Southern Hemisphere: Invest Thread 2009/2010

[Somerset Squall]

South Indian Ocean:

95S has continued to move eastwards south of Jakarta, Indonesia. The disturbance has continued to weaken partly due to land interaction but also increasing vertical wind shear. The system has become highly disorganised with substantially reduced convection which is no longer showing much rotation. It is now unlikely this system will become a tropical cyclone.

97S has changed little in organisation over the last 24hrs. Convection has become a little more persistant, but any circulation is still ill defined. Moderate to high shear has arrived today, preventing further consolidation of 97S. As the season ended at the end of April, this is hardly surprising as much of the South Indian Ocean is now characterised by high shear, typical at this time of year. Unless this shear eases, 97S won't be long for this world.

South Pacific:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

South Indian Ocean:

95S has dissipated.

97S has dissipated.

An off season invest, 99S, has formed almost 400 miles north-northwest of Cocos Island. 99S is located in an area of moderate shear, but shear is expected to become unseasonably low over the next day or two as 99S heads towards the island. With sea temps still around 28-29C, and a recent increase of convection near the LLC, 99S has a fair shot at becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or two.

South Pacific:

No invests.

Edited June 8, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

South Indian Ocean:

99S dissipated.

Another off season invest, 91S, has formed at 6S, 92.5E, northeast of Cocos Islands. Shear is currently low, and sea temps are around 27C. The invest consists of a large mass of convection which has been showing signs of rotation over the last few hours. Cooler waters and moderate shear lie to the southwest, but it's worth noting that shear is unusually low in this area at present, which may promote some slow development.

South Pacific:

No invests.