My First Amateur Attempt At A Winter Forcast

[Snowstorm1]

Winter Forcast 2009/10 Just December for Now...

Now i know some of you get all dead serious about people attempting forcasts and not backing it up with information so you know what if you dont want to read it dont read

Im just attempting and these are my thoughts

December

The first week of December will be windy and rainy in the first few days with temps ranging from 9C-13C.Then as the week progresses high pressure will take over for the end of the week with sunny and warm days for december 10C-13C but chilly night ranging from -1C - 3C.

The Second Week will continue a similar theme but the temps will drop slightly 8C - 11C.

Then As we enter the run upto christmas Low pressure will take over and at first winds will be veering from the west but by the wednesday they will veer northwesterly.Then during Thursday they will veer northerly and polar air flow will drain through the country brining at first snow showers for northern scotland but by the nighttime a polar low will sweep the country leaving a white christmas instore for most places . The only areas that could miss out are Southwest england but dont worry you will get some just later in the day. As i was saying during the day a front from the southwest could move through the southwest and up through the country and if this happens there will be a WHITE WONDERLAND!

And then through the last week the snow will go from western areas for a time because a battleground scenrio develops and as this happens eastern areas will see upto 1ft of snow lying in most places by the end of the week.And at the minuite i believe the cold will win out bringing the snow back to western areas of the uk just in time for the New Year.

At the minuite thats all im predicting but on November 1st i will attempt January

Hope you enjoyed the forcast and hopefully espcially the last 2weeks happen!

Edited October 19, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[Habsish]

Sorry About spelling

That's OK we have all done it. I suppose I should spell check this. But I can't be bothered to download what is needed to run the spell check for this site. Copy and paste into Word or something is an option.

H

[LomondSnowstorm]

certainly an enjoyable forecast!

looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the rest of the winter.

Can I ask what the accuracy estimate for this forecast is?

[Snowstorm1]

certainly an enjoyable forecast!

looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the rest of the winter.

Can I ask what the accuracy estimate for this forecast is?

hopefully 100% lmfao

[MR EXTREMES]

oh come guys,

the fella clearly stated it was his first go at this.

as for spelling and punctuation,

im the worst on net weather for it and dont take no notice its not a big deal i understood your post.

im not sure about polar low but hey this year is one to watch.

well done and thanks:hi:

im gonna do a forecast next winter so guys make sure you have your dictionaries with ya lol see.

i got some more info to take in before i try but reading jh gp bftp and paul b post teach me alot.

also watch for the ssw events amongst other thing could be very intresting indeed.

Edited October 19, 2009 by badboy657

[andy_leics22]

certainly an enjoyable forecast!

looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the rest of the winter.

Can I ask what the accuracy estimate for this forecast is?

It's a forecast based on hope rather than studying models but lets be honest, the BBC don't seem to accuractly predict past 2-3 weeks so whats the difference between using hope rather than what methods they use

[Mark Bayley]

Hope it comes off I want a white Christmas !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

great attempt, I hope right well the last 2 weeks, first week most likely right

my attempt, (of course based on no scientific stuff just what I think)

1st-7th Atlantic based weather conveyor belt like lows, loads of rain everywhere temps 8-12oC

8th-14th mild, atlantic type, but a northerly toppler around the 13th, snow for Scotland, East coast, then a very cold night for the UK on the 13th and 14th -6oC in Scotland sub zero everywhere

15th-21st Rain preceded by snow on the 15th over Scotland and Eastern England, coming in from west, then westerly low pressure stuff but polar maritime at times, bringing temporary snow to high levels

22nd-31st A mild Xmas period I think with Autumnal low after low type weather and gales at times, rain bands then brighter showery weather on alternate days, Any snow over 600m, temps from 6oC and 14oC in temporary warm sectors

Edited October 19, 2009 by mark forster 630

[MR EXTREMES]

To be fair I think the posts questioning his spelling and punctuation are a little below the belt because he is only 14 years old. I hope his forecast is correct, I never usually listen to any forecasts more than 1 month away from ANYONE because the accuracy to forecast more than 1 month is very small. I admire him having the guts to put that on here though, I wouldn't have the bottle to do that.

i totally agree and 14years old well done,

winters where always exciting for me when i was 14 and they still are now im 34 and cant spell so what,

we know what we mean lol,

and if your right well jh and pb better watch out lol.

Edited October 19, 2009 by badboy657

[Backtrack]

I really hope your forecast is correct mate, good first try!

For the guys up there criticizing his spellings I don't see the need, from what I can see there isnt any spelling mistakes in there.

Edited October 19, 2009 by Hancock

[ChartViewer]

I for one applaud him

Edited October 19, 2009 by Paul

[Snowstorm1]

Thankyou for all the good comments and helpfull ones And keep them coming!

[Backtrack]

Thankyou for all the good comments and helpfull ones And keep them coming!

Hey mate, I don't understand the charts either, I asked John Holmes to create a video on how to understand them, he is in the process of doing so, im looking forward to making my own forecasts too.

