When The Weather Forecast Goes Horribly Wrong.

[Nick L]

You sure about that one? I can tell you now that the BBC predicted heavy prolonged snowfall over the Midlands starting from the evening of Feb 7th - 9th, and got it right. The heaviest and most persistent snow was undoubtedly on the 9th. BBC weather said a milder westerly airflow would be slowly introduced to the already, much colder airmass over England on the 9th.

Because of this, heavy snowfall sat across the Midlands for throughout much of the day, but during late in the evening the milder air had arrived. I can remember looking at the map of the UK, and the Midlands was under a swathe of white with the forecaster (I forget who it was now) stressing how the snow would just sit over the Midlands.

I'd say out we got around 8inches from the 8th-9th.

They predicted the 8th spot on. That was a good 6 inches of snow that day. The following day was forecasted to be cloudy and benign - and from what I heard it was far from it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You sure about that one? I can tell you now that the BBC predicted heavy prolonged snowfall over the Midlands starting from the evening of Feb 7th - 9th, and got it right. The heaviest and most persistent snow was undoubtedly on the 9th. BBC weather said a milder westerly airflow would be slowly introduced to the already, much colder airmass over England on the 9th.

Because of this, heavy snowfall sat across the Midlands for throughout much of the day, but during late in the evening the milder air had arrived. I can remember looking at the map of the UK, and the Midlands was under a swathe of white with the forecaster (I forget who it was now) stressing how the snow would just sit over the Midlands.

I'd say out we got around 8inches from the 8th-9th.

Yeah it was fantastic 8-9 feb 07, but short lived as mild air arrived by the 10th, by the end of the 10th all thawed

[Nick L]

Cloudy and benign? C'mon, are you sure? I've criticised BBC weather many times for being vague but credit where it's due. I can remember the event like it only happened yesterday. Feb 8th had some persistent moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall during the entire day. I remember watching the latest BBC weather update and them saying that it would be more of the same on the 9th with the snowfall just sitting over the Midlands, with the colder airmass not moving anywhere fast but eventually being replaced by a slightly milder airmass from the west.

After the decent snowfall on the 8th when I saw that forecast, well, I was excited to say the least. It turned out to be some of the best snowfall seen for some time. Didn't take long to melt, mind.

I honestly don't remember the Beeb predicting the 9th correctly. I was going to Rome in the morning. I watched the Thursday 10.30pm forecast and it showed cloudy, dull and cold - so I felt safe in the knowledge that I would miss nothing. Left for the airport at 6am, arrived in Rome late afternoon and received texts from home saying it had bucketed it down. I was gutted because I didn't expect it and I missed it!

[weather eater]

Nearly on topic. Note precipitation Light.

AIR -2.3 °C

ROAD SURF. -1.7 °C

PRECIPIT. LIGHT

ROAD COND. SNOW ON THE ROAD

[Nick L]

Nearly on topic. Note precipitation Light.

AIR -2.3 °C

ROAD SURF. -1.7 °C

PRECIPIT. LIGHT

ROAD COND. SNOW ON THE ROAD

Where? When?

[weather eater]

Where? When?

lapland about 20 mins ago.

[Nick L]

Don't want to delve to much into this. I think you may be partly correct. I was reading around on the Internet about the period of snowfall in question, and it was expected that further snowfall would affect parts of Wales and the NW on the 9th, not the Midlands.

Here are links to statements from the Met Office regarding both February 8th and 9th.

February 8th 2007 Snowfall

February 9th 2007 Forecast

Yeah they may have forecasted it on the morning of the 9th - but as I say I was on my way to the airport!

[MAF]

Where? When?

lapland about 20 mins ago.

cant remember the exact year, but not that long ago. the forum was buzzing with the potential of a big winter event. met office and bbc had it in their forecasts, as did many other sites. and it got as close as T-6 and then just disappeared. TEITS was crying as the "beast from the east" just didn't happen, and Steve Murr gave a report as to what happened (or didn't happen as it was)

there was a major post mortem done on the models and forecasts, it was a massive letdown to many people here, including me.

[Snowyowl9]

On february 9th 2007 GFS got it all wrong a few days out,UKMO was showing a blizzard like low with east winds.

Then it all went further south showing a smaller low to miss us,just a channel low after the first snow on the 8th,then it deceided to come further noth Wales got the heaviest of the snow in the end,remember seeing the radar.

[Marcus_surfer]

It was either winter 2007 or 2008, a morning of heavy rain was forecast, instead we had rain in the morning followed by 6 hours of heavy snow

[Nick L]

cant remember the exact year, but not that long ago. the forum was buzzing with the potential of a big winter event. met office and bbc had it in their forecasts, as did many other sites. and it got as close as T-6 and then just disappeared. TEITS was crying as the "beast from the east" just didn't happen, and Steve Murr gave a report as to what happened (or didn't happen as it was)

there was a major post mortem done on the models and forecasts, it was a massive letdown to many people here, including me.

