Model Output Discussion

[Lewis]

Exactly my point ... something great turning into less and less and less .... by tomorrow I think we could be looking at model output showing double figures for next weekend if the trend to downgrade continues (

Thats untrue mate,

The models have thrown all different types of scenario's at us, all of which are cold or very cold, very snowy, and less snowy. No signs of the Atlantic at all.

The current 18z is fantastic, the easterly is not as potent as the ECM12Z is showing, but was it ever going to be? or could it still be.

If you looked at the latest fax charts it looks fantastic, with sub 528 dam and an occlusion.

The current 18z is toppler like but not, as a normal toppler would bring a Northerly right behind it, but there is a northerly trying to establish and push South.

So let me think... Umm it's the 12th of December, we have an easterly bringing very cold pools of 850's, chances of snow, the chance of upgrades, and even out in FI on every model there is no sign of the Atlantic breaking through..

Oops i forgot to add the Northerly

Now i'll ask the question again, what is wrong with that?

If you want better, move to the N Pole

Edited December 12, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[smich]

This incredible appetite for constant upgrades and Armageddon synoptics ESPECIALLY in December astonishes me.

Some of you are simply too greedy.

smich

Edited December 12, 2009 by smich

[Cloud 10]

Some rather bizarre posts in the last half hour,maybe the 18z parallel can lift the mood again.

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe

[Typhoon John]

The models are showing some great weather and I can't wait to see what happens over the next week. Hopefully we'll see some snow by the end of the week and the Northerly reload shown by the models looks odds on considering the current pattern. Further out and it would seem that there's a good chance the cold will last until Christmas and hopefully that'll bring some snow for all. IMO a fantastic start to the Winter, just wait until January!

Edited December 12, 2009 by Paul

[snowking]

I really can't understand why some are moaning. We have already seen with the ECM that the end of the week isn't certain. Also the potential beyond the E,lys is upgrading with every run.

I think the same can be said about the GFS, thats another scenario its throwing up which i've not seen yet. So much inconsistency at the moment we're looking blindly at the future at the moment

SK

Edited December 12, 2009 by snowking

[mickpips]

Given is the 12th of december and we have a virtually dead atlantic and major blocking towards greenland then i think some comments and despair are a bit ott.

Not ott , but realistic ... as you kindly pointed out , with those sypnoptics , no matter if its December , Jan or Feb .... its the ideal and rare setup that should be throwing cold our way , which we have seen all week on plenty of model outputs. Its dissapointment rather than dispair that people on here are feeling !

Tomorrow however is a whole new day of model output ... I would have been happy with some middle ground given this weeks output but its looking increasingly likely we'll experience a 'cool' spell , nothing potent or in the 'cold enough for snow' category this coming week for England at least

[PB22]

Last post of the night, then you can all get on with it as its a waste of time trying to have a constructive discussion with some people who have little grasp of reality.

The Parallel run is promising:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-96.png?18

In a way, I hope double figure temperatures return soon, its no more than some people deserve.

[mickpips]

I think the same can be said about the GFS, thats another scenario its throwing up which i've not seen yet. So much inconsistency at the moment we're looking blindly at the future at the moment

SK

Hey Kris , hope your well.

A few days ago it was Monday / Tuesday and -6 to -8 850's pushing into the SE with bitter cold easterlies following on into eastern England , then it was pushed back to later in the week , now we are keeping our fingers crossed we get anything at all , by the end of the week !! yet again , all in what can be classed as FI .... there should be an ACFI group on here ... always chasing Fanntasy Island !!

All the potential is always beyond the reliable timeframe and thats clearly shown by the divergence in model outputs

[Harsh Climate]

This model watching lark is a bit like Deal or no Deal IMO.

Looking at the model eye candy of recent days is no different than some one looking at a full board but only actually seeing the 250K. Over subsequent runs we've see the 250k and 100k go, but even tho 75k is still up for grabs it suddenly appears like its not worth having - but of course it is.

OK, we might have seen our big red numbers take a bit of a battering recently, but overall the board is still an excellent one and we may still spank the banker (that's not a euphemism btw.... ) come next week.

