Super Typhoon Lupit

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94W rapidly organises into a tropical depression:

JTWC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. TD 22W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12

HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE

AS INDICATED IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A 132118Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS

CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG DEEP CONVECTION

ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 131944Z QUIKSCAT

SHOWED 40-50 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS, HOWEVER, THESE WINDS WERE LOCATED

UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION AND WERE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUK, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SSW OF THE CENTER

INDICATED ONLY 10-KNOT WESTERLIES AND SLP NEAR 1010 MB SUPPORTING

THE TD CLASSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE

CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW SATELLITE FIXES AS

WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.

3. FORECAST REASONING

A. THIS SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 22W.

B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATING A

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF GUAM WHILE THE JGSM,

ECMWF, UKMO AND WBAR SUPPORT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF GUAM.

BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS APPEAR TO ERRONEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND

TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. ALL FIELDS INDICATE A ZONAL PATTERN

WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STR. THIS

FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE STR AND TRACK THE

SYSTEM SOUTH OF GUAM. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY

THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD REACH 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY NEAR GUAM

THEN SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD

OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 48.

C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE

TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY TO

TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS

FAVORS THE ECMWF, UKMO AND JGSM SOLUTIONS.//

NNNN

[Cookie]

yup organized very fast

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the image Cookie.

It shows 22W has a little bit of work to do before becoming a tropical storm. Although the banding is there and circulation well defined, the depression is lacking central convection. Intensity has been increased to 30kts. 22W is moving westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. Eventually, 22W will round the axis of the ridge and turn towards the northwest, though the timing of this is uncertain. If the ridge strengthens or builds westwards, 22W will remain on a westward track which will put it closer to the Philippines. As it stands, 22W is expected to pass to the northeast (remember this was the forecast for Parma so it needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt). The depression is in a favourable environment for intensification as shear is low, waters are warm or hot, and there is good radial outflow over the system. Therefore, 22W will likely become a typhoon in a few days time. Faster strengthening should commence once the convection builds over the LLC.

[Cookie]

heading towards warm waters

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has been building over the centre of 22W overnight and banding as also become increasingly impressive. Intensity has been increased to 40kts. 22W is moving very quickly west-northwestwards currently, but is expected to slow and turn towards the north in about 48hrs as the storm finds a break in the ridge to the north. This motion is expected to be temporary however, as by 96hrs the ridge is expected to build back in to the north enforcing a westwards heading again. Conditions are excellent with high ocean heat content, non-exsistant shear and brilliant outflow. 22W is probably going to become a powerful typhoon. Worryingly, the westward heading in about 4 days time will place 22W very near the Philippines, and probably as a cat 4 typhoon at this point. The Philippines are, once again, in danger.

[Cookie]

its looking bad for the poor Philippines again

[sirpsycho]

keep an eye on this directory for the latest visible satellite pics. They provide the intensity too.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Very surprised JMA are still keeping this system a tropical depression, 22W is getting better organised each hour. JTWC's current intensity estimate of 45kts seems much nearer the mark:

[Somerset Squall]

22W continues to strengthen, and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lupit, with intensity now at 55kts. Spiral banding surrounds a fully convection wrapped LLC. Lupit is sat in a very favourable environment for intensification, so is expected to intensify quickly over the next few days. The track forecast is still the same- Lupit will move west-northwest for the next day or so before a more poleward turn occurs as the storm moves into a weakness in the steering ridge, followed by a turn towards the west again as the ridge restrengthens. The Philippines still look in the firing line of Lupit, so hopefully prepations are being made but as the Philippines have now recovered yet from devestating Ketsana/Parma I fear there is not much that can be done.

[Cookie]

Another big one

UW - CIMSS

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 7.2.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 15 OCT 2009 Time : 200000 UTC

Lat : 12:45:47 N Lon : 138:10:41 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

3.5 / 985.4mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

(3hr avg)

3.5 3.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Center Temp : -34.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC

Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr

Weakening Flag : OFF

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[sirpsycho]

keep an eye on this directory for the latest visible satellite pics. They provide the intensity too.

