Model Output Discussion

[Coast]

This is the Model Discussion Thread, where we discuss and interpret what the charts and models from the big (and not so big) guns show us. If you want to moan and complain, then we have a whining thread for that. If you want to ramp and whoop it up, we have a thread for that. If you want to talk generally about the cold and snow then we even have a thread for that. If you want to ask 'is it gong to snow in?' then we will soon have a thread for that too.

If your post is off topic or a one liner giving no contribution to the model discussion, we also have a place for that - the trash can.

Think carefully about what you post and it's relevance to this thread. Be respectful and understanding for other people's forecasts and interpretation of the current data - and most of all chill and enjoy!

[andy_leics22]

I think the best way to sum up the models again tonight are.. "Hmm"

ECM says "Middle of next week, get ready for some fun and games"

UKMO says "Don't get too excited snow lovers, it's not going to be much to write home about"

GFS Operational says "Not bad, could be a lot better but could be a lot worse"

GFS Parallel says "Bit better than my brother but not as good as the ECM"

Edited December 12, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Snowaddict]

Once again, like the GFS, ECM shows us locked in to the cold pattern. Stunning run. Enough said I think.

IF, & it's a big IF tonight's ECMWF run verified, eastern Ireland could do very well next week, very well indeed.

I notice that sleet and snow, albeit at elevated levels, was mentioned on the 6PM broadcast by Gerry Murphy!! - Probably indicating usage of the 12Z ECMWF guidance, especially when G Murphy has mentioned the prospects of snowfall.

It's really quite difficult at such a close range to know what the outcome will be. It seems all or nothing when you compare UKMO with ECMWF...

If the evolution were that of the ECMWF 12Z, eastern, southeastern and northeastern areas would be first affected in Ireland, with the WNW then taking a pounding later on in the week with the potential for embedded troughs to travel down across the country.

Quite stunning output - let's just hope it turns out like that.

Edited December 12, 2009 by Snowaddict

[snowking]

Interesting taking a look at the model correlation at days 5 and 6 that the new GFS parallel runs come out on top at the moment.....but even more interesting for me is the recent consistent performance from the GEM

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Encouraging given the recent GFS parallel output though that its performing well!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting taking a look at the model correlation at days 5 and 6 that the new GFS parallel runs come out on top at the moment.....but even more interesting for me is the recent consistent performance from the GEM

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html

Encouraging given the recent GFS parallel output though that its performing well!

ECM outperforming UKMO at day 5, very encouraging given its latest output!!

[Snowaddict]

ECM outperforming UKMO at day 5, very encouraging given its latest output!!

Even more encouraging is that ECMWF, in the past two days has retuned to the top! You can just make it out there with the GFS Parallel Run on the most recent section of the chart..

From the ECMWF Precip Charts @ T+120, Eastern Scotland, the majority of Central & Eastern England along with Eastern and Southeastern Ireland would receive fairly significant snow showers...

[The Eagle]

IF, & it's a big IF tonight's ECMWF run verified, eastern Ireland could do very well next week, very well indeed.

I notice that sleet and snow, albeit at elevated levels, was mentioned on the 6PM broadcast by Gerry Murphy!! - Probably indicating usage of the 12Z ECMWF guidance, especially when G Murphy has mentioned the prospects of snowfall.

It's really quite difficult at such a close range to know what the outcome will be. It seems all or nothing when you compare UKMO with ECMWF...

If the evolution were that of the ECMWF 12Z, eastern, southeastern and northeastern areas would be first affected in Ireland, with the WNW then taking a pounding later on in the week with the potential for embedded troughs to travel down across the country.

Quite stunning output - let's just hope it turns out like that.

They do use the ECM. You won't need any elevation if that came off. I think the ECM is the best model so im delighted it shows what it shows more then if the GFS was showing it. Lets see where the 18z GFS goes. I think collectively many on the forum are in a good spot right now! Fingers crossed.

[The PIT]

The problem with this still born cold spell is that it stays out in FI. Yeh charts look nice out there but nothing to get excited about in the reliable time frame unless you get excited scraping your car once in while in the morning.

People round here are walking around saying it's really cold. It's 3.4C and for the time of year it's not cold. I guess thats the effect of the very mild November.

