East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[PureOcean]

Latest forecast from Francis wilson is more on the money than the BBC in my opinion Watch it here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPIn-jdo24Q

Yeah very funny video, got the comments correct. Francis Wilson I have full respect for the bloke is a legend when it comes to snow forecasts, I would say he gets it about 9/10 times right on the spot!

[VillagePlank]

Just a piece of advise please. I am taking my wife and two small children to center parcs on Friday. The issue is I will be going from Chafford Hundred in Essex to Elevon Forest in East Anglia. will the weather hold up so I can drive us all there? We are planning at leaving at 9am on the FridY (after some mcdonalds brekkie yum yum). But by reading peoples posts the worst of the snow will be Thursday / Friday.

Thanks for any advise

From a complete novice

Keep a close eye on the forecast throughout Thursday is probably the best advice, be prepared!

[Country Boy]

Just got in and the car temp. was showing -2. But hardly any wind, the cloud cover looks white, but still dry. the roads have just been gritted. Where I live ( clacton on sea ) will see the first of any thing from the East as I am on the coast, think it will be sleety here but inland will be a different story, will we get a Eastly snow streamer later in the week. ??? ..we sit and wait, thats the good thing about the weather..we cant do anything about it..

[PureOcean]

Just a piece of advise please. I am taking my wife and two small children to center parcs on Friday. The issue is I will be going from Chafford Hundred in Essex to Elevon Forest in East Anglia. will the weather hold up so I can drive us all there? We are planning at leaving at 9am on the FridY (after some mcdonalds brekkie yum yum). But by reading peoples posts the worst of the snow will be Thursday / Friday.

Thanks for any advise

From a complete novice

You will have a bad journey, you need to pack some blankets, a shovel and other things just in case, drive sensible and you will be ok, but expect biting cold wind chill and expect snow. Believe me having lived in countries with -30C and been in some heavy snow storms this will not be like that, just be careful.

Remember its very hard to forecast depth of snow, and that is always the issue!

Edited December 15, 2009 by PureOcean

[Upgrade]

Yeah very funny video, got the comments correct. Francis Wilson I have full respect for the bloke is a legend when it comes to snow forecasts, I would say he gets it about 9/10 times right on the spot!

yes, Francis is a real snow fan (and heatwave fan) and a really good forecaster. top guy.

almost time to dust down those Feb 91 videos.....

Edited December 15, 2009 by jimmyay

[ickledoozer]

Current temp around -0.5 with a dew point of -3 to -4.

[TEITS]

Another thing worth noting is how reliable the GFS precip charts are between +0 & +48 if anything I find these more reliable than the BBC/Met O/Fax.

During the Feb 2nd E,ly the BBC were suggesting many snow showers for E Anglia and yet the GFS only really indicated snow for the SE and it did actually predict the streamer. The GFS was spot on with this and also nailed the snowfalls on the 5th Feb.

So keep an eye on the precip charts over the next few days.

[NorthantsSnow]

Yeah very funny video, got the comments correct. Francis Wilson I have full respect for the bloke is a legend when it comes to snow forecasts, I would say he gets it about 9/10 times right on the spot!

He's definitely a legendary weather forecaster and one of the best on the box. I hated him at first but I've grown to love him over time. He bugs me lately though in that he has a heavy London & the SE bias. He will often reference weather for these areas but not what's happening elsewhere, very irritating.

Also about a week or two ago he said that there didn't look to be any snow coming our way in the run up to Christmas. I thought at the time that it was a bit early to make such a sweeping statement and it does indeed look to have been a bad call on his part.

[janetmh71]

Just dropped to -3 here, everything slowly turning white . . also had email from Netweather saying light snow to the north of us but have not seen any here yet. Being on the edge of a village there are not many lamp posts to look at unfortunately but hotel up the road has a security light. Not heard any gritters go by so may be skating to school in the morning just hope the main road has been done or its in the river we go!!

Janet

[Met4Cast]

Latest BBC forecast seems to suggest it'll fall as snow in the SE for longer, rather than turning to rain within an hour as previously forecasted

[Tim Bland]

So TEITS, do you think this snow could challenge Feb's amounts?

