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First 2010 Atlantic Season Forecast

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First Klotzbach / Gray 2010 Atlantic season forecast

Information obtained through November 2009 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that activity will return to levels more typical of years during an active era, such as what we have experienced since 1995. We expect to see approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occur during the 2010 hurricane season. These numbers are based on the average of our statistical model, our analog model and qualitative adjustments and insights. At this point, there is too much uncertainty in what large-scale parameters will be in August-October of next year to issue a forecast for specific numbers. However, we do feel that we are in a favorable position for issuing an early December forecast this year, since we believe the odds of a multi-year El Niño event are quite small. Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2010, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect to see the moderate to strong El Niño event that is currently in progress diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Named Storms=11-16

Hurricanes=6-8

Major Hurricanes=3-5

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Whilst its early days I don't think this El Nino event will decay quickly enough for this hurricane season...however its a little too early to make that sort of call as El Nino do tend to peak in December. The months of March and April are usually the make or break months when it comes to ENSO events.

I suspect though we'll have a weak event still in place and that will hold back the numbers a good deal more then they are expecting. We'll see but I think its going to be enough of a force to at least cause issues for the season. I'd punt at a little above normal right now but only a little, maybe 11 storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 majors, something like that.

Of course much depends on the El nino in progress because if that does weak fairly well then its quite possible that we will have a more active season then I'm currently expecting...for now its far too early to make such a call.

For now winter has me gripped I'm afriad!

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Thanks for you'res thoughts and input mate :cold:

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Far too early to tell with any accuracy, though I don't expect 2010 to be like 2009. I read form Dr. Masters on Wunderground that moderate to strong El Nino rarely lasts for two seasons though it has happened in the past. As KW says, at the moment is is difficult to believe that El Nino will be completely gone by then but perhaps levels will be nearer neutral values, promoting a more active hurricane season. However, these things are very unpredictable and this is just speculation at this point. Very bold of Klotzbach to be so keen on an active season however.

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The one thing that does favour an active season is the fact that El ninos tend to warm up the Atlantic quite rapidly, if you look at other active seasons they often come off the back of an El Nino season, for example recent ones such as 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2005 all came off the back of el nino events, all had some big hurricanes and were active seasons.

It all depends on what state the El nino is in, if it does die down quite a lot to close to neutral then I can see why they would think there could be a very active season but for now I'm not all that confident on what the El nino is going to do, hence why March and April is key, thats when you usually get a decent idea of the Nino's evolution.

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if elnino weakens will that mean a quieter west and east paific seasons. as this season was crazy in the west pacific

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