Model Output Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

No real change. Still a bitter easterly with the cold more or less identical to the 12Z.

[Snow Queen one]

Snow addict there is a good chance that the ECM is wrong read what is being said there are post all ove the internet forums saying the ECM is missing data which will make it's final output wrong.

This is not a history shows us situation.

Why is it some people cannot read the post we are still having posts about how wrong the ECM is compared to others. Read what is being said it is missing data it is wrong because of a computer fault. Granted it would be the best model and has backtracked before but this time it is not working properly.

Edited December 10, 2009 by Snow Queen one

[Neilsouth]

No real change. Still a bitter easterly with the cold more or less identical to the 12Z.

True , i'd say it's looking nailed to be bloody cold on monday with the RISK of snow

[TEITS]

If anyone is wondering what Steve M is referring to with the ECM control run then click the link below.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

The ECM control run (blue line) brings in some serious cold!

[Snowaddict]

TBH this thread needs cleaning up & the some of the nonsence posted deleted- that should remove about 10 pages.... ( Not yours ^^ I add)

I am 99.9% the ECM is wrong based on the ensemble mean( GEFS) the ECM ensembles ( Especially the control), the rest of the model suite- ic the UKMO & of course the modelling of this whole evolution from the start-

S

Steve, is it your opinion then that ECMWF evolution is flawed?

Take GFS @ T+96, the differences are just simply astounding... Bitter easterly once again on the 18Z..

Do you have any further info on that potential flaw in this evening's ECMWF as mentioned by a previous member?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z is looking good again.

Thats a huge plus because i half expected a ecm repeat!

We are surely going to find out in the morning whats what here.

This is agony.

[kold weather]

The 18z pretty much identical to the 12z but then I'd have expected that, I'm far less certain about the 0z GFS. As long as that stays inline then I think things will stil lbe all to play for.

From a personal point of veiw, I really do want the GFS to be right as it would give my home location a few cms of snow I'm sure of it!

Badboy, did you see the 168hrs chart that predicted us to be under a big depression. It is a VERY good model but then so are the other big 3 as well, and its certainly can be wrong and has been wrong a fair number of times before as well.

[Snowaddict]

Snow addict there is a good chance that the ECM is wrong read what is being said there are post all ove the internet forums saying the ECM is missing data which will make it's final output wrong.

This is not a history shows us situation.

Hi Snow Queen,

I'm one of the biggest cold rampers around so I hope it isn't either... I really do hope that the ECMWF evolution is flawed...

Excellent GFS 18Z out to T+96..

[Neilsouth]

Bitter across the south , snow risk still

Shortwave coming down now

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

[John Snow]

GFS is definitely an upgrade in terms of snow, looks game on again after the gloom of that now discredited ECM forecast

Edited December 10, 2009 by John Snow

[NorthantsSnow]

Mass relief as the GFS sticks to its guns, if anything upgrading the cold early on. So will it be the ECM that is forced to backtrack tomorrow am? The plot thickens!

Very good run this so far and the cold is so very close to the reliable. I could see snow showers across much of the SE and East Anglia on Monday. Lincs would also be affected. Not sure how far inland the showers would track, but it'd be interesting to find out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

relief 18Z not followed ECMWF, very cold but dry easterly for monday, only snow in se, monday is still FI though as clearly seen with the uncertainty, very nervy look in morning, ECM 00Z key

Edited December 10, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Altostratus]

Looks like a good run to me. At least it hasn't followed ECM. FI should be interesting. Roll on tomorrows runs...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

If anyone is wondering what Steve M is referring to with the ECM control run then click the link below.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

The ECM control run (blue line) brings in some serious cold!

Dve,its an outrageous outlier!!

Those ecm ensembles are really really poor mate.

I just dont know what to think but i have a bad feeling we have been here before mate.

[John Snow]

The shortwave with the crippling snow behind it from yesterday looks back in business too, 18Z most definitely an upgrade, thank god

[Frosty.]

18z out to 84hrs on meteociel now, I dont see a problem.