So at the moment in the reliable time frame nothing to get excited about.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM outperforming UKMO at day 5, very encouraging given its latest output!!

That's surprising considering it recent wobbles and the UKMO being alot more consistent.

ECM has pretty much saved the day i feel regarding snow potential on the easterly as things were starting to turn for the worst. However it has it wobbles so we got to be a little vigilant but as we see consistency is not always the key. Hopefully the UKMO and in some ways the GFS is having a few wobbles and will upgrade the easterly ASAP.

What we don't want to see from the 18Z is any trending towards the UKMO output regarding the easterly.

[karyo]

As already mentioned, there is a mixed output tonight with the UKMO looking uninspiring (especially in relation to the easterly). The ECM is an absolute beauty though and I so hope it's got this right!

The gefs ensembles are stuck in the 6z

Karyo

[West is Best]

ECM 12z is a very cold run but shows that milder weather would arrive before christmas if it ran beyond T+240, ukmo 12Z being rubbished but looks promising for a N'ly at T+144. More great models today but the trend seems to be growing for a return to mild zoneality either just before or during xmas day/boxing day.

A 'trend' for anything at T200+ means absolutely zilch though.

Nice to be in a position where the immediate future is cold, and FI can come up with whatever it wants! 12z Ensembles show plenty of FI spread.

Good runs tonight. Liking the immediate future! As for the ECM - wow! But even GFS is fine.

[Sawel]

The strange thing is, the big difference between the ECM and the UKMO/GFS with the positioning of that Low coming out of Scandinavia is not not happening at 120 hrs, but 72 hours or even less than that!

The positioning of that Low is what determines the snow potential here...

The GFS 18z will be interesting, will it differ once again from the ECM at such a short range?

Edited December 12, 2009 by Sawel

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A 'trend' for anything at T200+ means absolutely zilch though.

Nice to be in a position where the immediate future is cold, and FI can come up with whatever it wants! 12z Ensembles show plenty of FI spread.

Good runs tonight. Liking the immediate future! As for the ECM - wow! But even GFS is fine.

ECM would bring seriou disruptive snowfall,some places would be literally buried in the stuff.

UKMO would introduce some dandruff in the SE and very little elsewhere.I have to say im sure ukmo will

have this nailed.

We have been here before in Feb,at that range ukmo will be correct,yes it will be cold but it will be dry as

a bone for the vast majority.

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

[mattneal]

ECM would bring seriou disruptive snowfall,some places would be literally buried in the stuff.

UKMO would introduce some dandruff in the SE and very little elsewhere.I have to say im sure ukmo will

have this nailed.

We have been here before in Feb,at that range ukmo will be correct,yes it will be cold but it will be dry as

a bone for the vast majority.

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

surely though regional and national news forecasts from such places as the bbc have a bias to use the met office as a source for their forecasts so inevitably making use of the UKMO

[The PIT]

ECM would bring seriou disruptive snowfall,some places would be literally buried in the stuff.

UKMO would introduce some dandruff in the SE and very little elsewhere.I have to say im sure ukmo will

have this nailed.

We have been here before in Feb,at that range ukmo will be correct,yes it will be cold but it will be dry as

a bone for the vast majority.

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

If the ECM is right that is??? Your talking about FI here. Certainly the upper temps would give plenty of snow. ECM out on it's own at the moment.

[MR EXTREMES]

The problem with this still born cold spell is that it stays out in FI. Yeh charts look nice out there but nothing to get excited about in the reliable time frame unless you get excited scraping your car once in while in the morning.

People round here are walking around saying it's really cold. It's 3.4C and for the time of year it's not cold. I guess thats the effect of the very mild November.

So at the moment in the reliable time frame nothing to get excited about.

i do not agree 3.4c at this time of the year is brillant its not even a couple of weeks into winter:drinks:.

as for the ecm excellent run being a newbie i wonder how i knew it would be a good run it was not guess,

simply asnwer is the flips in model outputs have been coming and going all week.

i would not take ecm as gospel run but if for the next 3days stays similar to tonights run then it could be good news.

as for the end of the cold spell i would not even bother looking that far ahead im excited and very confident things are falling in place not just for this cold spell but also winter as a whole.

