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cookie, October 26, 2009 in Extreme weather worldwide
WDPN32 PGTW 261500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)WARNING NR 03//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED ATA FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERNPERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATEDINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITEIMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVEPASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTWAND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUSTSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTWINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTEDSTORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARDOUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THENORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBEDIN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TOTYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILLREMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UPTO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFTHE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICALWIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFTOF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN.WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TOTAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED AT
A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTED
STORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED
IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UP
TO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT
OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN.
WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TO
TAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.
I know it's a long way off but looking at the projected track, could this be another trouble make for the Phillipines?
yup this is going to cause major issues again for the poor very battered Philippines
yes James it will cause problems if it stays on track and sustains strength
we now have a typhoon MIRINAE
mulity agency track
still very much on course to hit the Philippines
Visible pic from a few hours ago before it got dark and the latest cloud top heights.
thanks for posting mate, clearly shows this isn't as big size wise as the others we have had this year, but smaller typhoons can be just as strong.
Mirinae is an impressive little typhoon with a solid central dense overcast and excellent banding. Mirinae has bene in a favourable environment through it's lifetime which is why it is now an 85kt cat 2 typhoon. Waters are around 30C and outflow is good. However, shear ppears to be increasing, so the rapid intensification of the last couple days will probably not continue, though the outflow and warm sea temperatures should still allow some further intensification into a cat 3 before landfall in the Philippines. As has been highlighted, the Philippines will get more flooding with this and some damaging winds too. A remarkably strong subtropical ridge to the north of Mirinae will move in tandem with the typhoon enforcing a westwards heading throughout the next 5 days, meaning Mirinae will likely make Vietnam it's next target after the Philippines. However, Mirinae should be a lot weaker by then.
thank goodness you're back after my feeble attempt to hold the fort.
still looks to hit as cat1/2
I'd say that's a fair estimate Cookie, and you can see just how close Mirinae is to landfall in the Philippines by looking at that image too.
Mirinae has continued to move westwards towards the Philippines and has intensified slightly to 90kts. Good outflow and warm sea temperatures have eased the effects of moderate shear, but not enough to allow significant intensification over the last 24hrs. Mirinae will weaken as it tracks over land, and will probably not recover that much as sea temps are marginal in the South China Sea currently. With persistant ridging to the north, Vietnam still looks like Mirinae's second target.
The Philippines are not in good condition to deal with Mirinae. Flooding is still present from Parma, and if not- the ground is very saturated. This could be another disaster for the Philippines.
some area's under
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)
Mirinae has made landfall on the Philippines. The structure is degrading along with convectional coverage, though convection remains quite intense over the centre. Mirinae will soon emerge off the west coast and then track quickly westwards across the South China Sea.
The track over the Philippines has greatly weakened Mirinae, and intensity has been reduced to 50kts. The circulation is still well defined but convection is lacking. Moderate shearis impinging on the storm, along with some dry air wrapping around the circulation. Waters are marginal in temperature aswell. Thus, further weaekning is likely prior to landfall in southern Vietnam. A general westwards track is forecast but a cold northerly air surge may deflect Mirinae southwestwards for a time. There is a small chance Mirinae could move south of Vietnam and remain over water tracking towards the Malay Peninsula, but even if this did occur, Mirinae would likely dissipate due to the hostile environment.
Mirinae weakened to 40kts this morning and looked on death's door. Since then, some intense convection has exploded over the LLC, reviving the storm. Intensity has recovered back up to 50kts. Mirinae is still moving just south of west towards Vietnam. Landfall will occur within the next 24hrs, where dissipation will rapidly ensue.
Mirinae surprised me a bit this morning. A fairly well defined eye appeared in the middle of a robust central dense overcast and the storm was upgraded to a cat 1 typhoon prior to landfall in southeastern Vietnam. JTWC officially raised the intensity to 65kts but commented that dvorak numbers 3 hours earlier suggested an intensity of 90kts, which would have equalled the first peak intensity. Quite why this intensification occured I don't quite know, especially as further weakening was forecast due to moderate shear and dry air.
Mirinae is now rapidly dissipating over land. There won't be much left of the circulation after midnight.
final warning was issued earlier on this.
thanks for the updates mate
Death toll from Mirinae is 16 in the Philippines, the only reason it wasn't higher was due to fast motion over the storm ravaged country. Damage totals have not yet been gathered for Vietnam where Mirinae unexpectedly made landfall as a typhoon yesterday.
hopefully it wont be to bad. but if it was unexpected like you said bit more worrying.
Well, the landfall was fully expected, however, Mirinae was only expected to be a 40kt tropical storm. The storm instead rapidly intensified and was officially at 65kts at landfall, though the intensity could have been as high as 90kts.
Unfortuantely, this has caused more bad news, as 40 people have died in Vietnam, more than twice the number in the Philippines. This brings the total death toll to 56, and this number may rise as people are still missing.
sad news, thanks for the updates :o
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