Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

Looks like a middle ground has been found to me, with better agreement at T+96. It isn't a total backtrack by the ECM. Looks like there is a slight downgrade in the short term, but what happens after that is anyones guess at the moment.

this looks like a backtrack to me its fantastic im very very confident now infact im very happy great getting up with the early birds to read the good news.

iceberg i think your spot on keep within the reliable timeframe and i for one wont be screaming over before its started.

woke up this morning thick frost really wintry air fantastic model agreement allround

[West is Best]

0z GFS - possibly the greatest model run I've seen in 5 years, particularly so because we're not talking FI.

0z UKMO - absolutely fine

0z ECM - has now retreated from the 12z halfway to GFS and is a fine run.

If this all transpires then GFS becomes the undoubted leading model and I'm afraid I would no longer put ECM in the top 3. It's been flip-flopping absurdly.

Anyway, fantastic overnight runs.

[Frosty.]

At last we have model agreement for an ENE'ly to develop during the first half of next week which will turn the rain showers more wintry after the weekend, high pressure slowly transferring NW'wards and beyond the E'ly the ECM 00z wants to introduce a N'ly blast, the gfs 00z goes a slightly different route by sending a low down the western side of the uk although this would have snow as the main precipitation despite winds briefly from a sw'ly direction, the air will be arctic in origin so we should be ok, FI is a winter dream with the gfs blasting the uk in bitterly cold and gale force SE'ly winds with snow at times. The UKMO 00z looks fine to me and indicates that a N'ly blast would arrive by the end of next week IMO.

[Fozfoster]

Well i've noticed ECM being inconsistent many times during the last year to 18 months, i've mentioned it many times so it's not just recently, i`m going to be keeping a close eye on ECMWF in 2010 and see if its all everybody says it is.

Frosty's thougths should be very good this morning much more positive than yesterdays morning as he bases his thoughts on ECM

Yesterday Cooling Climate said about ECM's achilles heel------Northern blocking and -AO , this could be the poor performing of late!

[MR EXTREMES]

Top of the morning, one and all.

Major backtracking from the ECM this morning at T+144 as it joins the Easterly Express. After that, it is FI, so really, it's all still up for grabs.

IMHO, we are a little closer this morning to something which could be as memorable as 1981 or 1995.

Happy days.

this is the classic sausage shape that steve murr was thinking about i also like the way it sits north around iceland and a little futher out into the alantic,

so im not expert would lows be able to slip over the omega high down the north sea side,

or run south under the high to slip over into france and spain.

but over all whoop whoop.

ps im not looking at anymore charts today just incase lol.

[Nick F]

Nice to see ECM fall in line for a second cold wave later next week, their T850s show some real cold air knocking at the door to the east next Thurs:

Going into FI, shame that both ECM and GFS fairly swiftly cut-off the frigid flow as the ridge to the N is squeezed NW by another low dropping down from Norwegian Sea ... though I think we can give some caution to this evolution being so far out and what with the model wobbles likely at this range

[Frosty.]

Frosty's thougths should be very good this morning much more positive than yesterdays morning as he bases his thoughts on ECM

Correct Eugene , much more positive now the ECM has jumped back onboard, slightly different evolutions showing beyond the initial E'ly but both would produce a prolonged and very cold outlook.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

A couple of points

The GFS Parallel run comes into the real mix next week. This model was the first to prog the cold spell, and has been adamant that it would happen. The old GFS always had problems with with non-zonal weather, and this new model has set a very high bar that the ECM will struggle to match.

BUT

They are models and there will be times when they diverge from each other, perhaps that's why we flock to this thread. You only have to look at some of the less favoured models NOGAPS, GEMS,to see that the divergence is there from the big 3 GFS, UKMO, ECM. This morning all the top models are telling us the same thing, and for many parts of the UK it may snow, and it will certainly will be cold.

