Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Patricia

Recommended Posts

Tropical Depression 19E has formed from invest 92e. Deep convection has consolidated over a well defined LLC. Conditions are favourable for further strengthening as shear is low and waters beneath the depression are warm. 19E is movig towards the northwest, and will reach cooler waters in a few days. Until then, intensification is likely and the system could become a strong tropical storm, and a hurricane can't be ruled out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we have Patricia

WTPZ34 KNHC 120236

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009

800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

PATRICIA.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 355

MILES...575 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SOME DECREASE

IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...17.9N 108.5W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

200 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

120240

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009

800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECAME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE VERY COLD

CLOUD TOPS THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. BASED UPON INCREASED

ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND

CONSENSUS T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE

SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM

PATRICIA IS THE 16TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THIS RELATIVELY BUSY EASTERN

NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.

A 2055Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS ALONG WITH THE LAST FEW VISIBLE

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALLOWS FOR A MODERATELY CONFIDENT INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/06. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-

LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS

NORTHWEST. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF PATRICIA

SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE IS

PROJECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE

RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE

LONGER RANGE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO LEAVE A WEAKENING VORTEX

IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF

CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS MAINTAIN A

STRONGER SYSTEM AND ADVECT IT AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS A

BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

PATRICIA HAS TWO...PERHAPS THREE...DAYS OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE

IT MOVES NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER

STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. CONVERSELY...THE

THERMODYNAMICS ARE MORE MIXED WITH QUITE WARM SSTS ALONG THE

CYCLONE'S PROJECTED TRACK...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC

CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE STATISTICAL LGEM

AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK PATRICIA NEAR 50 KT AT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE

THE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO LGEM/SHIPS...BUT DOES

INDICATE A MORE INTENSE TROPICAL STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC

FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.5W 35 KT

12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 40 KT

24HR VT 13/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 13/1200Z 21.1N 109.2W 50 KT

48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.8N 109.6W 50 KT

72HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 45 KT

96HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 35 KT

120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Convection is really exploding over Patricia now, and the convection is really intense. Southern Baja California need to be prepared from some serious rains it seems as the storm continues to head north-northwestwards towards land. Intensity has increased to 40kts, but this could be conservative as dvorak estimates suggest a higher intensity. We still can't rule out Patricia becoming a hurricane as the storm has another few days of low shear and warm sea temps. One limiting factor is stable air to the west which could retard development but the convection is certainly surviving well at present.

Patricia will eventually turn towards the west as a ridge builds in to the north. The timing of this turn is uncertain, the sooner the better for Baja California.

post-1820-1255364869409_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Patricia continues to strengthen, and intensity has risen to 50kts. Patricia is moving generally northwards now along the western periphery of a ridge over Mexico to the east. This ridge will re-orientate to the north of Patricia, which will cause an abrupt shift in track to the west. This is expected to occur sooner than originally anticipated, but Baja is still at significant risk from Patricia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Convection has vanished in association with Patricia this evening. Intensity is reduced to 45kts. The stable air I mentioned earlier could be the cause of the convection loss. Unless convection comes back soon, Patricia will be declared a remnant low. Assuming this doesn't happen, Patricia will weaken further anyway as sea temperatures drop with lattitude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×