Backtrack's Winter Forecast 09-10

[Backtrack]

This is my winter forecast which was made using medium to long range charts.

With the unsettled weather theme to continue for a while yet, what will winter hold? Find out today!

For those of you wondering if this winter is going to be a cold one, the odds are looking quite slim with an El Nino dominated winter, bringing milder temperatures, unsettled weather and warm southerly winds.

As you know the offical start date for winter is the 1st of December. So my winter forecast will be from December to February although snow is common in March.

December:

Based on the current charts it's looking possible that the start of December will start off rather cool with maximum temperatures of 4-7c with winds in an Easterly direction - It's also looking probable that December will return in style with light sleet and snow showers for Northern England and Scotland. As we move towards the 3rd onwards the cold theme continues with an increased risk in snow across the UK with winds in a North/North East direction meaning some cold air will feed into the UK bringing further sleet and snow showers. As we move on from the begining of the month and look towards the middle it's looking likely that the unsettled and mild weather will return bringing rain and breezy weather to many places. Looking towards Christmas then, and at this stage theres around a 50% chance of a cold spell happening around Christmas that could lead to a white Christmas.

January:

The start of January is looking wet and windy with low pressure dominating. This theme will continue throughout most of January until around mid-month. By this time we can expect a cold spell that will bring wintry conditions back to the UK for a time. Obviously it's hard to predict at this range but i suspect that by the time the cold spell is over many places will of seen the first snowfall of the winter.

February:

Into February and based on current chart models this is looking the coldest month with winds generally in a Northerly direction which will bring snow to Scotland, Northern England and Wales but some cold spells will be very cold and snowy during this month with rather low solar activity and a weak El Nino. This month will be the coldest of the winter months i'm almost certain of this, I believe that by the time this month is over almost everyone will of seen some decent snow here in the UK.

Some models are suggesting a cold to very cold winter, as are some forecasts.

Others are suggesting a mild winter along with some forecasts. My forecasts have been based on the charts and I think will be fairly accurate. I hope you enjoyed reading.

Backtrack. :lol:

Edited November 17, 2009 by Backtrack

[Ben_Cambs]

Nice forecast, an enjoyable read and i hope your forecast is right! :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nice forecast, an enjoyable read and i hope your forecast is right! :lol:

I'll settle for that, well put forecast, dec easterly showing on 12Z but miles in FI,

SUGAR! didnt mean to 'quote' that above post

Edited November 17, 2009 by mark forster 630

[LomondSnowstorm]

Couldn't have put it better myself

I might just be tempted to have a go at an LRF myself.

[Alex95]

A very good attempt at a forecast there I would say, you never know but you may just beat the Met Office!

[Methuselah]

Good luck with it, backtrack...I hope you're right!

[Fozfoster]

Well Done fella, sounds like a good forecast to me. good luck

[Backtrack]

Thanks people

I am pretty confident that is what will happen. Based on my forecast i'd say we have a nice winter to come.

One thing I didn't research into was frosty nights. I know we will get a few cold, frosty nights next week - Other than that I didn't look into it.

I guess I will update my forecast every week or so, to keep it up to date.

[Stuart]

yep Hope that come ture

[Gavin P]

I don't think you'll be far out with this Backtrack.

The main thing I'm looking at this winter of how volatile it could be. I think we'll have severe Atlantic storms. Periods of very quiet, mild weather and yes, some pretty potent colder interludes as well. I think people will be shocked at just how changeable this winter turns out to be.

[Backtrack]

BFTP is predicting a very mild start to December... I say cold, it's going to be really interesting to see how it plans out, one of us has to be right.

[SteveB]

BFTP is predicting a very mild start to December... I say cold, it's going to be really interesting to see how it plans out, one of us has to be right.

Could be an average start to December, then you both will be wrong.

Good read you forecast, look forward to seeing how it pans out.

[Backtrack]

Could be an average start to December, then you both will be wrong.

Good read you forecast, look forward to seeing how it pans out.

Cheers Steve.

[MR EXTREMES]

good forecast lets hope nino weakens very soon.:lol:

but overall very good forecast many thanks.

[Backtrack]

Wow, i'm suprised at how accurate i've been so far!

[Neilsouth]

Yeh so far spot on for dec , lets hope it continues