I have heard about that one, glad to say I was not a member of NW at that time!

[James M]

cant remember the exact year, but not that long ago. the forum was buzzing with the potential of a big winter event. met office and bbc had it in their forecasts, as did many other sites. and it got as close as T-6 and then just disappeared. TEITS was crying as the "beast from the east" just didn't happen, and Steve Murr gave a report as to what happened (or didn't happen as it was)

there was a major post mortem done on the models and forecasts, it was a massive letdown to many people here, including me.

Was that the Dec 2005 easterly? although there was an easterly of sorts it wasn't the charts had promised I think, unless I'm remembering thing incorrectly, or maybe that time was it Jan 2006? I think I remember a few 87 revisited charts around then.

Edited October 26, 2009 by James M

[snowking]

Was that the Dec 2005 easterly? although there was an easterly of sorts it wasn't the charts had promised I think, unless I'm remembering thing incorrectly, or maybe that time was it Jan 2006? I think I remember a few 87 revisited charts around then.

See i thought that was a reference to Feb/Mar 05 (it might actually have been March 1st)

I seem to remember after days of snow showers that wouldnt quite settle for that long due to the time of year and strengthening solar strength (which actually played into our hands with convective activity during the day). There was then a forecast of some very heavy snowfall for most of the eastern side of the UK, with figures of 20-30cms being touted on the local BBC Look East forecast the evening before. What actually happened, away from the downs, the wolds and the north york moors/pennines, was a warm sector moved slowly northward and lead to nothing but sleet for most

I was expecting to wake up to a blanket of snow and a continuation through the day, and woke up to slush and light sleet - shocker!

[MAF]

Was that the Dec 2005 easterly? although there was an easterly of sorts it wasn't the charts had promised I think, unless I'm remembering thing incorrectly, or maybe that time was it Jan 2006? I think I remember a few 87 revisited charts around then.

am really not sure James. being an old so and so that i am, my memory past last week fails me :lol: am sure if TEITS comes into this thread he will confirm the year

it was definitely wrist slashing stuff when what was forecast for many didn't materialise.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

:lol:

cant remember the exact year, but not that long ago. the forum was buzzing with the potential of a big winter event. met office and bbc had it in their forecasts, as did many other sites. and it got as close as T-6 and then just disappeared. TEITS was crying as the "beast from the east" just didn't happen, and Steve Murr gave a report as to what happened (or didn't happen as it was)

there was a major post mortem done on the models and forecasts, it was a massive letdown to many people here, including me.

I think 2nd half of feb 07, with the failed arctic high, feb 07 chart was buzzing the forum but we remained in mildish air

Edited October 27, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Weather-history]

I forgot about this one and it was an absolute shocker. Mid March 2004, severe weather warnings were issued for NW England at 10pm for disruptive snowfalls. Diane Oxberry, our local BBC weather presenter, had warned about these snowfalls earlier in the evening. At midnight, I was looking at the radar thinking to myself this was seriously going pear-shaped, the snow band was dying out. Next morning, I woke up and it still hadn't snowed or if it had it was hardly anything. We ended up only having a few flurries.

I don't think the local authorities were impressed, considering they were preparing for traffic disruption for next morning's rush hour.

The other side of the coin was late January 1996, when forecasters said snow largely wouldn't make it across the Pennines, ie forecast was for mainly dry weather with that easterly but my local experience says that the forecasters nearly always underestimate the penetration of snow showers in an easterly for this area. Result: travel chaos. The M602, a main artery into the city centre was snow covered.

[reef]

cant remember the exact year, but not that long ago. the forum was buzzing with the potential of a big winter event. met office and bbc had it in their forecasts, as did many other sites. and it got as close as T-6 and then just disappeared. TEITS was crying as the "beast from the east" just didn't happen, and Steve Murr gave a report as to what happened (or didn't happen as it was)

there was a major post mortem done on the models and forecasts, it was a massive letdown to many people here, including me.

Without a doubt that'll be the February 2001 event (though back in the snow watch days). The infamous Arctic high moved southwards into Scandinavia carrying with it 850hPa air that was as low as -28C. Almost all the forecasts were suggesting this would ridge in towards the UK bringing a spell on par with January 1987. This continued I believe until literally 24 hours out when a shortwave moved in from the Atlantic and cut off the cold feed a couple of hundred miles from the east coast. Scotland and some parts of Northern England did tap into the cold air a little and had some snow, but overall it was the biggest disappointment ever.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010203.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00220010203.gif

In the end we had an average February sandwiched in-between a cold January and March.

[Optimus Prime]

Remember a good ten years or so ago (February 1999 I think) we were predicted a 'big' snow event for the south in the night for the following day 10-20cm across the south. In the end it started raining fairly heavy first thing and then turned to snow about 10 ish and snowed all day and someof the evening but because it was so wet it didn't really lay just made a soggy sloppy mess.