Worzel - get some cider in side her.

lol, i like your logic wiish like deal or no deal it was in our hands

[pj cov]

for me,,you typify one of many that only see the negative of what is obviously a very rare,, and very cold set up,,

for those of you that struggle with reading the models etc,,stick to reading the posts of the more experienced

and more intelligent posters...

the feb 09 event is something we"ll never forget,,,but also remember,,this wasnt even forecast the day before,,,

so for everyone looking and hoping for snow,,,i guarentee it will appear out of nowhere at very short notice,,,

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Apparently 18z parallel is better so it may well be a blip from 18z operational.

The picture is very confused but if we take the 18z op in isolation its not bringing in the cold uppers which

all head off into Europe.

Im still hoping ecm can be right because ukmo amd gfs are showing that high sinking imo.

[Geordiesnow]

Some rather bizarre posts in the last half hour,maybe the 18z parallel can lift the mood again.

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe

Nope, i doubt it, it shows the same as the main GFS 18Z with the quick sinking of the easterly and the Northerly heading into the north sea.

I'm not going to fuss over the Northerly potential, i'm just more frustrated with how today runs have really downgraded the easterly.

12Z ECM is the only saving grace from today's output but it is on it's own it must be said. Here's hoping tomorrow will be a better day.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Thanks Lomondsnowstorm, I'd like to think you are right. However only two days ago GFS in particular was showing a potent 36-48hrs easterly across the south for Monday and Tuesday, but that simply disappeared into the ether and I fear Wednesday/Thursdays shot will go in a similar direction on the models across the next 24hrs, with most eventually coming around towards tonights UKMO solution.

Worzel - get some cider in side her.

I feel the same actually. And am very nervous for all of tomorrows runs!! If they hang in there til Monday night I might start believing again.

[pyrotech]

Well GFS parallel has been consistant and still looks awesome.

2 points

1. It has not happened yet and all the models are showing different outcomes on each run, closest to similarity is GFS parellel

2. Winter has only just started and lots to be positive, What ever this ends up, its a huge upgrade from what we had for last 50 days, Stratosphere warming, low solar min and now a cold Europe. Its a fantastic start.

GFS Parrallel was looking great as far as i saw it too, going to check rest of it now.

[snowray]

Calm down people or someone will burst a blood vessel or two by next week and we are only in the 2nd week of winter! Yes the parallel run remains far better, Fax charts are OK and its still all a long way off. This is a good run for North East Scotland by the way, and everyone will or should see a flake or 2 at some point, maybe even a 3 inch drift if its windy enough.

Edited December 12, 2009 by snowray

[TEITS]

A couple of points before I shoot off.

For starters we have excellent model agreement that towards the end of the week we shall see a spell of E,lys (see my post about the fax charts). Now how cold is uncertain and so is the duration. I won't go into detail about precipitation because its a waste of time looking for snow at this early stage.

Now it looks very likely that the duration of this E,ly won't last any longer than around 36-48hrs because we start to see the next change to our N. This isn't anything new so it isn't a downgrade because we knew this yesterday. However looking generally at the upper temps of all the models I would say between -8 to -12C is possible for the end of next week which is certainly cold enough for snowfall.

Beyond the E,ly and the models continue to suggest that we shall remain cold and the potential for snowfall remains.

Lastly I will say why worry about snowfall when come tomorrow morning the models most likely would of changed. They might change for the worse or they might change towards the better i.e ECM. However you can guarantee they will change and you can guarantee the models won't predict the precip accurately at this stage.

[Harsh Climate]

Some people really do need a reality check, the gfs 18z is a horror show! And over the last couple of days, things have slowly gone down hill, this is not me giving up but things have to change soon, very soon. I now FI is FI but a little worrying when even that shows a return to mild conditions which it has done over the last couple of days.

Compared to what we usually get Im still very happy with the weather we are about to get, but heavy snowfalls at the moment are still a million miles in the realistic timeframe.

Il probably get slated for this, but dont want the less knowledgable members on here to get sucked into the 'snowfest' n b gutted if it goes tits up.

[snowking]

Hey Kris , hope your well.

A few days ago it was Monday / Tuesday and -6 to -8 850's pushing into the SE with bitter cold easterlies following on into eastern England , then it was pushed back to later in the week , now we are keeping our fingers crossed we get anything at all , by the end of the week !! yet again , all in what can be classed as FI .... there should be an ACFI group on here ... always chasing Fanntasy Island !!

