sure if we will, would be be to low down at 72meters and too far south to get any snow?

saturday night looks our best bet,with a cold front moving south could produce a fewcms, with a cold north by north west wind tucking in behind the front,with sleet or snow showers behind the front.Even monday 21st we could still get wintry showers.
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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted (edited)

Wel dyw hi ddim yn argoeli mor dda a ni yma i ni yng Nghymru serch hynny dwi'n ffyddiog cawn ni eira dydd mercher os rhyw mymryn mae'n rhywbeth.

Well it doesn't look good for us here in Wales besides that I am hopefull that we will have some snow on wensday even if it's a ittle it's something.

Edited by adamjones416
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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

saturday night looks our best bet,with a cold front moving south could produce a fewcms, with a cold north by north west wind tucking in behind the front,with sleet or snow showers behind the front.Even monday 21st we could still get wintry showers.

I shall look foward to saturday night then! fingers crossed we will get some snow then!

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted

Light rain here at 3.4c now.

Must say these are some strange charts especially tomorrow.

Rain I would say.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

It`s this low I still looking forward too with colder air but still not much in the way of an east wind until the low moves west.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Here is my take on the situation at the current time and I will update regularly and hopefully, one of the forecast may be right. :whistling:

Tonight is likely to be damp and drizzly temps around 2-3c with no real chance of any wintriness.

Tomorrow a similar theme, but with a slight chance of some wintriness later into Wednesday.

The models are currently forecasting a Low Pressure system for Wednesday into Thursday and this gives a very realistic chance of snow to many, especially with thickness levels tending to reduce overnight into Thursday.

Following this, conditions become more favourable in terms of temperatures for snow, but precipitation may well be restricted to troughs which can be difficult to determine at this stage.

Into the weekend, and the NW wind forecast is looking extremely favourable for many parts of Wales especially in the west, heavy and perhaps frequent snow showrs, however this is still a long way off. GFS and ECM (tonight's 12 Hz is a stunner) keep the NW flow going.

So expectations Chance of snow into Wednesday, odds against.

Into Thursday, rain turning to snow, and on current models, accumulations possible in places.

Thursday/Friday light scattered wintry to snow showers, but without troughs to pep up flow not many getting this far west.

Over weekend, snow showers seem likely to give accumulations in prone spots, with chance of more general frontal snow at times.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted (edited)

Thanks for you're thoughts Jackone. I agree with most, with just one exception regarding the snow showers in the NW'erly. My experiance with these is that only the north of Wales do well as the showers filter down the Cheshire gap. NW England could get a pasting.

Personally, I hope when the breakdown does occur it comes from the south or SW as Jan '82, this I think gives my location its best chance of a significant snow event in this type of set up.

Edited by KTtom
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swales Apprentice

swales

Posted
  • Location: Llanelli
  • Location: Llanelli
Posted

Thanks for the input Jackone, look forward to hearing more in good time.

Only time will tell the story, so let's look forward to what's to come but not get our hopes up to much :good:

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Thanks for that Jack One, but like i said before, i would be happy with just a few flurries out of this cold spell, anything more though would be very nice!

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Snow Bringer Newbie

Snow Bringer

Posted
  • Location: Neath, South Wales
  • Location: Neath, South Wales
Posted

As other have already said, thanks Jackone for your thoughts with regard to weather patterns for this area. I'm not that far from your location :(.

Not much of a poster more of a lurker, but find it very useful in my line of work especially being self employed to be able to try and plan for weather as most of my work involves working outside.

I'm always very busy at this time of because everyone wants their stuff installed before xmas ( no I'm not Father Christmas before any one asks. :( ) so the weather can have a massive impact on being able facilitate that.

Personally loving the current weather pattern especially now I'm not getting soaked every day. Cold and frosty will do me just fine but and snow would be an added bonus.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Thanks for that Jack One, but like i said before, i would be happy with just a few flurries out of this cold spell, anything more though would be very nice!

Of course there are no guarantees we will get anything in terms of snow, but some harsh frosts and very cold temps are also likely, with the chance of ice days well at least away from the coast.

I will try to keep updating this and it will be interesting to see how those charts change in forthcoming days.

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted (edited)

Had some light sleet this morning was visible and not just on the windscreen upper air was around -4c

Not surprising rain now with this mild sector heading straight for us and shortwave.

http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rmgfs122.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9
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