H

[Nights King]

Interesting although you must of had a bad holiday or sumin in west country...

"The only areas that could miss out are Southwest england but dont worry you will get some just later in the day"

i enjoyed reading it but its credibility dropped when you said we would miss out on a white xmas!

[Snowstorm1]

Interesting although you must of had a bad holiday or sumin in west country...

"The only areas that could miss out are Southwest england but dont worry you will get some just later in the day"

i enjoyed reading it but its credibility dropped when you said we would miss out on a white xmas!

Lol in a way you will get one just in the afternoon or early evening I think

Edited October 19, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[Guest]

Well done, it certainly is possible but only time will tell - if it all goes wrong don't be disheartened, just ask the old uns about the hurricane which was not supposed to happen in October 1987.

[Stuart]

Hope it comes off I want a white Christmas !!

me to mark but there may will be i hope

[Birkhill saints]

Toung in cheek,now do not weep,that cold east wind now it will sweep.I remember it when i was ten i,m 41 it"s coming again,now that old two joke is now away, net weather is here to stay,the only reason we post on here,is the rest are crap,now lets all cheer.

[Paul]

Removed a whole bunch of posts from this thread - the saying 'if you have nothing worthwhile to say, then say nothing at all' never rang truer..

This forum is for all ages, abilities, levels of knowledge and interests so let's bear that in mind please.

[Marcus_surfer]

A fun forecast to read, but you just made up your dream christmas day, with cold air over the UK and a frontal system pushing in from the west, its impossible to forecast this accurate

[MR EXTREMES]

A fun forecast to read, but you just made up your dream christmas day, with cold air over the UK and a frontal system pushing in from the west, its impossible to forecast this accurate

nothing is impossible when you look at days leading up to christmas 1963 it would be hard to imagine that boxing night the heavens opened and produced the badboy of winters that lasted until march,

now someone forecasted that somewhere in the uk long before it happened because theres always a slight degree of guess work in forcasting.

but hey if hes right well its a cert i will buy him a pint opps no a shandy because i dont think anyone would snub a white christmas,

when you can smile at a forecast wether it be to soon or not atleast hes not gone OTT its a good and very possible forecast.

and fingers crossed hes right because on gotta grand on down the bookies for white christmas:lol:

[The watcher]

To be honest I don't see why he should be criticised at all, his forecast has as much chance of coming off than anyone elses....I think we should have learned from last years winter forecasts that a guess is as good as any since a forecast based on Womans Intuition was last years most accurate. I think others here need to grow up...this young lad has showed more courage and maturity than some.

The Forecast:

......Explained very enthusiastically, few spelling mistakes but nobody is EVER perfect.

......Chance of happening? Every Chance.

......MOST IMPORTANTLY You have filled most of us with a little bit of Christmas spirit which lately is very needed.

......Your terminology is spot on and synoptics plausible.

......What can I say, I hope you take every opportunity you can to delve deeper into meteorology and I certainly hope you continue to post up forecasts, we can be a bit critical here at times but from this range it takes more than courage to do what you did and I for one certainly wish it to be an accurate forecast.

Well Done

Chris

[Richie V]

oh come guys,

the fella clearly stated it was his first go at this.

as for spelling and punctuation,

im the worst on net weather for it and dont take no notice its not a big deal i understood your post.

im not sure about polar low but hey this year is one to watch.

well done and thanks:hi:

im gonna do a forecast next winter so guys make sure you have your dictionaries with ya lol see.

i got some more info to take in before i try but reading jh gp bftp and paul b post teach me alot.

also watch for the ssw events amongst other thing could be very intresting indeed.

Good on him for having a go, braver than me. As for the highlighted, why are people so damn concerned about punctuation and speflling on here. If the post can be understood then people should lay off. I aint the worlds best speller, people have had a jibe at mee too in the past and It's damn annoying. If you read this Mr Holmes I'm sure you will agree. (had a joking dig at him on another thread about punctuation)

Netweather tip of the day........................ If you want to type the degrees celcuis icon i.e 21ºC then for the º mark engauge your numeric lock, hold Alt and on the numeric pad type 1086 and release Alt. Looks better than 21C

Edited October 19, 2009 by Chassisbot

[LomondSnowstorm]

i totally agree and 14years old well done,

winters where always exciting for me when i was 14 and they still are now im 34 and cant spell so what,

we know what we mean lol,

and if your right well jh and pb better watch out lol.

oh, to be 14 again (sigh)........

anyway, thanks for the much needed early xmas cheer on the forum, and for reminding us that netweather is about the joy of weather forecasting.

Sorry for the slightly sarcastic 'accuracy' dig, I doubt anyone on here could produce a forecast any better than that at this time of year, certainly not me!

It's good to have a fellow snow-obsessed teen on the forums, let's just hope a few more join

Good Luck with forecasting the rest of Winter

Calum

Edited October 19, 2009 by cwpiper

[Nights King]

Lol in a way you will get one just in the afternoon or early evening I think

Only messin. Well done for giving it a go, you are far braver than me.

Hey it would be great if you got it right. Well apart from the west country bit. lol