Yep it looks good so far, totally different to the ecm 12z but the 00z will be the acid test I feel. Might have to keep the champagne on ice.

[SMU]

Steve, is it your opinion then that ECMWF evolution is flawed?

Take GFS @ T+96, the differences are just simply astounding... Bitter easterly once again on the 18Z..

Do you have any further info on that potential flaw in this evening's ECMWF as mentioned by a previous member?

Not flawed- just wrong in this incidence..... ( for reasons highlighted above )

Looking at t108 I think this is going to be a peach for the SE...... because the shortwave is coming just slightly further west from the 12z-

S

Edited December 10, 2009 by Steve Murr

[weather eater]

ofcoarse its been wrong all the models have been wrong but it was the first to prog a easterly,

its not the only model that has downgraded this event,

and if its not the big cheese then how come most of the forum look apon the ecm as the holygrail why is there such a downbeat mood if people dont think its more than just a run.

i hope it is wrong trust me i want this to happen as much as anyone.

but this is not just one run from the ecm this mornings was a downgrade aswell although still cool not the freeze we were thought would happen.

and i agree tomorrow will be intresting like today.

im cetain the block buildingover us is not going as far north as some think.

my opion is cold air first then let the fronts do there stuff its not working out this way,

and there also possibility the high could retreat se.

It’s not about favouring one model over the other it’s about being objective, trying to take in all the evidence and not jump ship just because one piece of the jigsaw says jump. The ECM is a great model, I rate it over the GFS but that doesn’t mean its right every time. Models are for viewing with your head not your heart.

[Neilsouth]

Nice East/North east winds all day monday,monday night and into tuesday! ( ea/se )

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

[kold weather]

relief 18Z not followed ECMWF, very cold but dry easterly for monday, only snow in se, monday is still FI though as clearly seen with the uncertainty

Its not going to be the 18z that backs down, my real fear is waking up and seeing the downgrade. Till then just about anything could happen however.

HD, it is an outlier but the control run is using the same data as the op run but comes out with a different evolution. This is so key because it shows this could go either way still.

Stunning 18z GFS though it has to be said, probably would be some good snow at home.

[cyclonic happiness]

126+ hrs

WOW!!! look at that low over scandi with tight isobars blasting the cold air this way, and that greenland high makes me want to cry! :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

Edited December 10, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Matt Jones]

The stage from next wednesday is the biggy for me on the GFS run, the first cold shot barely delivers, need to see that LP rush down from the NE, between the two cold shots 0C uppers approach from the north before the real cold air can get to us. East coast marginal for monday/tuesday I feel.

[smich]

Ha! GFS not budging one little inch.

Why, when one model varies so much (ECM) people hang their hats just one run escapes me.

GFS ( and even more the GFS parallel) and also the UKMO have been quite uncompromising for a few days now.

One model is going to end up with egg on it's face here and my money is on it being the Euro

smich

[wysiwyg]

Mass relief as the GFS sticks to its guns, if anything upgrading the cold early on. So will it be the ECM that is forced to backtrack tomorrow am? The plot thickens!

*giggle* the ECM will produce an output based on what data is fed into it - if they keep plugging rubbish in - it will keep churning rubbish out. Reality is the programmers and data technicians will be working feverishly to identify why it's at odds with the other major models and sorting out a fix. Also, the forecasters at the ECMWF will all be acting cool as cucumbers and using their knowledge and experience to produce a forecast that is worthy of being sold to its customers. (I wouldn't mind betting there have been a few off the record calls to NOAA as well)

Bottom line is - the weather will do what it does regardless of the fact that certain models have tried to invert the poles this evening. These models are tools that need to be used with care alongside the myriad of other tools that we have at our disposal when forecasting.

My personal view is that the GFS has go it closer and more accurately modelled here, however the detailed synoptics and actual weather of a small water bound island that accounts for a tiny fraction of the GFS coverage cannot be detemined from any of these models after about 5 days

[Neilsouth]

Deep blue , brr across the south east

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-96.png?18

Come on shortwave stop slacking !

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png