<_<

and happy your so wrong aswell perhapes the name unhappy would be better im confident and so are many others.

so perhapes just have faith in the weather gods.

if it happens it happens,

if not it dont.

but overall its a start of a good trend.:lol:

Edited December 12, 2009 by badboy657

[SLEETY]

ECM would bring seriou disruptive snowfall,some places would be literally buried in the stuff.

UKMO would introduce some dandruff in the SE and very little elsewhere.I have to say im sure ukmo will

have this nailed.

We have been here before in Feb,at that range ukmo will be correct,yes it will be cold but it will be dry as

a bone for the vast majority.

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

Yes but he wouldn't have seen the latest ecm run before saying those comments so its not clear cut yet as you seem to think,have to wait until tomorrow.

[The PIT]

i do not agree 3.4c at this time of the year is brillant its not even a couple of weeks into winter:drinks:.

as for the ecm excellent run being a newbie i wonder how i knew it would be a good run it was not guess,

simply asnwer is the flips in model outputs have been coming and going all week.

i would not take ecm as gospel run but if for the next 3days stays similar to tonights run then it could be good news.

as for the end of the cold spell i would not even bother looking that far ahead im excited and very confident things are falling in place not just for this cold spell but also winter as a whole.

<_<

Rubbish 3.4C at this time of night isn't even cold considering the clear skies.

The main reason why I'm not convinced is that the cold proper stays always in FI and is constantly being moved back. This summer when we were looking for a dry spell it stayed in FI.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes but he wouldn't have seen the latest ecm run before saying those comments so its not clear cut yet as you seem to think,have to wait until tomorrow.

Actually it was a she,susan powell.

Fingers crossed for ecm because that run is fabulous.

Tomorrows morning runs will be key but FAZ charts tonight might give more clues.

Snow fans prayer mats out for ecm and its ensembles.

[phil nw.]

Differences between ECM and GFS/UKMO are apparent by T96hrs. when looking at modelling of the Low nr.Denmark.

ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

Until this is agreed then the exact effect of the Easterly is uncertain.

We can see there will be one but what sort?

The overall pattern though is for getting colder from midweek with at least snow flurries/showers later in the week for some.

[Snowstorm1]

Rubbish 3.4C at this time of night isn't even cold considering the clear skies.

The main reason why I'm not convinced is that the cold proper stays always in FI and is constantly being moved back. This summer when we were looking for a dry spell it stayed in FI.

Mate look at the ecm and gfs and you see snow in the reliable timeframe and mate your post and other people posts like this without links is making people confused!

Edited December 12, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[The Eagle]

Latest 12z UKMO Fax chart for 72hrs

Very similar to the ECM.

[snowking]

Could somebody clear something up for me...

Is the UKMO lower resolution than the ECMWF?

Judging by the look of the wetterzentralised UKMO output it certainly looks it

Kind Regards

SK

[Thundery wintry showers]

From my perspective the 12Z ECM would be ideal- the onset of the coldest air is delayed a little (meaning a reasonably trouble-free train journey from Norwich to Newcastle on the 17th) and the coldest air then comes flooding in on the 18th bringing a near-certain snowfest to eastern Britain (including both Norwich and Tyneside). The further outlook has some pretty impressive northerlies.

Amazingly the models are still uncertain with GFS 12Z toning down the easterly a touch and UKMO toning it down quite a lot. I was raving about how consistent the UKMO had been until recently but it has been chopping and changing a bit over the last few runs as well, as has ECM, with GFS perhaps the most consistent over the last two days.

[SLEETY]

Actually it was a she,susan powell.

Fingers crossed for ecm because that run is fabulous.

Tomorrows morning runs will be key but FAZ charts tonight might give more clues.

Snow fans prayer mats out for ecm and its ensembles.

Also considering the difference between ecm and meto is at only at t+72 and she has seen the latest ECM run,and chosen to ignore it,then thats very brave or foolish to be that confident of the meto over ecm at such a short time scale.

Obviously i hope she is wrong,but she must be praying she has called this correct,otherwise its another forecaster whose credibility is about to drop through the floor