East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Rich44]

Down to 5.2C now and it feels bitterly cold out there. I'm still happy with the way things are going I don't think it's time to get knickers in a knot about the breakdown when the main event isn't even here and wasn't even really supposed to be here till Thursday anyway.

I think people should follow my example and relax with a glass or two of something nicely alcoholic (and warming) I shall be doing so with some brandy tonight once the kids are asleep

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

by that 12z GFS run we really should see something out on the coast of Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk but inland not so sure, but by late Saturday/Sunday most places 'fingers crossed' should see some more continuous snow fro a cold front heading southwards and by the time it gets down to our neck of the woods it might comwe to a grinding hault, and who knows maybe an inch or two, a certain website sees this as moderate to heavy in nature.

[essex coast matt]

Fairly boring day here weather wise today mix of clouds and some brightness had a slight frost 1st thing, max temp 6c at around 2pm, 3c now at 5.40pm, at the moment friday looks best day for sleet or snow here think

[VillagePlank]

Three gritting lorries out tonight between M25, and J3/M2 (which isn't very far - perhaps 12 miles) - and my office heating has packed up. Cold=bad, this time around, I think

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just the one UKMO chart at +144hrs that may cause a breakdown, but the low could easily go further South and increase the likely hood of snow. Anyways its in FI (Fantasy Island) and probably change several times again in future chart runs.

The UKMO is interesting. It looks to me that it will head that low into France and might have some snow on its northern edge which could brush our region, especially southern most counties. But all this is too far out atm and there is plenty to happen before next week .

[bunny1972]

think we will all be disapointed hear in the east north sea far to warm for snow hope im wrong but not looking good

[ickledoozer]

It is currently raining in MK, temp around 4 degrees, pretty much what I expected.

In terms of the models it is worth remembering that it is going to be cold as expected, probably turning colder from tomorrow onwards, the goal posts will always move with each run, models are open to interpretation, and snow is very difficult to predict even 24/36 hours in advance.

At the least, we will get a welcome break from wet and windy westerlies, which is lovely!

Doozer

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

think we will all be disapointed hear in the east north sea far to warm for snow hope im wrong but not looking good

What makes you think that?

[bunny1972]

What makes you think that?

av been let down to many times over past few years sea temps to warm my temps and dew points to high for snow

[East Herts Snow]

The UKMO is interesting. It looks to me that it will head that low into France and might have some snow on its northern edge which could brush our region, especially southern most counties. But all this is too far out atm and there is plenty to happen before next week .

...and GEM at the same timescale (+144) has a different outcome and looks a real Jem!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

and JMA at the same timescale (although a lesser model)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1

Basically its too far into the future to know will happen.

However I think ECM tonight maybe a crucial run. ECM charts roll out between 6pm and 7pm.

Edited December 14, 2009 by North Londoner

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

By Friday we should have -10 850hpa uppers along the coast, the warmth of the sea will moderate things slightly but we will be on the right side of marginal, probably no warmer than about 2c and falling in any showers, as mentioned Friday into Saturday and Sunday look our best chance of snow and then it's a question of how long the cold can last into the xmas period.

[Rich44]

think we will all be disapointed hear in the east north sea far to warm for snow hope im wrong but not looking good

Sea temps wouldn't affect inland as far as Beccles I wouldn't have thought it'd be more likely to affect the coastal towns themselves. anyway looking at the temps and the source of the cold I personally don't think the sea temps are necessarily a killer

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

av been let down to many times over past few years sea temps to warm my temps and dew points to high for snow

As long as the sea track of any activity isn't too long the higher SSTS may be a good thing in terms of stimulating convection, plus the 850 hPa temps might well get low enough to counteract any effect of higher dewpoints.

[Tim Bland]

Have some sleet mix into the rain here already. Meteo group percip type on my iphone says sleet on the SE endge of the rainband already and shows snow in northern counties from 10pm onwards. I think the Chilterns around to Hemmel will do well and up to Milton Keynes / Bedford area.

[Brassmonkeylily]

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

James

I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

...and GEM at the same timescale (+144) has a different outcome and looks a real Jem!

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Basically its too far into the future to know will happen.

However I think ECM tonight maybe a crucial run. ECM charts roll out between 6pm and 7pm.

Yes also - The GEM has a trough feature tracking westwards across our region on Fri which could well give some more prolonged snow if it verified and other models pick it up

[jennyjane]

I walked home from work tonight with no scarf or gloves there was no breeze and I was disappointed how warm it was, not like the previous couple days when I have been frozen walking home.

[Brassmonkeylily]

I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here 260 metres and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

[Southender]

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

James

I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

A Thames Streamer. Yes please. After the quite unusual one of last Feb, where we missed out in the Southend area. Which is unheard of in Thames Streamer situations.

Edited December 14, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[bunny1972]

I walked home from work tonight with no scarf or gloves there was no breeze and I was disappointed how warm it was, not like the previous couple days when I have been frozen walking home.

like you we seem to have our own weather here on east coast dont you think

[Tim Bland]

I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here 260 metres and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

Think you are just to the SW of the front tonight I'm afraid. Plenty of opporunities to come though.

[HighPressure]

I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

I am just down the road from you, troughs coming down the Eastern side tend to fizzle out over Kent although as high up as you are you tend to pick up a bit of a dusting from these. But what we really need is these Thames streamers that gave us a real pounding in Feb.

[Tn9]

Latest meto observations have Manston and Langdon Bay as the coldest in SE which is interesting as being on the coast with ENE off the sea usually they are a tad warmer ,colder air reached there you think??

Langdon bay...... 0.5 °C ENE 8 mph N/A 1021 hPa, FallingManston.......0.9 °C E 3 mph 15 km 1021 hPa, Falling

Edited December 14, 2009 by TN9

[PB22]

It will start to feel much colder tomorrow as we pull in colder and drier air from the nearby continent:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs271.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs277.html

Expect a hard frost tomorrow night across the south as it clears out:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs424.html

[Snow Obsession]

Rain and more rain here at the moment - for most of the afternoon so the ground is very wet. The car temperature said 6 degrees on the way home just now

Just hoping it will get colder here overnight - but I don't think there would be any chance of it settling anyway given how wet the ground is.