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masheeuk

What Happened To Global Warming

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Oh yes it has! as if this would get by some of our postersbiggrin.gif

Maybe it is a good idea that we do all explore the area though as some quarters seem to mis-construe the piece.

We live on a planet who's climatic extremes oscillate inside a band we recognise as our 'climate'. There are many different forcings to drag averages up or down over the short (Nino,Nina type fluctuations) ,medium (PDO etc) and long term (precession).

We now have another forcing that is gaining in it's influence namely our own emissions.

Of course, to begin with, mans climate forcing is nowhere near as powerful as that of some of the other 'players' we encounter over the years. As mans influence grows the impact upon the set of 'natural' forcings will become ever more noticeable to the point that AGW will start to overpower some of the negative forcings and Augment the positive ones.

At this time we are crawling into the PDO-ve phase which could last (as it has in the past) for up to 30yrs. This may mean that if the PDO influence is powerful enough any warming signature will be over-ridden by this cycle's tendency to lower temps across the northern hemisphere.

Now, for me, here's the rub!

If you look back over the last 3 periods of PDO-ve you'll see that they appear to be becoming ever weaker (the max extents appear to be milding). This PDO was due in the late 90's or early 00's but didn't cross the thresholds until very recently (with the help of the then La Nino).

My mull is 'have we already seen the warming influence of AGW already been impacting the PDO'?

You have to remember that the last PDO-ve was also in the period of global dimming (where we know we ,negatively, impacted world temps with our emissions).

The warnings that we may face global temp stagnation/reduction over the short term are bound up with our current PDO-ve status.

Though I'm nagged about it I wonder whether we did enter what should have been the start of the PDP-ve phase after the heat losses from the 98' super Nino (and that was a lot of ocean heat lost to the atmosphere!!!) but that mans warming of the planet pushed temps to the point that none of the thresholds were crossed and the phase wasn't called. If that were true then even the run of mini La Nina's over the past few years didn't manage to trip the threshold until very recently.

Are we already 1/2 way through the current PDO and AGW has moderated it's impacts thus far?

It would certainly put a different shine on the calls for a global flattening of temps over the past 10yrs if , in reality, they should have been falling over that period.

We may well look back at this period as the one that showed how big AGW's influence is becoming if it is near overturning of the negative PDO phase.

Obviously once the downward pull of PDO-ve is over temps will continue on there accelerating upwards trend and we have already had warnings that the warming will return, with a vengeance, once any natural 'downward pull' on them is over.

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Obviously once the downward pull of PDO-ve is over temps will continue on there accelerating upwards trend and we have already had warnings that the warming will return, with a vengeance, once any natural 'downward pull' on them is over.

Don't fret yourself GW,the world as we know it will have long ceased to be,by then. Your time and mine will almost certainly be up,and as for our offspring,will they be experiencing the twaddle and lies and half-baked guesses which are being foisted upon us lot right now? Probably,but under a different guise,who knows. As the mighty Neil Young once shrewdly observed, "it's over". A difficult beast to slay,for sure. But it is all over 'bar the shouting'. Hah,that's what we are here forsmile.gif !!

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Apologies if this has already been posted by anybody

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8299079.stm

Hot on the heels of this,just heard an announcement on BBC Radio 2 that Jeremy Vine has a climate expert and two sceptics in live debate on today's show! No idea who the participants actually are,tho'. Quick,tune in,it's just started (though the topic in question is towards the end of the show from what I can gather). I've got a sneaky feeling it's a reaction to cover up the 'damage' caused by the above item....

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Why would anyone feel the need to 'cover-up' after a pile of drivel... :ph34r:

It's always the same: hits/publicity first - science second?

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I've got a sneaky feeling it's a reaction to cover up the 'damage' caused by the above item....

Yep,I was right,it was indeed mentioned. And the brief article has only reinforced further my hardline denier stance. I'm surprised that you say it's drivel,Pete. Were you saying that when Paul the weatherguy was in full warm-ramping mode? I live in his broadcast area and I can assure you hardly a week went by when 'global warming' wasn't banged on about. This is a move in the right direction.

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Yep,I was right,it was indeed mentioned. And the brief article has only reinforced further my hardline denier stance. I'm surprised that you say it's drivel,Pete. Were you saying that when Paul the weatherguy was in full warm-ramping mode? I live in his broadcast area and I can assure you hardly a week went by when 'global warming' wasn't banged on about. This is a move in the right direction.

No LG. My opinion of the mad, maniacal, ramping 'warmers' is precisely the same...But then, I don't have a website/blog in desperate need of hits?

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That was the most pathetic attempt at defending AGW that I have yet heard (well maybe not). Injecting Palladium, guilt trip about fridges and call centres etc. Where is the science? Come on you guys you have to do better than that.

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oh my what happen to global warming here im starting to get the feeling that climate is not playing ball on the warming front,

spring early summer in america record cold in some places but now in october classed as brutal cold i cant wait to see how this winter turns out in both europe and the usa.

http://www.accuweather.com/

and its record breaking cold.