I would seriously doubt if we get anything close to Feb! That was a once in a decade snowfall. I can remember many occasions when Severe weather warnings showed 80% risk of disruption and we only got a bit of sleet. I can remember the forecasts 3 days before the Feb event and they where talking about heavy persistent snow. This time the forecast is "Snow showers" and the warnings are for 5-10cms.

Some lucky area will record a decent depth by Friday night but it just depends on the shower distribution.

Seriously though guys don't expect a repeat of Feb and you woint be dissapointed

[paul tall]

Another thing worth noting is how reliable the GFS precip charts are between +0 & +48 if anything I find these more reliable than the BBC/Met O/Fax.

During the Feb 2nd E,ly the BBC were suggesting many snow showers for E Anglia and yet the GFS only really indicated snow for the SE and it did actually predict the streamer. The GFS was spot on with this and also nailed the snowfalls on the 5th Feb.

So keep an eye on the precip charts over the next few days.

Great tip theree TEITS, I concur fully.

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 18z run has started, I may post a chart or 2 from it

[maidstone weather]

Latest BBC forecast seems to suggest it'll fall as snow in the SE for longer, rather than turning to rain within an hour as previously forecasted

that forecast is recorded from earlier - it will be repeated yet again at 21:57 word-for-word

[Leigh]

Thanks for the replies. Much appreciated

[hobbielancie]

Well I live in Fakenham and only expect a dusting. No denying it won't be cold though. Look forward to the Northerly if we get it.

[TEITS]

Seriously though guys don't expect a repeat of Feb and you woint be dissapointed

The N Sea temps are much warmer compared to Feb. Don't forget the reason why the showers develop is because of the temp conrast between the air and the sea. The greater the contrast is the greater the convection. Im even thinking thundersnow is possible!

[NorthantsSnow]

that forecast is recorded from earlier - it will be repeated yet again at 21:57 word-for-word

Does BBC News pre-record forecasts this early in the evening now? Disappointing if true.

I think even Sky News is live until 10pm and then Francis will pre-record one for the overnights.

Still, with a notorious mild ramper like Alex Deakin on the late shift, I'm not sure I can be bothered with the BBC forecast tonight.

Edited December 15, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[TEITS]

Well I live in Fakenham and only expect a dusting. No denying it won't be cold though. Look forward to the Northerly if we get it.

Fakenham is in prime position in my opinion. You shouldn't experience the warming effect of the N Sea and yet should also see the heaviest snow showers.

I have many fond memories of your area as I used to spend my summer holidays in Walsingham.

[maidstone weather]

Does BBC News pre-record forecasts this early in the evening now? Disappointing if true.

I think even Sky News is live until 10pm and then Francis will pre-record one for the overnights.

Still, with a notorious mild ramper like Alex Deakin on the late shift, I'm not sure I can be bothered with the BBC forecast tonight.

only the 21:27 and 21:57 are recorded, mainly because the News Channel then moves to the BBC World News studio so they need to make the forecast longer to fit the gap.

Then from 00:27 right through to 05:57, the forecast is the same one repeated time and time again.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Fakenham is in prime position in my opinion. You shouldn't experience the warming effect of the N Sea and yet should also see the heaviest snow showers.

How do you feel about my location in that rsspect?

[Met4Cast]

Does BBC News pre-record forecasts this early in the evening now? Disappointing if true.

I think even Sky News is live until 10pm and then Francis will pre-record one for the overnights.

Still, with a notorious mild ramper like Alex Deakin on the late shift, I'm not sure I can be bothered with the BBC forecast tonight.

I thought all BBC forecasts were live. When I cant sleep I often have the news on whilst doing other things and sometimes the forecaster will change.

[Paul Sherman]

Gunna open a fresh thread in time for the 18z in a few minutes guys

Paul S

New Fred Below

[Ben_Cambs]

My last post in this old thread 40 pages in a day and a bit!:

GFS 18z looking good, Seems to me a bit similar to the last run

[Blake7]

The temp in Ramsgate at the mo is +0.4c ... has anyone seen any sign of snow yet ? im sure I just saw a few rouge flakes drift past my IR CCTV camera which overlooks the driveway ...