And yeah Reef I remember that. We were all expecting a big snow and freeze event from that. Never happend.

Edited October 27, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[cheeky_monkey]

Snow forecast to move east but affecting only the west country with larger quantities than expected, while areas further east miss out, often with little 'warning', was a common forecast error and probably the most famous of all of these occurences was the west country blizzard of 18th~19th February 1978. I only vaguely remember this event as it was before my real weather interest but it is an excellent example of this error.

i remember the great west country blizzard very well...and it was never forecast to get much beyond dorset and somerset...so forecast was spot on! Where they did get it wrong was 3-4 days later when they forecast another deep low to zip across the western chanel and into france with another hefty blizzard forecast for sw england,,this time it swang into france causing huge amounts of snow even as far south as the french riveria...and nothing in the west country.

Edited October 27, 2009 by cheeky_monkey

[stewfox]

Remember a good ten years or so ago (February 1999 I think) we were predicted a 'big' snow event for the south in the night for the following day 10-20cm across the south. In the end it started raining fairly heavy first thing and then turned to snow about 10 ish and snowed all day and someof the evening but because it was so wet it didn't really lay just made a soggy sloppy mess.

I dont think that would qualify as getting the forcast 'horribly wrong'

You had wet snow and it didnt stick

I think that was the year I was living near slough (where we had rain) drove to Stoken Church (30 miles north) and heavy lying snow (500ft ish). I still have the pics somewhere of my journey, amazing what a few feet will do when things are so marginal.

[Ben_Cambs]

This year twice it happened. On the night of sunday 7th February, the met office had predicted two inches of snow, none fell. The next night as you may remember, a winter storm was forecasted, with up to 10cm of snow in my area. It rained for the good part of a day, then it started snowing at about 10pm. Only 1/2 hour later, it had turned back to rain.

It happened last October aswell, we missed out on the snow, it was rain

Another one was 3rd January 2008, when about 3 inches of snow was forecasted, but there was only an odd flurry.

The last one was sometime in June 2007, when i remember very heavy rain was forecast but none actually fell.

[Summer of 95]

At least one in three (in the last 2 years all) forecast snow events either don't happen at all or are much less severe than predicted in Shrewsbury; even with all the models, computers, satellites available these days the Shrewsbury Snow Shield defeats them all! Except for 8-9 Feb 2007 and 12 March 2006 that is, they're the only times we've had more than 5cm since 1997.

The worst forecast of all here, though, was early August 2003. Day after day of temperatures in the low to mid 30s were forecast with bright sunshine; what we got was:

One day (Sat 9th) over 30C, the first Monday was sunny until at around 7pm a sheet of gerey murk moved in and didn't shift till Wednesday night, keeping temps pegged in the low-mid 20s by day and 16-19 at night with drizzle (even when the BBC sat pics showed this muck over most of the western side of England their map still had 33, 34, 35 in red suns); Thursday and Friday were sunny but the strongest Cheshire Gap breeze I can recall kept it pegged back in the low 20s (even at 1pm when it was only 23C on came a local TV forecast promising 35 that day!); then the 10th was cloudy, humid and boring with a max of 25-26.

To get the daytime temps wrong by 10C five times in one week is an absolute shocker, what's more this was followed by 3 weeks of cloudy weather despite several more sunny forecasts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This year twice it happened. On the night of sunday 7th February, the met office had predicted two inches of snow, none fell. The next night as you may remember, a winter storm was forecasted, with up to 10cm of snow in my area. It rained for the good part of a day, then it started snowing at about 10pm. Only 1/2 hour later, it had turned back to rain.

It happened last October aswell, we missed out on the snow, it was rain

Another one was 3rd January 2008, when about 3 inches of snow was forecasted, but there was only an odd flurry.

The last one was sometime in June 2007, when i remember very heavy rain was forecast but none actually fell.

probably your elevation, I had lying snow on sunday 8th, but none on monday 9th, that was my last snow as well

[Ben_Cambs]

probably your elevation, I had lying snow on sunday 8th, but none on monday 9th, that was my last snow as well

[/quote/]

You are right. Locations in Wales which were above 200m asl did get quite a lot of snow. Later on in the week on the Thursday 12th, a band of snow hit our area for several hours, giving a snow cover of 6cm, but this was in the afternoon-evening

Edited October 28, 2009 by Snowman0697

[virtualsphere]

A few others have mentioned 9th Feb 2007 - definitely the worst one here. I seem to remember the forecast for 8th was fairly accurate with a small amount of snow, and then rain was forecasted for 9th. It rained until around 10 or 11am and then turned to heavy snow, which lasted for a large part of the day. In the end it was the deepest snow I've experienced since 1982 when I was only 4!