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I suspect that Paul Hudson is keeping an open mind and is quite prepared too look at alternative theories. You never one maybe right.

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Oh yes it has! as if this would get by some of our postersbiggrin.gif

Maybe it is a good idea that we do all explore the area though as some quarters seem to mis-construe the piece.

We live on a planet who's climatic extremes oscillate inside a band we recognise as our 'climate'. There are many different forcings to drag averages up or down over the short (Nino,Nina type fluctuations) ,medium (PDO etc) and long term (precession).

We now have another forcing that is gaining in it's influence namely our own emissions.

Of course, to begin with, mans climate forcing is nowhere near as powerful as that of some of the other 'players' we encounter over the years. As mans influence grows the impact upon the set of 'natural' forcings will become ever more noticeable to the point that AGW will start to overpower some of the negative forcings and Augment the positive ones.

At this time we are crawling into the PDO-ve phase which could last (as it has in the past) for up to 30yrs. This may mean that if the PDO influence is powerful enough any warming signature will be over-ridden by this cycle's tendency to lower temps across the northern hemisphere.

Now, for me, here's the rub!

If you look back over the last 3 periods of PDO-ve you'll see that they appear to be becoming ever weaker (the max extents appear to be milding). This PDO was due in the late 90's or early 00's but didn't cross the thresholds until very recently (with the help of the then La Nino).

My mull is 'have we already seen the warming influence of AGW already been impacting the PDO'?

You have to remember that the last PDO-ve was also in the period of global dimming (where we know we ,negatively, impacted world temps with our emissions).

The warnings that we may face global temp stagnation/reduction over the short term are bound up with our current PDO-ve status.

Though I'm nagged about it I wonder whether we did enter what should have been the start of the PDP-ve phase after the heat losses from the 98' super Nino (and that was a lot of ocean heat lost to the atmosphere!!!) but that mans warming of the planet pushed temps to the point that none of the thresholds were crossed and the phase wasn't called. If that were true then even the run of mini La Nina's over the past few years didn't manage to trip the threshold until very recently.

Are we already 1/2 way through the current PDO and AGW has moderated it's impacts thus far?

It would certainly put a different shine on the calls for a global flattening of temps over the past 10yrs if , in reality, they should have been falling over that period.

We may well look back at this period as the one that showed how big AGW's influence is becoming if it is near overturning of the negative PDO phase.

Obviously once the downward pull of PDO-ve is over temps will continue on there accelerating upwards trend and we have already had warnings that the warming will return, with a vengeance, once any natural 'downward pull' on them is over.

Some good analysis there GW and I pretty much feel that full contextual analysis of feedback-mechanism trends are just as important as other corellations.

Its easy for people on both side of the fence to obfuscate the issue.

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you can lsen to the jeremy vine show through this link, it's the last feature of today's show.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...ws/jeremy-vine/

Thanks for that, cyclonic happiness :wallbash: I probably looked it up too soon after the end of the show (it always takes a little while before these things turn up on iplayer).

:blush:

CB

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oh my what happen to global warming here im starting to get the feeling that climate is not playing ball on the warming front,

spring early summer in america record cold in some places but now in october classed as brutal cold i cant wait to see how this winter turns out in both europe and the usa.

http://www.accuweather.com/

and its record breaking cold.

Aw c'mon BB. You know it's only weather and not climate. GISS will soon be telling us that the period you refer to was the warmest in the NH since blah blah...

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1220052/Austria-sees-earliest-snow-history-America-sees-lowest-temperatures-50-years-So-did-global-warming-go.html

The Mail is also wondering what happened to (A)GW.

As was the Times on Sunday, plus another paper (can't remember which one.....I'm very tired).

Perhaps others in the media and some secretly sceptical sientists may be emboldened by these moves and speak out against the so-called consensus.

It's not before time, either. I see that ACTONCO2 have excelled with their latest offering of propaganda aimed at children, with weeping bunny rabbits and drowning dogs, all caused by grown-ups. I would have thought it was illegal to broadcast propaganda aimed squarely at children.

A(GW)bubble definitely bursting now, I think, as do all bubbles, eventually.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1220052/Austria-sees-earliest-snow-history-America-sees-lowest-temperatures-50-years-So-did-global-warming-go.html

The Mail is also wondering what happened to (A)GW.

As was the Times on Sunday, plus another paper (can't remember which one.....I'm very tired).

Perhaps others in the media and some secretly sceptical sientists may be emboldened by these moves and speak out against the so-called consensus.

It's not before time, either. I see that ACTONCO2 have excelled with their latest offering of propaganda aimed at children, with weeping bunny rabbits and drowning dogs, all caused by grown-ups. I would have thought it was illegal to broadcast propaganda aimed squarely at children.

A(GW)bubble definitely bursting now, I think, as do all bubbles, eventually.

How come, then, that September was the second warmest in the satellite record and October is also running well above average according to the UAH (Run by sceptic Dr Roy Spencer) daily MSU records? Are the satellites about to burst as well :winky:

That was the most pathetic attempt at defending AGW that I have yet heard (well maybe not). Injecting Palladium, guilt trip about fridges and call centres etc. Where is the science? Come on you guys you have to do better than that.