Time to start looking at FI, without getting too excited to see where the divergences and breakdowns are going to happen

[MR EXTREMES]

Well something of a suprise from the ECM this morning given what we know about the christmas pudding, I would suggest we wait for the ensembles as the evolution means that minor changes would see the High on top of the UK at T144 and I think many members in the ensemble suite will suggest that.

its no good ian its nailed all models are in agreement,

one thing to remember is before yesterday the ecm model was also in very good agreement yesterday was either a fult or just a blip.

steve murr was very quick to to put this out.

but alsorts of charts and models have been coming out for 5 or more days and in the last few days most have been in excellent agreement,

as john said on his blog all that needs to be done is more firming up on detail.

over all im happy cold is coming i dont care how long it last its just the start well i hope anyway.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nice to see ECM fall in line for a second cold wave later next week, their T850s show some real cold air knocking at the door to the east next Thurs:

Going into FI, shame that both ECM and GFS fairly swiftly cut-off the frigid flow as the ridge to the N is squeezed NW by another low dropping down from Norwegian Sea ... though I think we can give some caution to this evolution being so far out and what with the model wobbles likely at this range

I agree Nick.

ECM HAS moved this morning in the +72h to +144h timeframe but conversely the gfs/ukmo AND ecm look quite similar

at +144h now.

I think the one major postive this morning is ecm now brings in very cold uppers Wed/Thu,certainly cold enough

for the majority of England,esp further South and East.

Still in the melting pot,signs of the block being eroded as we into FI but this is fluid now,we have the cold stuff

making it into Blighty but how long will it stay?The ecm 850's are bitter at t144 AND t168 but posibly signs

of less colder air moving SOUTH.

In summary,if the models are to be believed,i think some in the south SE espceially could see sonw next week.

[cyclonic happiness]

Morning everyone, well that's a relief!! ecm back in line and all the models showing a good agreement now, we can almost stop holding our breaths

Has anyone else spotted a true POLAR LOW spinning off greenland and then over to us on the parallel??

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&runpara=1

[southbank]

nice to see a more consistent view across all 3 major models , although I have been enjoying all week the eye candy the models have been showing us especially in FI , today was always D-Day for model watching as the intial high development came into the T- 24-72 hours as this is key to subsquent development . The models always had the 16th or 17th as the date for the real good blast to effect us albeit in varies degrees of severity . At T+144 this is just a tad FI for my personal preference but await sunday models / countryside forecast with abated breath

we still have a few runs today so cant get to excited on the 00z just yet.

have to say a thumbs up to steve murr who was one of the first on here to spot on the models potential and exciting development

lets see how it pans out , still for me a anxious 48 hr model watching

[John Snow]

Am almost in shock at these charts, best I have ever seen, christmas is all but cancelled because most of the country is in for wave after wave of deep snow, this cold spell shows no sign of ending not even in FI

Spectacular

[cooling climate]

With what the models are showing this morning for next week, the expected weather and

model runs should be enjoyed without looking to far ahead but one thing did catch my

eye this morning and that is the t240 ECM n/hemisphere chart.

If you run the sequence leading up to t240 it looks as though the vortex will be cut

off over Europe with high pressure building over the top.

This would then almost certainly lead to a bitterly cold set up for all of Europe and

the UK leading into Christmas and beyond.

Anyway enough of that lets enjoy what we have coming next week.

[MR EXTREMES]

this chart makes me shiver.

and the gefs are pretty good indeed.

[Frosty.]

I don't think we need to worry about the ECM jumping ship again later today, the general pattern for next week is now probably set to become colder with wintry showers across southern and central britain but high pressure sitting across northern scotland will keep it fine up there and frosty nights. Hopefully another low will then dive south and give us a N'ly blast later next week as long as our current high can transfer northwest enough.

Edited December 11, 2009 by Frosty039

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well something of a suprise from the ECM this morning given what we know about the christmas pudding, I would suggest we wait for the ensembles as the evolution means that minor changes would see the High on top of the UK at T144 and I think many members in the ensemble suite will suggest that.

Hi Ian,

To be fair you have gone on record as saying Dec will be 'blowtorch' and the mildest since 1988,to be frank thats

a bust forecast.You also went for a record breaking Jan last winter which bust very badly.

I'd have thought your views might have moderated in light of the above.

[phil nw.]

ECM back in agreement with the other models on the 00z`s on the general cold pattern.

Looking at the near term +72hrs, it pushes the upper ridge right up to Greenland in line with all the other models.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem721.gif

All models show low pressure in the Med.which helps to bring the colder uppers into the SE on Monday as Easterly winds pick up.

Subtle differences on how the low coming south over Scandi. is developed start to show at this point and will impact on detail as we go further into next week.

However there is plenty of evidence from the 500hpa charts that the overall cold pattern will be here for more than a few days.

At T144hrs.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-144.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-144.GIF?11-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?11-06

The block orientating around but solid at that point to our North West.The cold air from the Siberian vortex continiung to advect into Europe and the UK

in the Easterly flow with the jet well to our South.