All the potential is always beyond the reliable timeframe and thats clearly shown by the divergence in model outputs

Hi Mick,

I think the problem is people still hang on every run. Its been said time after time to compare z to z rahter than 12z to 18z etc. However given the current chopping and changing we really have to throw any sort of comparison out the window! A few days ago it was the ECMWF that wa the villain and the GFS was victorious, oh praise be to GeeFuS. Now the ECM is everyones friend and the GFS is bringing everyone down

The truth of the matter is thought that we can only simply sit back and admire the runs. It seems that no matter what the charts throw into the situation at the moment it ends up in cold. Whether or not it is due to the very negative AO outlook or not im not sure, but I cant ever remember seeing a toppler situation evolving into northerly cyclogenesis as per the 18z.

It has certainly downgraded things for mon/tues, but obviously we wont be able to tell for a couple more days yet whether or not we are seeing the downgrading of the easterly progged for the end of the week

SK

[January Snowstorm]

Some people really do need a reality check, the gfs 18z is a horror show! And over the last couple of days, things have slowly gone down hill, this is not me giving up but things have to change soon, very soon. I now FI is FI but a little worrying when even that shows a return to mild conditions which it has done over the last couple of days.

Compared to what we usually get Im still very happy with the weather we are about to get, but heavy snowfalls at the moment are still a million miles in the realistic timeframe.

Il probably get slated for this, but dont want the less knowledgable members on here to get sucked into the 'snowfest' n b gutted if it goes tits up.

Agree with every word.

Yes still a good start to Winter but we WERE looking at something so much more yesterday

[LomondSnowstorm]

You have to laugh - while the outlook for Scotland hasn't really decreased from the 12Z, in fact I would say there is a bit more potential, the outlook further south has worsened, so the forum turns into a mass suicide pact. The parallel has been incredibly consistent for this spell, go check it out, it isn't too bad. After the potential northerly reload, who knows what will happen? With the block in place, though, I don't think it will just return to mild westerlies, in spite of what has been shown a few times in FI. Go to bed, come back tomorrow and it will all seem a bit clearer.

LS

[J10]

The 18Hz brings colder weather in sooner (for Wednesday) which is really starting to get into the reliable time frame.

The charts are still really going for a decent wintry spell at least, how cold and snowy is very much uncertain.

[TEITS]

Hey Kris , hope your well.

A few days ago it was Monday / Tuesday and -6 to -8 850's pushing into the SE with bitter cold easterlies following on into eastern England , then it was pushed back to later in the week , now we are keeping our fingers crossed we get anything at all , by the end of the week !! yet again , all in what can be classed as FI .... there should be an ACFI group on here ... always chasing Fanntasy Island !!

All the potential is always beyond the reliable timeframe and thats clearly shown by the divergence in model outputs

What you have to remember is the E,lys the GFS predicted for Mon wasn't supported by any other model and I did say at the time the GFS would backtrack. However the models do generally agree on colder E,lys around +96 but its how cold and the duration thats in question.

When it comes to using the models to predict a cold spell you should always remain cautious until all models agree. This is why nobody can really say what will happen on Thurs/Friday until we get model agreement.

[Neilsouth]

The truth of the matter is , DO NOT trust any models beyond 3days!. I waited till friday because the models showed me -10 moving across the south east and possible snow i didn't believe it!. I waited and lo and behold it's gone , the same thing may happen to this next blast aswell. So i'll wait till monday , but the truth of the matter is the runs have been terrible every one of them this goes for monday!. Not one of the models has been consistant.

Insulting fellow members because they don't think it will happen , downgrade or don't like the run is pointless and shows you being more childish than they apparantly are!

[The Eagle]

At the end of the day it has come down to this

vs

Ultimately we are going to find out tomorrow morning.

Everything looks pretty similar except for the shallow shortwave to the East of GL on the GFS.

Edited December 12, 2009 by The Eagle

[Paul]

The number of posts being removed / edited this evening is getting ridiculous - those who are posting off topic comments or are breaking the forum guidelines in other ways, you're ruining these threads for those who want to actually discuss the models.

So please, consider what you're posting - if you post is off topic, doesn't add to the discussion or breaks the forum guidelines then do not post it by doing so you're being totally unfair to the other members and the team who then have to spend time removing your posts - we'll be going through the trash can later / tomorrow and all those members who are having a large number of their posts removed will find themselves stopped from posting for a period of time.