And the sceptics what do they offer as 'science'? Calling scientists names? Running about calling environmentalists 'environa*is' or 'water melons' or saying the IPPC is a socialist conspiracy? 'Pathetic' doesn't do that justice.

No, the sceptics are going to have a rotten couple of years because (and here I make a bold and completely uncorroborated up statement, just to make sceptics at home :D ) warming is to return with avengence :(

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One question,

How is it that if a load of evidence comes out that supports AGW, it merely strengthens the consensus and says nothing about AGW scepticism, yet if the slightest bit of evidence might not support AGW, it suddenly means that the "AGW bubble is bursting"? I suggest, in two words, confirmation bias.

That said, I agree to some extent with Noggin's stance on AGW propoganda aimed at children. I've mentioned before that when I was aged about 9-11, I saw a lot of stuff regarding AGW and took up a very extreme set of views based on it, including even wanting to see cars banned at one stage. Young children are mostly very impressionable- if it says so in an authoritative looking source, it must be right! It was only when I got more inquisitive (particularly around age 13) that my views started to moderate substantially.

Regarding global warming, in a very short termist perspective it exists, because the world has been warming over the last year, and also over the last 2 years. Taking a longer term perspective GISS shows warming over the last 10 years but CRU and NCDC do not. Taking an even longer perspective- 30 years, 50 years or 100 years- global warming still exists.

My view is that global temperatures will probably stay at a similar level to 2009 over the next couple of years, leaving the consensus and the sceptics at loggerheads again...

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No, the sceptics are going to have a rotten couple of years because (and here I make a bold and completely uncorroborated up statement, just to make sceptics at home biggrin.gif ) warming is to return with avengence sad.gifhelp.gif

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No, the sceptics are going to have a rotten couple of years because (and here I make a bold and completely uncorroborated up statement, just to make sceptics at home biggrin.gif ) warming is to return with avengence sad.gif

I've no doubt it will,according to some people. That will be a little hard to swallow for those caught in the reality of what's going down. We'll see in due course,anyway. And it'll all be our fault - that you can bank on.

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Funny old thread this, it could just as well have been called, what’s happened to global cooling, as there seems to be scant signs of that.

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I don't know whether my support will be welcomed but I'm with Dev on this one.

As I've outlined before we are at the point where AGW's signal is gaining the momentum to impact the worlds normal suit of climate drivers. I'm glad we are not having this debate back in the dimmed period for we would have had a while to wait until warming was resumed (what with dimming and the -ve PDO) but even then our 'dimming' did not surpass the PDO beyond it's normal (ish) values. Why should that be?

I'd say that the 'milding ' of the PDO over the last 120yrs hints at the impacts that AGW is already having on this 'major' cyclical driver. If you thought that the accelerated warming through the past +ve phase of this cycle (as we dragged ourselves out of the 'dimmed period' then what do you think will occur when we have an unmolested phase of PDO+ve??

Seeing as the onset of this current PDO-ve seems a tad delayed (I know there are those who fervently disagree and use when the thresholds were crossed as their measure......which is sad as those temp thresholds are obviously open to AGW milding too!) and, as such, we are probably 1/2 way through this phase (and not just beginning it as the 'measurements' of it show). If our exit from PDO-ve is as molested as our move into it then 2015 for a resumption does not seem unrealistic (to me).

And ,as I've said , what of PDO+ve, unmolested by 'dimming' and with an extra 30 odd ppm of CO2 compared to it's last phase (holding any extra warmth in)???

We will have a healing ozone hole over Antarctica through the next PDO+ve (we are told this is likely) so we will begin to see much wider impacts there, we have Greenland in accelerated melt and ,as with high global temps, the Arctic mins records are all clustered around the past 10yrs.

So what do peeps think will occur when the PDO-ve is ever more counteracted by warming and it's positive phase is ever more augmented by it?

I'm just saddened that the tome of the sceptical folk leaves them open to such harsh judgements when the warming is renewed (above and beyond our past max's).smile.gif

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Can I just say that actually, nobody knows what the future holds - this applies equally to both sides of this debate.

At best, we can speculate about tomorrow, next week, next year, the next decade; if's, but's, maybe's and perhaps - there are very few definitives other than the Sun will rise and set on a daily basis. Perhaps it could be construed as boring or tedious to only talk in terms of possibilities but that's the reality, anyone who picks info (from either side) to support their stance and presents it as "this is what the future holds" is at the very best, no more than an educated guess.

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I agree G-W. As of now, there's not a shred of evidence that really supports the wilder of the 'sceptic's' claims...Unless, of course, one counts hearsay, anecdote, wishful thinking and confirmation bias as evidence?

But naturally, being sceptical, should anything in the way of substantial information come through, my mind will change accordingly. :drinks:

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No, the sceptics are going to have a rotten couple of years because (and here I make a bold and completely uncorroborated up statement, just to make sceptics at home biggrin.gif ) warming is to return with avengence sad.gifhelp.gif

poppycockrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

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