Model Output Discussion

[Altostratus]

Looks like a middle ground has been found to me, with better agreement at T+96. It isn't a total backtrack by the ECM. Looks like there is a slight downgrade in the short term, but what happens after that is anyones guess at the moment.

[Blizzardo]

Very different and much improved ECM this morning. Big change from yesterday.

[Fozfoster]

Morning all, ECM looking good this morning SO FAR

[Cloud 10]

Nice to see the ecm get back on the horse after falling off yesterday,all 3 big models going for a very cold easterly around the middle of next week.

Looking like a northerly coming in the latter stages of the ecm.:lol:

[David-kig]

high pressure looks to close to the north the for north i think asnd overall alotr better just wat we wanted just a disspointment with ukmo a little but otherwise good best so far in terms of agreement. short term yes nt on the mark quite but gfs still looking consitent on that part

[Eugene]

Yes a bitterly cold easterly for the midlands and south at T+144 hrs on ECM, i do think GFS and other north american output models whats coming out of north america better than the euros though so i expect the GFS 00Z to be the most right.

[David-kig]

Yes a bitterly cold easterly for the midlands and south at T+144 hrs on ECM, i do think GFS and other north american output models whats coming out of north america better than the euros though so i expect the GFS 00Z to be the most right.

short term i would back gfs them. longer term well it does looking like an agreement begining so looking promising. very good ecm has come on board shame bout ukmo though

[Snowmad79]

On this mornings GFS 00z, looks like the HP is slower to actually establish itself over greenland with regards to its core but only a little mind but yeah the GFS is looking good. I havent viewed the ECM yet but last night when i checked the ecm 12z emsembles I thought to myself, If i hadnt seen the 12z ecm charts before hand.. anyone could have argued that the ECM ensembles actually showed what the GFS was showing with temps dipping off with the easterly then the cold hpa's temporarily letting up before cooling off again.

I guess what im suggesting is that maybe the models including the ECM may have been trying to work out a reload senario a bit futher down the line.

Anyway ... time to check that 00z ecm and ukmo !

[Polar Gael]

Top of the morning, one and all.

Major backtracking from the ECM this morning at T+144 as it joins the Easterly Express. After that, it is FI, so really, it's all still up for grabs.

IMHO, we are a little closer this morning to something which could be as memorable as 1981 or 1995.

Happy days. :lol:

[SMU]

On this mornings GFS 00z, looks like the HP is slower to actually establish itself over greenland with regards to its core but only a little mind but yeah the GFS is looking good. I havent viewed the ECM yet but last night when i checked the ecm 12z emsembles I thought to myself, If i hadnt seen the 12z ecm charts before hand.. anyone could have argued that the ECM ensembles actually showed what the GFS was showing with temps dipping off with the easterly then the cold hpa's temporarily letting up before cooling off again.

I guess what im suggesting is that maybe the models including the ECM may have been trying to work out a reload senario a bit futher down the line.

Anyway ... time to check that 00z ecm and ukmo !

The second best thing about the ECM is its good wavelengths at 192- Much better blocking developing again around greenland....

S

[Iceberg]

Just to help comparison, ECM at roughly the same time from yesterday and today.

[Iceberg]

This is my chart of the morning and is backed up by the ECM raising heights over Greenland onthis run.

A 1060 GH, with a draw all the way from the Northpole itself ready for Christmas and a direct route for Santa, cause this High wouldn't be going anywhere quickly.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Lets not forgetting whilst looking at the models, that the GFS is still prone to wobbles, but just as much as any other model.

The ECM has never been 100% accurate (although typically the most accurate), but one scenario predicted in the mid term incorrectly does not tarnish its creditability.

Lets just hope we keep a level head when the model forecasts are the other way around.

For me, ECM is an improvement, and GEFS Ensembles still looking good. However, the later looks a tad (2m temp) warmer (but the outcome is still cold) than previous runs.

The GEFS op run is also falling in line with the rest of the members on ppn, with no real wild outputs this morning.

Also comments about not getting to work due to snow on Monday, on a previous page, would be unlikely. As above, the ppn is low, so no blizzards or drifts on Monday i'm afraid.

There is certainly some changes this morning, but nothing to worry about, and nothing that again could not change back/further.

