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Nw Severe Flooding Thread - 19Th Nov Onwards.


Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Dangerous situation in Southeast Wales. 4 cavers trapped in cave full of water, emergency service are there but situation is serious following heavy rain today, some minor flooding of roads in that area. Lets hope not more victims of this weather. Its a reminder how dangerous this can be

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

Eaxctly on cue with the New Moon enhancement you say. Did you forecast anything like this then? Genuine question.

Not sure a .01% chance can be forecast.

I happened to be away whilst this event happened so unsure of the forecast buildup.

I do seem to remember the GFS having a stinker of a low for last Friday at something out at T200+. I remember thinking if that comes off there will be trouble...but assumed it to be FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl

Just heard a report that some houses flooded out in Kendal - Kentmere Valley starting to flood and people moving out

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

Well Carlisle got away with it this time, however flooding was reported in the Denton Holme area, and the Willow-Holme area of the city.

However i strongly disagree with the EA statment saying that the new flood defence worked a treat, as river levels were now where near 2005 hieght

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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

I remember October was so dry, now November has been exceptionally wet. I think this is a trend we'll see a lot more of and more frequently in the future.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

Has anyone heard from Red Raven? He's not been online since Nov 19th and living in Lorton, he would have been right in the heart of things. I believe a bridge in Lorton has been washed away. His website is working, so he must have power.

I imagine he's got better things to do right now!

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Has anyone heard from Red Raven? He's not been online since Nov 19th and living in Lorton, he would have been right in the heart of things. I believe a bridge in Lorton has been washed away. His website is working, so he must have power.

I imagine he's got better things to do right now!

been watching sky news their could be another bridge go down any time

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Red Raven doesn't post very often. Apart from Friday the previous post was the 3rd so I wouldn't worry too much.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Lol! - that’s like saying the Atlantic Ocean is man made because we might have had a slight effect on sea temps! I don’t remember us building it! in that case you could say everything effects the atmosphere to a certain extent even our movement, with chaos theory etc, so that since we walked the earth there’s been no 'natural' weather! but the weather is still driven by these great natural forces like the sun, the oceans, landmasses, stratosphere etc.. we didn’t exactly place them there so weather is still natural IMO!

Back on topic - Just been watching BBC news 24 about the bridges and situation in Cumbria, some amazing footage of the aftermath and damage in Cockermouth, just amazing height reached by the rivers. Must be a terrible situation for the residents and hope things get back to normal as quick as possible. As well as this someone is missing on the river Usk near Brecon in Wales and a canoeist died on the river Dart on Dartmoor:(

I love extreme weather and would love to see something like this, from a safe place obviously. I just wish it didn’t come with the effects to people and property etc.:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl

Its gone a bit mental in Glasgow over the past hour and a half. Very heavy rain and strong gusts.

Has this to be on all night? This won't do the ground much good at all.

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

Its gone a bit mental in Glasgow over the past hour and a half. Very heavy rain and strong gusts.

Has this to be on all night? This won't do the ground much good at all.

Yep, very wet and windy! The rain has not stopped since lunch time either although the river here doesn't seem to be that high (surprisingly!), surface floodoing is pretty bad though! I think it is to continue tonight but hopefuly the rain will die off a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Totally agree, weather09. It wasn't long ago I was told on this very forum that Climate Change (ex-Global Warming) and weather were not linked. Now Prof James Curran of Sepa goes against that thought process.

It's currently hammering down with rain outside, it's very windy too. The reason? An Atlantic low is edging over western Scotland, with associated weather front giving the weather - NOT the CLIMATE.

I truly despair - and yet another fine example of the BBC pandering to the pro-warming lobby. It's sickening - taking advantage of a severe weather to further their own cause.

Well they do have pro warmer planted there or did. Perhaps the prof is misquoted.

Anyway hopefully the rain will ease in the area. It's also going to be rather difficult to repair those bridges during winter.

Going back to flood management. In areas of the country where they've knowingly built on flood plains perhaps they ought too consider building them on stilts. Yes they will have to take the worst case sceniro as well into account.

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Yep, very true - and I get annoyed too by the constant attribution of every weather event to GW. However if GW does manifest itself in a tangible way, then what we'll experience is 'weather'. Here in Cumbria we've now had a 100-year flood event and a 1000-year flood event within 5 years. I'm not saying its 100% certain that this is attributable to GW, but it's natural to start taking it as a serious possibility, and for people involved with flood risk management, it would irresponsible not to, wouldn't it?

As i have been led to understand the figures 1 in 100, 1 in 1000 etc refer to the chance of it happening in any given year, rather than it only likely to happen once in every 1000 years :cc_confused:

Or is it the BBC / government using every possible opportunity to mis-lead over climate again?

Edit

This seems to back up that thought

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/37837.aspx

Edited by windswept
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Posted
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK

As i have been led to understand the figures 1 in 100, 1 in 1000 etc refer to the chance of it happening in any given year, rather than it only likely to happen once in every 1000 years :cc_confused:

Or is it the BBC / government using every possible opportunity to mis-lead over climate again?

Edit

This seems to back up that thought

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/37837.aspx

yeh, you're quite right in a hundred year really mean a 1% chance per year. But point i'm making remains the same

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Woman on channel 5 News just mentioned there are new fears of flooding in the North tongiht after more rain..

Plus 2 more victims of the flooding...Her words

one of the victims might be something I heard this morning about a Canoeist

who got stuck in a swollen river in Devon...

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

No doubt my geography teacher will be blaming this on global warming...

Sad to see the loss of life. Hopefully the clean up operation can begin soon. Lots of damage to homes and bridges, i wonder how long that bridge going to last in Workington?

Edited by mark bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Looks like a bit more to come yet then:

gfs_kili_eur12.png

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_RAIN_SFC_48_00Z.png

Rtavn244.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland

another 100mm could fall on the south west facing slopesin cumbria, again it looks quite concerning up there. those people have suffered enough as it is.

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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

New Meto warning for Cumbria and SW Scotland. Up to 100mm.

Looking the Meto rainfall model perhaps the rainfall will affect the Eden basin more than last Thurdays event.

The lack of rainfall in the Upper Eden Valley was why Carlisle escaped flooding last week.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

Yep. Tomorrow poses more of a risk to Appleby than Thursday's rain, simply because it'll probably rain in Mallerstang too.

Shows how bad it's been when the forecast plays down 100mm worth of rain!

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland

looks like some parts of ireland and britain are in for more flooding for the next 6-8days, with successions of atlantic lows sweeping in bringing bands of heavy rain and strong winds.

Just what we dont need, some parts of western ireland are still in dire straights.Its not looking good.

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