Arrgh, can't edit my own post so here is the new link. The link above no longer works because the storm got named.

[Somerset Squall]

Lupit continues to strengthen and is now a 65kt, cat 1 typhoon. Lupit has an impressive central dense overcast feature and a rugged eye. Further intensification is likely, perhaps rapid and shear is low and ocean heat content remains high. JTWC show a peak of 125kts before Lupit makes landfall in Luzon, northern Philippines. Lupit is then expected to weaken over the rugged terrain of Luzon before emerging in the south China Sea in about 5 days. This track is expected due to fairly persistant ridging to the north. Unless the ridge unexpectedly weakens, the Philippines look very likely to receive a visit from Lupit, maybe as a super typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Satellite infrared run of the West Pacific, look at Lupit grow in size!! A massive typhoon. I really feel for the Philippines. This isn't going to be good

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/westpac/movies/gmsirn/gmsirnjava.html

[Somerset Squall]

Lupit has entered an accelerated intensification phase, and intensity has jumped up to 85kts, making the typhoon a cat 2. The eye has shrunk and become much better defined over the last few hours. It appears that Lupit has every chance of becoming a cat 5 prior to landfall in northern Luzon, particularly if the current trend continues.

[Cookie]

its old but this is scary

i hope more nature intervenes and spares the Philippians

[Cookie]

its huge but seems to be tracking a bit further north

[Somerset Squall]

its huge but seems to be tracking a bit further north

I agree Cookie, the weakeness in the ridge seems to be more pronounced than expected, causing a more sharp turn to the north. As the ridge builds back in, a westward motion should resume. Latest track forecasts take Lupit just north of Luzon, but still too close to avoid dangerous winds and further flooding rains.

Intensity is now at 105kts, making Lupit a cat 3. Further rapid strengthening is predicted, and Lupit still has a chance to become a cat 5 when approaching northern Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Lupit is now moving slowly northwards into the weakeness in the subtropical steering ridge created by a passing trough. Once the trough has swung through, the ridge will build back in to the north, forcing a westward heading once more towards the Philippines. The trough is likely to enhance poleward outflow, so further quick intensification is expected. Intensity is now 115kts, making Lupit a cat 4. JTWC are officially forecasting a peak of 135kts, but as I said before, Lupit could easily become a cat 5 given the conditions.

[Somerset Squall]

Lupit has undergone another burst of rapid intensification overnight, and is now a 130kt super typhoon. Lupit is actually now moving northeastwards, but should sharply turn to the west soon. Lupit has an impressive eye which is large and well defined. Poleward outflow has increased as a trough swings by to the north, which has facilitated the current rapid intensfication. We seem to be getting a lot of powerful storms recently in this basin! Let's hope it doesn't completly flatten the Philippines again.

[Cookie]

track for this still not set in stone

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, a turn back to the west seems likely but just when is more difficult to figure. The later the turn, the further dangerous Lupit will be away from the Philippines when it reaches that far west. Land interaction will weaken Lupit in about 4 days time, but of course if Lupit moves further north then weakening will be delayed. Intensity has increased to 135kts, and just an increase of a few knots will make Lupit a cat 5 which is still possible. Lupit's pressure has fallen to 919mb, and the super typhoon is exhibting a very well defined eye embedded in a solid central dense overcast. This is clearly an extremley dangerous storm and needs to be closely watched through the coming days.

[Cookie]

I noticed a few of this systems this year that its really complicated to forecast and know where their going to track.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, seems to be a few cases of variable and weak steering currents recently, but at least we have a general idea with Lupit. Parma however, was a completely different story!

[Cookie]

Indeed, seems to be a few cases of variable and weak steering currents recently, but at least we have a general idea with Lupit. Parma however, was a completely different story!

Parma was enjoying being a pain.