Edited December 11, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[Eugene]

Atlantic breakdown is a long long way away according to ECM 00Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

[SLEETY]

Well done ECM credibility saved

That dutch guy was right last night aftr all

On a serious note,the Ecm has always been a fairly consistent model,so why has it been so horribly inconsistent the last week or so,at the very time we needed to be on top form,very odd.

Lots of exciting weather to go through in the days ahead

Edited December 11, 2009 by SLEETY

[Eugene]

Well i've noticed ECM being inconsistent many times during the last year to 18 months, i've mentioned it many times so it's not just recently, i`m going to be keeping a close eye on ECMWF in 2010 and see if its all everybody says it is.

Frosty's thougths should be very good this morning much more positive than yesterdays morning as he bases his thoughts on ECM :lol:

[03jtrickey]

I've never been quite so nervous when looking at an ECM run. Thrilled to see it has backtracked! Looks like the cold spell is on (I have yet to check the GFS though, I hope that hasn't radically change. What an exciting week of viewing.

d).

[mountain shadow]

Jesus christ is it the UKMO's turn to spit the dummy out this morning ? doesnt look too appealing to me lol.

I suggest you look again.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

On the whole, great runs for snow potential for the south and east. The North and West will have to wait for decent retrogression to Greenland to pull in more of a Northerly, however it will still be below average everywhere for a while.

[ChartViewer]

This is my chart of the morning and is backed up by the ECM raising heights over Greenland onthis run.

A 1060 GH, with a draw all the way from the Northpole itself ready for Christmas and a direct route for Santa, cause this High wouldn't be going anywhere quickly.

Iceberg,

That chart is really a thing of rare beauty. Look at those deep blues all around it and yet

that 1060 TRUE Greenland High just glows like a beacon.

Truely wonderful chart. One to keep that one.

[Snowmad79]

This is my chart of the morning and is backed up by the ECM raising heights over Greenland onthis run.

A 1060 GH, with a draw all the way from the Northpole itself ready for Christmas and a direct route for Santa, cause this High wouldn't be going anywhere quickly.

Certainly is a georgous chart if ever I saw one !. If im totally honest with ya though Im starting to wish for the typical HP stuck over the uk senario for the simple reason that Im starting to struggle to get all this model ouput around medulla oblongata. Its getting way to complicated even for me to judge whats going to happen from one day to the next with such complicated synoptic development. Bring back the simple weather and evolutions please (joke)!

Never the less, bitterly arctic / siberian cold , snow or what ever it does appear this could well be quite a prolonged colder spell regardless of whether the atlantic makes another appearance later on or not.

[03jtrickey]

what cold spell is this i dont think there is going to be one now because of this downgrade and the ecm, everything is just for the southeast and apparently its going to be 9c here according to the meto on tuesday. :lol:

The cold spell hasn't even started yet. There is no downgrade the morning, the ECM is much better! Tuesday is slightly warmer because it comes between an Easterly and a Northeasterly blast, so it will be a short-lived interlude. Finally, this is one of the best model setups for cold I have seen, and great consistency especially from the GFS.

[carinthian]

Morning all, great winter charts from all the models this morning. Quite a significant cold spell on the cards for the Europe . The important fact is the block will not be easily moved, so the lengthy cold spell starts today.

The finer details evolve on a daily basis, but if the upper low circulation gets established over France, the cold will be here for a long period. From the next 72 hours,we will start to look at snow potential, where and to what amounts,no one knows just yet.

C

[David-kig]

Morning all, great winter charts from all the models this morning. Quite a significant cold spell on the cards for the Europe . The important fact is the block will not be easily moved, so the lengthy cold spell starts today.

The finer details evolve on a daily basis, but if the upper low circulation gets established over France, the cold will be here for a long period. From the next 72 hours,we will start to look at snow potential, where and to what amounts,no one knows just yet.

C

mmm is there enough agreement upto 144h though. it aint on the bag yet things will still change

[Methuselah]

A polite request: :lol:

With things going mad on the forum, we are having to be rather ruthless in our deletion of 'one-line wonders'!

If you all put said posts in the appropriate threads, we'd have more time to read short posts (in here) to see if they're relevant, rather than just binning them???

Help us to help you!!! :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

The GFS still looks much much colder for early next week.. but apart from that, closer agreement this morning on some kind of cold potentially snowy easterly which is pleasing.

Edited December 11, 2009 by NorthantsSnow