A classic cold set up that with,with luck, should bring a real taste of Winter that we havent had for many years.

[Tucco]

Still some very tasty runs on 00z.

The further North the Low from East/High further North the wintry spell it is more severe for the whole of the country.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-144.png?0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-10-1-144.png?0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-144.png?0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-1-144.png?0 best IMHO

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-144.png?0

Looking good for the South in most cases.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[MR EXTREMES]

With what the models are showing this morning for next week, the expected weather and

model runs should be enjoyed without looking to far ahead but one thing did catch my

eye this morning and that is the t240 ECM n/hemisphere chart.

If you run the sequence leading up to t240 it looks as though the vortex will be cut

off over Europe with high pressure building over the top.

This would then almost certainly lead to a bitterly cold set up for all of Europe and

the UK leading into Christmas and beyond.

Anyway enough of that lets enjoy what we have coming next week.

1963 lol.

jokes aside that is one hell of a nh chart,

although i dont want to get to excited about that way to far out for me.

but if i happened then christmas pudding eat ya heart out lol.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thanks for that detailed post Phil.

Its in the melting pot for the back end of next week.It could go either way,we have LP at southern latitudes but

the models HAVE injected some life into the Northern arm overnight which can be seen at T+144 h this morning,

crucially there is no sign of pressure build to the south which in theory should stop the high sinking too far south.

A second attempt at retorgression is made on ecm and fgs after the 144h juncture.

The cold week looks nailed for England but its the evolution after this thats really finely balanced now IMO.

[John Snow]

Its 100% nailed on that it is going to get a lot colder and that is in a reliable timeframe so all there is left to play for really is that shortwave, how much snow the country gets all depends on that shortwave, it misses us there will likely be modest amounts, we strike lucky with the shortwave this event will be something todays generation of kids will be telling their grandchildren about so its all down to the shortwave now to do its business. A nervous couple of days of model watching ahead

[TEITS]

Phew what a relief after viewing this mornings runs.

Little to add from my summary last night which was wintry showers early next week followed by colder ENE,lys moving in from Wed onwards bringing the risk of prolonged heavy snow showers.

However I still think the E,ly on Mon/Tues will be less cold,wintry that the GFS suggests which is why im going for wintry showers instead of snow showers.

Overall delighted and the chance of this cold spell being prolonged have increased this morning following the ECM F.I output.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Phew what a relief after viewing this mornings runs.

Little to add from my summary last night which was wintry showers early next week followed by colder ENE,lys moving in from Wed onwards bringing the risk of prolonged heavy snow showers.

However I still think the E,ly on Mon/Tues will be less cold,wintry that the GFS suggests which is why im going for wintry showers instead of snow showers.

Overall delighted and the chance of this cold spell being prolonged have increased this morning following the ECM F.I output.

FWIW mate i think you'll hit snow wed/thur.

The meto seem to agree with you about tues though,their latest update talks of rain tues down the east coast.

[Polar Continental]

ECM back in agreement with the other models on the 00z`s on the general cold pattern.

Looking at the near term +72hrs, it pushes the upper ridge right up to Greenland in line with all the other models.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem721.gif

All models show low pressure in the Med.which helps to bring the colder uppers into the SE on Monday as Easterly winds pick up.

Subtle differences on how the low coming south over Scandi. is developed start to show at this point and will impact on detail as we go further into next week.

However there is plenty of evidence from the 500hpa charts that the overall cold pattern will be here for more than a few days.

At T144hrs.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-144.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-144.GIF?11-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?11-06

The block orientating around but solid at that point to our North West.The cold air from the Siberian vortex continiung to advect into Europe and the UK

in the Easterly flow with the jet well to our South.

A classic cold set up that with,with luck, should bring a real taste of Winter that we havent had for many years.

Hi Phil, everyone,

Yes it’s very good so see the ECM joining in the fun at last.

It does now look as though we could be in for a significant cold spell.

Have been watching the very much-expected drama from the models over the last couple of days, though one normally expects the GFS to have the mood swings, but this time to my surprise it has been the ECM.

Not sure why this had been the case, though I think some have already touched on a possible reason, possibly because the ECM has been more finely tuned to cope with a + AO, where I suspect the GFS has been closer tuned to work better with –ve AO.

So maybe the reason the ECM as a consequence has struggled with the developments over the last few days.